Economic Downturn Magnitude and Duration Quantitative Study by Riskope (http://www.riskope.com), November 2008
Rational and sustainable risk management requires quantitative understanding of the crisis.
Duration Probabilities:
•30% less than 1.5 years (Spring 2010),
•80% less than 3 years (Fall 2011).
•10% longer than 6 years (past 2014)
Magnitude Probabilities:
•20% present situation will persist.
•25% significant worsening
•55% critical evolution of disservice
Details available upon request (http://www.riskope.com ).
These results can help building rational risk management strategies. Contact us.
Franco & Cesar Oboni
Riskope International
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