Noam Chomsky on Peak Oil & the UN Charter - The New World Order Part 3 (1998)

November 30, 1998 http://www.amazon.com/gp/redirect.html?ie=UTF8&location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww....

Watch the full lecture: http://thefilmarchived.blogspot.com/2010/08/noam-chomsky-on-new-world-order-1...

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines—sometimes rapidly—until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nations domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have described with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical logistic distribution curve (sometimes incorrectly compared to a bell-shaped curve) based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the Hubbert curve (that production stops rising and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles.

Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be. If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak. According to the Export Land Model, oil exports drop much more quickly than production drops due to domestic consumption increases in exporting countries. Supply shortfalls would cause the price of oil to increase sharply, unless demand is mitigated with planned conservation measures and use of alternatives.

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used. Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred, that oil production is on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly. As proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, a global depression is predicted, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market that might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a global recession was being made worse by a series of record oil prices.

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[karmicfabio]

He is predicting the increase in war in the gulf, ie Iraq and Afghanistan...brilliant.

[Gaznugget]

You are extremely wise, do you know that? I believe even in this world if you manage to get straight A's in school, go to university, and become a doctor or a business CEO for example, that's just being smart. But being wise in my opinion is a higher standard of intelligence that recognises what is truly important in this world. You can get a real jerk of an intelligent person who drives SUVs and doesn't care about people, but wisdom is much more important and vital especially with this issue.

[vince33x]

which amount to more than 3 Trillion Bbls of oil - far more than the reserves in the Middle-East - and we haven't even addressed the vast oil fields that are believed to exist in Russia. If we allowed Private oil companies to explore and drill, we'd find more oil than we'd know what to do with. The only reason Chomsky seems correct is because so many governments, including ours, have been prohibiting exploration and drilling.

[vince33x]

Chomsky is such an inveterate liar. One of the reasons new discoveries 'might' be declining is because governments, like our own, will not let oil companies explore and drill on government land - which is 85% of the western USA. Nevertheless, in the last two years there have been two massive oil discoveries, one in the Gulf of Mexico (which our nitwit-in-chief has put a moratorium on exploration and drilling) and off the east coast of Brazil. When you add in tar sands and oil shale

[Gaznugget]

@NegativeNick

Thank you. I just know for a fact that wisdom and intelligence can be 2 very different things. My grandmother for example has both great wisdom, and decent intelligence (she was a teacher of 4 to 5 launguages) yet my aunt (grandmother's daughter) has more intelligence (she's a great doctor) and although I love her dearly and respect her a lot, I believe she lacks wisdom, but then agan, so do most people. My grandmother is the wisest person I've ever known.

[NegativeNick]

@Gaznugget you are assuming wisdom is synonyms with empathy. I agree with you.

[truthteller19672]

@Gaznugget AH ! MY SISTER, EMBRACE HER AND YOU'LL RECEIVE HONER AND SHE WILL PLACE A CHAIN OF GRACE UPON YOUR NECK !

[truthteller19672]

I BERRIED MY DOG BACK IN 1975 , I AM GOING TO DRILL A STRAW SIZE HOLE INSERT A STRAW IN IT WITH A LITTLE PUMP AND EXTRACT THE OIL IT MADE , HOW MUCH OIL DO YOU THINK IT MADE ?

[searching68]

Wake up America! It's time... "THE REVOLUTION HAS STARTED"

Read “Common Sense 3.1” at ( revolution2.osixs.org )

"Spread the News"

[baihbalm]

@MillyVanillification nice comment

[redgeorgieredgeorgie]

@Gaznugget The world we live in is pretty terrible. Maybe one day we'll realise what we've been doing to ourselves and the planet and actually create a society that is sustainable and fair. Sadly I think the only way that's going to happen is if the collapses. Environmental, Economic and social. Just have to sit back and wait. (And practice on the "I told you so" line.)