Reasoning under uncertainty #0 - Introduction

This is an introduction to a video series I'm currently making, called "Reasoning uncer uncertainty". In this series, I aim to present probabilistic reasoning and Bayesian statistics. The math level will be moderate, but not zero. Some experience with algebraic expressions is recommended.

The first practical demonstration of the principles of probabilistic reasoning can be found
in clip number 3, "inverse implication".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWH4VXqnQ9Y

There a couple of examples (dice and weather) are used to show that you can do reasoning in the opposite direction of an implication. If this was pure deductive logic, this would be the fallacy of affirming the consequent.

If you want a solid foundations for the calculations done in that clip,
it's found at clip 2b - mathematical foundations.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXZtK6z-DU

For a firmer grip on the mathematical foundations, clip 2a, logic and set theory, can be recommended.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mdiV6bK_l8

Clip number 1 contains some quasi-philosophical musings on reasoning under uncertainty, where I describe why I'm interested in the subject.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpkTbPfQT10

Clip 2c - nitpicker's version, is strictly for those interested in an alternate, perhaps more rigorouse, axiomatic way of defining probability.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AVnu-lUosQ

Check out video #4 for a graphical representation of the ideas in this series. For those who find graphics easier than algebraic expressions, it may be illuminating:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va1HfQhrsbg

Category:

Howto & Style

Tags:

• Bayesian
• Bayes
• probability
• probabilistic
• logic
• reasoning
• rationality
• series

[jaysears]

Great topic. thanks for addressing it.

[trondreitan]

@jaysears Thanks!