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NRL Round 20 Preview.wmv
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Uploaded on Jul 19, 2011
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The market has over re-acted to the Dragons win over the Sharks last Monday night occupying almost 31% of the bookies market. They were impressive and no doubt are back on track after the Origin, but their win over the Sharks was exaggerated with centre Ben Pomeroy gifting the first two tries to the Saints early with schoolboy defence. The Sharks only had 20% of the ball in the first 30 minutes and tried to play catch up footy continuing to make errors, a cardinal sin when playing a Wayne Bennett coached team.
The four top teams the Dragons, the Sea Eagles, the Storm and the Broncos all have their best players back so we will get a good handle on the ratings from here. In the bookies Premiership market at 105% the top four teams command 84% of the interest, which leaves only 21% left for the other 12 teams.
The big concern over taking the skinny odds about the Dragons is they will struggle to make the important top two teams. We will probably know this crucial question after round 24 when the Dragons play the Storm in Melbourne. What a game that will be and the loser will likely finish third. If the Dragons lose this game their price could drift to double what it is now.
We are already on the Sea Eagles at 16.0 and will be looking to ensure we are in a winning position over the next few weeks by either laying back or backing the other chances. The finishing positions of the teams from 5th to 8th will probably decide what we do as they are all capable but with the exception of the Tigers will have to travel.
There is clearly very little between the top sides and injuries are likely to be influential. If all of the teams have no injuries and are playing at ANZ I still want to be on the Sea Eagles. I have no doubt they are the best team and Brett Stewart has been the icing on the cake, he is a super influence. My only concern is their two hot heads Matai and Watmough who can make errors and give dumb penalties away, the Storm and Dragons are more disciplined and rely on the opposition handing the ball over.
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