Pathetic Open Land Farming vs. Aeroponic Speedbox Production

Alternate title: "Open Land Farming Epic Fail".

I was wrong about sugarcane: as it turns out, it is only barely profitable in the Speedbox with a 30 year mortgage.

However, Branson still owes me $25 million, since switchgrass production in the Speedbox -is- profitable, with only a 15 or 20 year mortgage.

Open land farmed switchgrass produces 1000 to 1500 gallons of ethanol per acre. The Speedbox will produce 12,000 to 20,000 gallons per acre. Or, somewhere between about $8000 to $20,000 gross to the farmer per year. This is enough for the farmer to maintain a reasonable standard of living while paying down a 20 year mortgage, or a high standard while paying down a 30 year mortgage.

Unfortunately, there is a problem, and even worse, the problem will rely on government intervention. Given government's near perfect record of abysmal and epic failures in energy, planning, and economics the last 40 years, we are probably screwed here in the USA, even though the Speedbox can end oil imports in the span of ten years.

The first problem: it is profitable, but not nearly as profitable as growing most of the food crops. Before the free market supply and demand laws make it competitively profitable, who wants to grow switchgrass when one can grow strawberries or melons? Only a fool would chose switchgrass over more profitable crops. Even at 10 cents per pound, a Speedbox farmer still rakes in $81,000 gross from an acre of strawberries.

The natural progression of uncontrolled implementation of the Speedbox is to reduce the cost of food to almost nothing (a good thing) while bankrupting all non-Speedbox farmers (a bad thing). Once enough growers are producing strawberries, the price of strawberries drops to 1 cent per pound (market saturation levels of oversupply). Then the next most profitable crops are grown, with more and more Speedboxes continually being built as the news spreads about the ground floor profits for being the first to get their foot in the door. Many become rich men and women. Elsewhere, the rate of the rest of the open land farmers going bankrupt accelerates.

This progression continues until all food crops (including wheat and corn) are market saturated, and the price of food is almost free (as compared to current prices), and most of the open land farmers are bankrupt.

Then, and only then, does the comparative price point of switchgrass make it the most profitable crop to grow in Speedboxes.

This is very bad thing. It can be controlled properly, and so that switchgrass production skyrockets, ending oil imports in 10 years or less. More on this to come. Government tax penalties, or laws requiring that for every acre of anything else grown in a Speedbox, so must also be grown an acre of switchgrass. Like I said, we are pretty much screwed... since this would require intelligence, patriotism, and social responsibility on the part of government.

Corn ethanol produces 1.28 calories for every calorie used in its production. open land farmed food requires 2000 calories of energy to produce 1 food calorie. Open land farmed switchgrass produces 5.4 calories for each calorie its production consumes.

Speedbox switchgrass produces between 54 and 160 calories for each calorie consumed in its production. Speedbox food production requires less than 50 calories for each food calorie produced. The ethanol or fuel pellet production of the switchgrass can subsidize the food production: a positive gain proposition versus the negative loss proposition of open land farming. For the first time since the start of the "green revolution", sustainable agriculture. With limitless cheap fuel and the end of the CO2 and starvation and peak oil problems as an added bonus...

For more detailed information, see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switchgrass
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cellulosic_ethanol

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[TerraformingMaster]

1 year return on investment for the government plus 1 to 2 hundred thousand for the gov't in fees, maybe $50,000 for a melon rights lottery since the profits are less. It gets the boxes built, fast and cheap. It also creates a protective price floor for strawberries and melons if handled responsibly.

[TerraformingMaster]

The farmer can never grow strawberries ever again, unless they are fuel class strawberries, with the government setting the price, for 2-5-dimethylfuran octane replacement production. The farmer is required to build two more acres of speedboxes with his windfall, and one of these two acres MUST always produce DMF strawberries. Farmer merely breaks even on the DMF crop, but still has two other acres for some good profit. Hold a melons crop lottery also, leveraging the 2 most profitable crops.

[TerraformingMaster]

The key is regulating strawberry and melon prices to avoid overproduction, keeping strawberries from falling below $.85 / $.90 cents a pound wholesale. Each US State holds a yearly lottery, and 1500 winners each get a loan to build an acre of Speedboxes to grow strawberries. End of year, farmer has at least $600,000 net after paying back the loan for the land and the boxes. Government takes $100,000 or $200,000 of that. Catch is, the farmer can never grow strawberries, ever again.

[TerraformingMaster]

$30,000 an acre using prisoner labor and prison factories, much better than $130,000 an acre.

[TerraformingMaster]

This doesn't add up. If the interview is correct, then the Speedbox produces (3000000 / 16500) 181 * 5.4 times as much fuel for 1/9th the cost of slime, not 5.4 times as much. 981 times as much fuel, not 5.4 times as much, for 1/9 the cost.

This is reminiscent of "hydrogen cars" in California.

[TerraformingMaster]

w w w algaeindustrymagazine dotcom /aim-interview-sapphire-energy­s-ceo-dr-jason-pyle wikipedia --> sapphire energy --> click the 10th reference (interview)

According to Pyle's own words, "a one million barrel annual production would require three million acres".

But earlier, the PDF file from Sapphire Energy's web page had stated one million gallons from 300 acres. If the earlier estimate were accurate, it would only take (300*55 gallons) 16500 acres to produce a million barrels.

[jksatte]

I wish there was audio.

[TerraformingMaster]

@Submanca And if you are growing strawberries, you don't have to wait a year to finally get a crop in the second year. You get a crop the first year, 'right out of the box' so to speak.

[TerraformingMaster]

@Submanca This math does not compute. 3/4 of 1 acre would net $540,000 at a cost of $90,000.

[Submanca]

A nice thought but not very practical. I farm 30 acres of land now and make about $10,000 a year off it. Now it would be nice to make $540,000 per year but I don't have the $3.6 million nor do I think I could borrow it, it would take to build these speed boxes. I agree that farming is going to have to become more intensive to support the growing population. I think it will be more home gardens and people producing their own food.