Intro Game Theory (2007) Lect 15 of 23

This is one of two lectures thinking deeply and critically about uncertainty in situations of strategic interaction. (Note: lecture 14 was canceled) The first part of the lecture develops the operational subjective concept of probability, using the prices/odds set by the sports betting bookies at NZ's TAB to show how subjective probability, while personal, can be measured, by asking agents to "put their money where their mouth " is. The second part uses Gigerenzer's "natural frequency" method of communicating and thinking about uncertainty to explain inverse probability and Bayes theorem (no formulas please - only a "truth table" and, if you're a visual person, a graph, to develop "ballpark" boundedly rational assessments for inverse proabilities.)The original mp4s are perphaps bette rquality and are available available for download at http://uctv.canterbury.ac.nz/modules/journal/journalview.php?space_key=4&...

Category:

Education

Tags:

• GameTheory
• Economics
• Strategy
• StrategicThinking
• Risk
• Uncertainty
• SportsBetting