James Hansen's Worthless Climate Predictions

The earth is spectacularly failing to warm as predicted in the 1980s. But the same tired doomcasters just keep on shovellin' out the smelly stuff.

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[drkstrong]

Steve, you are being factually challenged on this. Hansen's models were the 1st ever such models & contained few factors in 1988, especially unknown at that time was the cooling role of aerosols. Once that was added in his & other predictions have been very good.

2nd I dont know where you got the black line from but it is not the official US global climate data. All the points are too low except 1998. Eg 2005 actually is higher than 1998. You also omit the last 3 years all of which are high.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong A more up to date comparison on pielkeclimatesci(dot)wordpress­(dot)com (search Hansen 1988) shows temperatures continuing to undershoot even Hansen's low predictions. And you are basically saying we should disregard the failure if hansen's breathless 1988 testimony because the latest models are "better". Yeah, until they've been given enough time to fail as well. Then you'll be making excuses for them, and producing new ones. This is the tactic of predictors of the rapture.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall In 1988 weather preiction models were very crude and inaccurate you were luck to get the weather right 24 hours ahead of time. They are much improved today with an acceptible accuracy of up to 3 days. So you are saying that we should disreguard weaher forecasts today because they were inaccurate in 22 years ago? That is false logic.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong We're talking climate, not weather.

[TheSailer99]

At +3C we all die. I call that worse.

[SteveWrathall]

@TheSailer99 Firstly, there is no evidence that the earth is warming +3 deg C/ century. There has been no statistically significant warming for the last 15 years. Secondly even if such a thing were to eventuate, even the hottest areas would not become uninhabitable, and there would be a huge increase to the temperate growing seasons.

[widebody123]

Steve, you are a victim of a disinformation campaign. Give it up, watch a game of cricket/rugby and when you've sobered up, research the facts.

[Baronstone]

@dbrotman You're an idiot! The data shows that the warming trend actually begain around 1850. Which was during the FIRST industrial revolution, the one where WATER wheels did all the work. I hope you're not trying to claim that water wheels produced CO2!

The fact is that the world is still in an ice age. We are in an interglacial period, the average global temp is 14.2 C and at the height of the ice age the global temps were 12 C. Thats a whole 2.2 degrees difference and below the high of 22 C!

[dbrotman]

@SteveWrathall Steve, did you look at the 1,100 year graph of surface temperature at the epa.gov site? The change in rate is pretty easy to identify beginning at year 1900, which coincides with the beginning of the industrial revolution. That data gives scientists a high level of confidence that the earth is warming faster over the last century than any time in the last 400 years. So you see, Steve, statistical trends are developed using data collected over longer time periods.

[theecanmole]

New Zealand's No 1 climate Blog Troll hits You Tube. Crawl back under your rock.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall No, the important point there is that models should not be disregarded now because earlier versions of them were less accurate. The weather was an illustration of that point.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall There is statistically significant warming at the 92% level (that means you have 1 chance of being right and 11 chances of being wrong. 15 years is also too short a time to look for such a trend. There has been no statitically significant warming or cooling in any 15 year period since 1850. Yet the warming trend over the last 50 years is 99.999% significant.