6. Hon DAVID PARKER (Labour) to the Minister of Finance: What is Treasurys most recent forecast for unemployment and when did he receive this forecast?
Hon BILL ENGLISH (Minister of Finance) : Treasurys latest full set of economic forecasts was presented in the Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2008. The central forecast showed a peak in the unemployment rate of 6.5 percent midway through 2010.
Hon David Parker: Has the Minister seen criticisms from both business and union leaders saying that the Minister should have been seeking more frequent forecasts on unemployment; and how can he make the best decisions without this crucial information in these extraordinary times?
Hon BILL ENGLISH: Treasury does its forecasts; it is beginning another forecast cycle. I expect I will find on my desk some preliminary estimates from that forecast cycle. It is important to understand that there is a difference—and the member, perhaps, does not know this—between forecasts and updates. Forecasts are when Treasury goes through its cycle to make its own judgments about where unemployment will get to. Probably every day, and certainly every couple of days, information comes across my desk that tells us what is actually happening to unemployment, and we monitor that closely.
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