Probability (part 7)
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Uploaded by khanacademy on May 3, 2008
More on conditional probability. Touch on Bayes' Theorem.
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@langengro -- To clarify even further, what he said was correct, what he wrote down was wrong.
He did write:
P(5/5 | N) * P(N) = P(5/5 | N)
He should have written:
P(5/5 | N) * P(N) = P(5/5 ∩ N)
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@langengro it means the same thing.
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very well explained. first it confused me that I read "25" instead of "2s" sometimes :/
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what if you can't draw out all of the possible outcomes, for example if u rolled a dice 100 times. is there a formula to determine the # of outcomes?
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awesome... great way to arrive at bayes theorem and to explain the relation to conditional probability.. really useful!
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Never mind people I think I have figured it out on my own. Or at least cleared up some misconceptions I had about things. I now understand that my odds of say getting a tails in six flips is 98.4% however my odds of getting said tails goes down with each failure contrary to what you might think. 98.4, 96.8, 93.75, 87.5, 75 ,and then finally 50% for the last flip. Funny that before you flip the first time you have increased odds of getting tails but your odds dwindle with each failure.
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one more thing if anybody reads this thats been messing with my head and the reason I started watching these vids is if you flip a coin 5 times and get heads every time your odds of getting a heads on flip 6 is still 1/2 yes but is it? I have trouble grasping that 6 heads in a row is 1/64 yet your chances of getting a heads is 1/2 when if you got one it had a 1/64 chance of happening. Your odds of getting a tails does not increase at all? shouldnt the odds of getting tails go up.
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can someone explain this to me if your odds of getting 5 heads is 1/32 on a normal coin then how come your odds of getting 5 heads when you have a bag of ten coins with one false one go down for a normal coin. Its just confusing I understand you have a pick of 9/10 coins but it just seems counter intuitive that your odds would decrease to about 1/35 but I guess the extra probability in the 1/10 makes up the difference?
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Botany bay? Botany Bay?!! But seriously, great videos! :)
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KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN!!!!
HairLikeCottonCandy 2 years ago 22
khan , it was too hard !! too complicated , u spoke so messy , i didn't understand :(
rezaeijavan 1 year ago 5