Nassim Nicholas Taleb Angry

Yeah, if Merton & Scholes got the Nobel and LTCM blew up by following their models, and Taleb has debunked them even to their face, then that sits well for Taleb. His point is that economists assume the future will be like the past, so they use means and standard deviations and beta to construct portfolios and figure risks going forward that are all based on a dead past, not realizing that past imbalances can lead to future crises that are NEW. NASDAQ 5,000 was a joke not a solid trendline.

plus one

nassim is god

give some examples and I'll explain why you are wrong.

searching for a guy that would treat me well.

Wow, imagine that. Basing important decisions on scientific reasoning and study. Of course thats the problem. Greed, going along with the mob, and ego cause people to be irrational.

This guy is a fucken genius, for purely pointing out that markets are comforted by models which don't work he should be given a Nobel. Ratings agencies and Big 4 accounting firms should be dissolved and rebuilt with people who aren't susceptible to "well bla bla bla" wrote a paper on it so therefore it must be true".

When I started reading his book I thought it was nonsense, by the moment I finished I realized he was genius.

he doesn't say everyone around him is wrong, he says the world is simply too complicated to make perfect predictions and thus any investment based upon a complex model that "cages risk" isn't fundamentally sound and eventually equivalent to gambling. Ideally, you highly diversify and invest in things that contain real value and/or productive capacity such as commodities and businesses.

we need more men like this