The Monty Hall Problem - Explained

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You've made it to the final round of a game show, and get to pick between 3 doors, one of which has a car behind it! You make your choice, and then the host decides to show you one of the wrong answers. He then offers you the chance to switch doors. Should you do it? Find out just how wrong human intuition can be in this classic Monty Hall Problem.

Written and created by Mitchell Moffit (twitter @mitchellmoffit) and Gregory Brown (twitter @whalewatchmeplz).

TWITTER: http://www.twitter.com/AsapSCIENCE
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Music by Mitchell Moffit
http://www.mitchellmoffit.com
http://www.twitter.com/mitchellmoffit
http://www.facebook.com/mitchellmoffit

Art by Gregory and Mitchell
http://www.gregorybrownart.tumblr.com
http://www.twitter.com/whalewatchmeplz

Further Reading----

1) http://1.usa.gov/nH59yq

Wikipedia also has quite a few more explanations:

2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Ha...

• Category

  Science & Technology

[draven kennedy]

??????

[thosethickstrings]

Some people like me just can't see the reasoning but i think i finaly got it. It is confusing in that the only odds that shift are the ODDS OF U WINNING. The switch method makes u win more because Example: (winner is behind A) u pick A and switch to B because the host opened C you lose. Pick C host reveales B switch to A win. Pick B host reveales C switch to A win. (2/3) WINS. However the odds that the physical doors are winners is either 1/3 or 1/2. Odds of u winning, not of door being a winner

[thebrickworker1]

1/2x

dude its called to re-check look at my math problem so  + bx +c = 0,

so x is 1/3

[PaintKyZR]

If I get to the end of a game show with the right door, but switch at the end.

.

I'm killing a goat, any goat.

[owennewo14]

Now it may still look like 50/50 but look CAREFULLY:

Switching gives the likelihood of getting a car 2 times out of 3, or 66%

Sticking gives the likelihood of getting a car 1 time out of 3, or 33%

This means you are twice as likely to end up with a car if you switch because you are twice as likely to pick a goat door to start with.

[owennewo14]

For those that don't understand or think that it is 50/50 I'll explain it simply.

There are SIX possible outcomes.

1. Pick 1st goat door. Host shows 2nd goat. You switch. Get a car.

2. Pick 2nd goat door. Host shows 1st goat. You switch. Get a car.

3. Pick 1st goat door. Host shows 2nd goat. Stick. Get a goat.

4. Pick 2nd goat door. Host shows 1st goat. Stick. Get a goat.

5. Pick car door. Host shows any goat. Switch. Get a goat.

6. Pick car door. Host shows any goat. Stick. Get a car.

[owennewo14]

For the Monty Hall Problem to work, the host MUST know where both goats are because the host must always show you a goat. This means that the host also knows where the car is.

[fatchicken18]

vsauce did it

[fatchicken18]

Vsauce did it

[Moldymonke]

Wooooooo

[Tyler Harmon]

Yea, do due ja vu please

[pokesora101]

Can you explain de ja vu please??