HOUSING STARTS
The key positive indicator for the 3rd quarter, is the Honolulu housing starts number. Historically, there are 1550 single family home starts each year, which keeps pace with the 1600 new households that are formed. Annual housing starts in Honolulu are now running at 868. This is down 43% of Honolulu's 20 year historical level. This implies a potential housing shortfall as Hawaii's economy stabilizes.
MONTHS SUPPLY
This housing shortfall is evident in Months supply of inventory on the market, for September. Supply is down to around 6 months for both single family homes and condominiums.
HOMES FOR SALE
Homes for sale in the month of September, showed a continued decline.
NEW LISTINGS
A shrinking supply is also evident in both housing categories by the decreased number of new listings.
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
In September, we see median sales price dip about 8% for single family homes, while condominiums are down almost 4%.
CLOSED SALES
The number of closed sales, in the 3rd quarter, have slipped 2% for SFHs and up about 1% for condominiums
PENDING SALES
3rd quarter Pending sales are up 36% for SFHs, while condominiums are up 18%.
DAYS ON MARKET
3rd Quarter Days on Market, is up 9% for SFHs and up and 29% for condominiums.
PERCENT OF ORIGINAL LIST PRICE RECEIVED
Percent of original list price received is relatively unchanged at 95%.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX
Housing in the 3rd quarter has continued to become more affordable relative to Hawaii's median income.
Aug EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
Looking at Hawaii's employment by sector over the last 3 years we see Government, Education and Healthcare employment remaining firm.
Hospitality and Professional Services look to be turning up.
while Trade & Transport, Financial and Construction employment are still lagging.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
In this graph, that goes back to 1975, we can see the last 5 US recessions highlighted in red. The line in the graph represents an index that's tracks Hawaii's economic activity. If we focus on the last 4 years (next slide), we can see Hawaii's economy slide downwards until the spring of last year.
June ECONOMIC HEALTH
From the spring of last year thru the 1st half of 2011, the index is up 1.1%.
Aug ECONOMIC HEALTH (cont'd)
If we look even closer at the past 15 months, we can clearly see the impact of March's Tsunami in Japan on Hawaii's Economy.
Q3 VISITOR ARRIVALS
In this 3 year chart, we see the 3rd quarter Monthly Visitor Arrivals to Hawaii up 19.1%, year over year.
Q3 VISITOR ARRIVALS (JP)
If we look closer at the 3rd quarter of 2011, as a year over year percentage, we can clearly see a drop off in arrivals following March's tsunami. Japanese arrivals alone, thru August, are down 8.2%.
Aug VISITOR DAYS
Statistics for August, show Visitor days are up by 4%, compared to the same period last year.
Aug VISITOR SPENDING
In August, we also saw an increase in visitor spending in Hawaii by 14.1%.
In summary, for the 3rd Quarter, 2011, we see a decrease in prices for single family homes & condominiums, a continued shrinking of supply, an increase in the amount of time to sell property, and a stabilizing of Hawaii's economy.
HOT AREAS
In the third quarter we had 11 neighborhoods, shown here in red, with increased sales and decreased inventory. Areas shown in blue have decreased sales and increased inventory. Areas shown in green were unchanged compared to the same month last year.
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Jakesbook June 2011by RealEstateJake64 views
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