IoD: New vidcast on UK economy

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Uploaded by on Apr 14, 2008

IoD Chief Economist Graeme Leach examines the potential triggers of a recession in the UK and why it can be avoided.

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News & Politics

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  • The impact of oil prices (whether due to structural peak or cyclical factors) is incorporated in my analysis, with reference to the stickyflation constraint on the MPC's ability to reduce interest rates. Peak oil (or not as there is a debate here) is not the primary trigger with regard to recession risk except in so far as it reduces discretionary spending in other areas.

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  • Why is peak oil no issue here? As far as I know, the North Sea has peaked in 1999 and the UK has become a net importer of crude oil meanwhile.

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