It *could* just be coincidence

Interactive version of the Birthday Paradox:

http://betterexplained.com/articles/u...

A poor understanding of probability leads many people to put forward supernatural explanation for events that are far more common than they think.

This video shows how probability theory is sufficient to explain even seemingly remarkable coincidences.

• Category

  Education

[TheFarmersFarmington]

Minor Correction. The Probability of unspecified person Y winning the lottery is only 1 to 1 if every lottery number is chosen

[QualiaSoup]

I did actually specify on screen: "A lottery in which tickets are sold for every possible combination of numbers, one ticket per person"

[TheCookiezPlz]

Actually, you would need to prove it was improbable, as that's what would require something supernatural, which hasn't been proven. In any case, he wasn't even talking about the universe here. Just simple day to day occurrences.

[arzhaan9]

this has changed my mind - thank you for the post

[jelliedsoup]

I don't know what your point is. You imply coincidence due to the lack of anything else.

I think you would need to prove that universe/life always is/was probable for it to hold any merit.

[TheFarmersFarmington]

My bad i must have missed that (writing lab report at the time).

[Frank Later]

Quite some time ago, I've tried to explain this so several superstitious people I know. What I learned is that with these people, their emotional response to a phenomenon of chance is so strong that they simply cannot accept the clinical mathematical truth. With them, wishful thinking trumps reason, and no amount of evidence will sway them.

Only the doubters, the ones who'd like superstition to be true, but who are open to rationality, can be convinced by logical arguments.

[EebstertheGreat]

The probability is one IN one, or 100%. "1 to 1" is a way of specifying odds, which in this case correspond to a probability of 1 in 2, or 50%.

[Somaliko]

I don't care. It still sounds funny.

[suzbone]

I'd say that someone needs to show Karl Pilkington this video, but he'd just misinterpret it all wrong the way he does everything else.