Public Welfare and a Peak in Global Oil Production (1of3)

Risk assessment with the following approach:
***1. Identify Risk
2. Assess Impact
Transportation
Food and Agriculture***
Population
3. Assess Probability
Arguments for a near term peak
Arguments against a near term peak
4. Assign Risk Severity Value
5. Conclusions

Part 2of3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2Y5wrscWMQ

Category:

Education

Tags:

• peak
• oil
• depletion
• hubbert
• petroleum

[speculawyer]

Great presentation . . . Do you have the slides posted anywhere?

[spAdeman1001]

@speculawyer I can send you the files if you PM me.

[spAdeman1001]

I'm sure as you point out they are not linearly but cyclically related. Tertzakian has some good Real GDP vs. Consumption that correlate well is his book "1000 barrels a second". There is also the method of comparing developed to undeveloped nations - human development index vs. energy consumption per capita (2005 data) shows a logarithmic correlation with R^2=0.77.

[speculawyer]

@takomaguy More likely the other way around.

[speculawyer]

@takomaguy More likely the other way around.

[takomaguy]

If global warming is the first shoe to drop, then peak oil is the second.

[easonrevant]

Nice presentation!

[161803]

One nitpick: on the "Oil demand and GDP growth" chart, might we be seeing how GDP growth is important to bolstering oil demand, rather than the converse?

What you're trying to argue there is actually somewhat tricky to prove. The best way might be to point out the very low elasticity in gasoline demand; that is perhaps the clearest signal that the resource is essential and that substitutes are presently lacking.