TPMtv: 2008 General Election Roundup #1

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You have got to be out of your mind if you vote Obama. I'm from Chicago and he is part of the political machine here. You think he was elected to that senate seat he's not serving? It was practically given to him. Chicago has the highest taxes in the USA and has the most corrupt political system. And these idiot Obama supporters want this guy in the White House? It makes no sense. America will get it right: Obama loses on a landslide. I hope the police are ready for the riots to come...

Sept 2 Polls:
Gallup Tracking: Obama +8
Rasmussen Track: Obama +6
USA Today : Obama +7
Hotline/FD : Obama +9
CBS News :  Obama +8

Nice bump after convention.

OBama / Biden 2008

Sept 5 Polls
USA Today : McCain +10

I don't see Obama Bin Biden with those numbers!
Was not just a bump it was a jump after the convention!

kerry didn't have a 20 point lead over Bush. Poll mean nothing until late Aug to late October. Based on all the controversy, if Hillary would have overtaken Obama and clinched the nomination, I don't think she could be McCain. Black voters would stay home because blacks would have seen her campaign and her nomination as racist. Dems can't win a presidential election without large black or black turnout. Latinos would need to help her win.

yes kerry did lead bush by 20 points when he clinched the nomination. and at the time people thought the democrat would win because bush was still very unpopular. and u are saying hillary couldn't beat mccain? um news flash the black vote is prevelant in states that usually go red anyway. obama hada huge weakness with working class voters in the critical swing states. yeah hillary's not gonna win georgia or south carolina but chances are neither will obama.hillarywouldhave won ohio not obama tho

I know that the black vote is prevalant in Southern red states because.I'm not silly! Hillary or any Democrat can't win swing states like OH, MI, Penn, MO, FLA, VA, with out a strong majority of the black vote. Hillary would have trouble because a majority of white don't vote Democrat and need some black votes to make up for that. Voters in the South vote along racial lines. Whites vote 75% for Rep/blacks vote 90% for the Dems.Democrats can't win in the South because of that.Polls mean nothing!!

You think the swing voters are going to vote for obama? the reagan democrats? i have news for you they won't. and african americans would have supported hillary. angry ones would not vote mccain, if anything they would stay home. but hillary has the support of maya angelou and many other influential african americans. Hillary could get it. Obama is not going to get the white working class. not because he is black but because he is too far to the left

Yes Hillary could get swing votes because she is a centrist. I'm not arguing that Obama can win swing votes. I was talking about Dems can't win the SWING states without black support. If the swing votes had a mix of new voters, young voters, and minorities then Obama could win those. People aren't as scared of the "ultra-liberal" label anymore.The Reagan Democrats are fading out because people are more suburban and not as fixated in small industrial towns where the Reagan Dems came.

This election is going to come down to who can win the suburbs. The suburbs is the new battleground, not Reagan Democrats in industrial small/medium towns. People in the suburb is a great place for Obama and McCain. The suburbs are more diverse, more focused on school choice, more for gun control, has many married couples with kids, and are more middle class. This place is neither mostly Democrat or mostly Republican. It is divided