Moore's Law Ends in 2020

http://www.uberpulse.com/us/2008/02/moores_law_ends_in_2010_cadence_cto_predi...

So what's going on with Moore's Law, which states that transistor density on integrated circuits doubles every 18 months? For Gordon Moore, as in... Moore's law... we have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit.

But today at a panel on the "Future of the Electronics Industry" hosted during the DesignCon conference, Cadence CTO Ted Vucurevich's prediction, although in Moore's range, was less optimistic. According to the Cadence exec, "traditional scaling" as we know it will hit a wall in 12 years. Beyond that, "vertical scaling" which is the action of stacking up chips could be the way to go, although those chips will be much more complex to design and build. "From a purely technological point of view we figure that you will not be able to use any known form of removal heat being able to go beyond about 1 nanometre in terms of devices [...] But the interconnects do not scale anywhere close to that same level and that's going to cause us some interesting challenges [...] I don't know if we're going to see practical scaling much beyond the 6 nanometres node [...] So i put kind of the end of traditional silicon based probably around 2020", Vucurevich said.




I also liked Vucurevich comments about the iPhone, not being that technologically advanced as some would think. "The iPhone doesn't represent leading edge technology in almost any dimension when you look at that phone!"
http://www.uberpulse.com/us/2008/02/moores_law_ends_in_2010_cadence_cto_predi...

Category:

Science & Technology

Tags:

• DesignCon
• Cadence
• Moore's
• Law
• cto
• vucurevich
• uberpulse

[artthugable]

I nearly pissed myself laughing... "iphone doesn't represent leading edge technology in almost any dimension"

[DanielAvilaAGT]

1:09-1:11 LOL at his pony tail... XD

[JOTTABYTE]

Yeah Moore's law is coming to an end. I will never use money on a new pc anymore! YEAH this is great. Thumbs up if you agree!

[VeXorian1337]

@artthugable It's funny, because at first I thought you were praising Apple yourself .. hahahahaha .. This is one of the reasons why I hate YouTube commentary nowadays :P

[artthugable]

@VeXorian1337 I think there *was* some confusion, I am used to defending my opinions to fan boys. At first read your reply seemed to praise the iphone in a direct contrast to my comment. Also I am not rich *no* apple consultants are. There is no trickle effect down in corporations, well maybe at google...

[VeXorian1337]

@artthugable What? I think there was some confusion in my statement. No I'm not an Apple fan boy, in fact I never possessed an Apple product. Nor am I stating that Apple's technology is new, in fact I was doing the otherwise. Apple DID indeed buy patents from other companies. It's technology already present, but not utilized properly. You're just repeating my statement. Good for you, make "shitload of money", I don't care. I make shitload of money myself as both software and hardware engineer..

[artthugable]

Respond to this video... Anyways I'm not going to assume you're a apple fan-boy but you should do some research before you reply with opinion only bases responses. By the way I make a shit load of money advising Apple on

system continuity so I guess that makes me an expert...?

[artthugable]

@VeXorian1337 I don't agree, you should do research into Handspring, early HTC and even windows CE. You might not like what you see. You'll shit when I tell you that Apple bought almost all of its early patents from Xerox and just re-purposed them...

[VeXorian1337]

@artthugable But it's true.. all the technologies in the iPhone were present at least 10 years before it's existence (maybe even more). Apple were just the first to see it's potential, as was the case with Xerox as well.

[omnivorous65]

@wizzboy76 Is the end of Moore's law - while inevitable - something so catastrophic? Chipmakers would have a hard time since it removes the need to constantly upgrade computers or buy new ones. I do not believe that is significantly slows down the speed by which technological progress will progress. And if it did we would not mind it at all. Progress is accelerating to a degree that is puzzling now. To have a decade or two with relative stagnation would not be too serious.

[goalieborn]

Probably not true this is just my idea so go on and hate but if it were to end we can develop more powerful transistors.graphine transistors for example is more powerful than silicon