Professor's Computer Simulations Show Worst-Case Swine Flu Scenario

Large-scale computer simulations run by Northwestern researchers show worst-case scenario projections of approximately 1,700 cases of swine flu for the entire United States four weeks from now.

Dirk Brockmann, associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science who leads the research group, finds that the major areas shown to have incidents in the worst-case scenario include California, Texas and Florida. Worst-case scenario means that no measures have been taken to combat the spread of disease. These numbers would, of course, be lessened by preventive measures already under way.

Under this scenario, more than 100 cases are projected for the Chicago area. The affected locations largely correspond to major transportation hubs in the country. The researchers also will be running simulations on the possible time course of the spread of swine flu in Europe.

Full story: http://www.northwestern.edu/newscenter/stories/2009/04/brockmann.html

Category:

Education

Tags:

• Northwestern
• swine
• flu
• illness
• epidemic
• simulation
• data
• research

[maydayfire]

hahaha working with Matlab. You see that Matlab tool bar u know it is really done

[anoniab]

And what kind went around this last winter? How many doctors actually do a culture? Could it be it's already been around here and just hitting Mexico now?

[vimzibaiegh]

True-I went to the grocery store - deli section &took a number. A woman w/ son got taken before me. I'm standing near the counter & she let's out a big cough. Everyone around her could have gotten exposed. Suppose the meat server had it? Fortunately, I don't think I'm the type that is overly susceptible to the flu; having never had it (or never realized it) Never had a flu shot either. I'm beginning to think that avoiding flu shots was a lucky thing. Probably be fit as a fiddle then boom!

[MAXBLAYLOCK]

All it would take to do that is one sneeze in an airport. But you may be right.

[vimzibaiegh]

There are already over 4,000. Tells me that it didn't originate in just one spot.