Allan Lichtman On 13 Keys To The WhiteHouse

The video clip runs 5:14 (min:sec), and it first aired on MSNBC's Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell in late August 2011. Allan Lichtman, a political scientist at American University, has a mathematical model that predicts the outcome of presidential elections, and his model has predicted the election winner 7 times in a row, dating back to 1984. Lichtman's model has 13 variables, all equally weighted—things like the state of the economy, whether or not there will be a strong 3rd party candidate, whether or not the president has had a major scandal, and 10 others. If 6 or more favor the challenger to the sitting president, then the president will lose reelection. So, even if a president is favored in 7 of 13 categories, the sitting president is predicted to lose the election. Lichtman comments on President Obama's chances for reelection in the video.

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