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(transcript below)
The Internet is full of people selling betting systems with promises of beating the casino at games of luck. Those who sell these systems are the present day equivalent of the 19th century snake oil salesmen. Under no circumstances should you waste one penny on any gambling system. Every time one has been put to a computer simulation it failed and showed the same ratio of losses to money bet as flat betting. If you ask a system salesman about this you likely will get a reply such as, "In real life nobody plays millions of trials in the casino." You're likely to also hear that his/her system works in real life, but not when used against a computer simulation. It is interesting that professionals use computers to model real life problems in just about every field of study, yet when it comes to betting systems computer analysis becomes "worthless and unreliable", as the salesman of one system put it. In any event, such an excuse misses the point; the computer runs billions of trials simply to prove that a system is unsound. If it won't work on a computer, it won't work in the casino.
Gambling systems have been around for as long as gambling has. No system has ever been proven to work. From an inside source, I know that system salesmen go from selling one kind of system to another. It is a dirty business by which they steal ideas from each other, and are always attempting to rehash old systems as something new.
System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000. In addition, I ran simulations with a 2% advantage and for a starting bankroll of $1,000. Following are the results of all four tests.
$100 bankroll, 1% advantage Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%) Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%) Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%) Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%) Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$100 bankroll, 2% advantage Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%) Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%) Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%) Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%) Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 bankroll, 1% advantage Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%) Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%) Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%) Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%) Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 bankroll, 2% advantage Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%) Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%) Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%) Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%) Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
These simulations prove that with just a small advantage of as little as 1% and a bankroll of as little as $100 you can grind your way to a million dollars through the gambling equivalent of compound interest. Yet you never hear of this actually happening. Could it be that these gambling systems don't work after all?!
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