SpotEuro Forex Daily Outlook August 26, 2010

U.S. DATA CONTINUES TO DISAPPOINT. Another terrible day in terms of U.S. economic data releases, showing a further slowdown in the U.S. as durable goods orders grew only .3% vs. 2.9% expected; even worse, the core figure came in at a negative 3.8%! Our belief is that the majors will gain ground against the dollar in the short term, over the next few days. The markets were once again talking about the difference in spread between the German and Greek bonds. Yesterday we mentioned that we won't see dollar strength until we start to see more and more depressing news out of the Euro-zone, which we think will start to build between now and the 1st or 2nd week of September. We may be wrong, but all signs are pointing to a further move in favor of the dollar, its just a matter of time as well as a trigger. The main reason we're not seeing strength in the dollar right now is because the data has surprised to the downside MUCH more than traders had anticipated and a lot of people are now talking about the possibility of more quantitative easing.

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