Hurricane Rick roars onward - 180 mph/906mb - Weakening Likely Ahead

Roaring to historic proportions on Saturday with 180 mph sustained winds, Hurricane Rick is finally showing signs of a less favorable environment ahead and weakening to end the weekend. The latest images show a monster hurricane with tropical storm force winds extending outward nearly 120 miles and hurricane force winds tightly packed roughly 40-50 miles outward from Rick's center. Rick appears to have maxed out in intensity late Saturday with an estimated central pressure down to 906 mb and just shy of Hurricane Linda's sustained wind speed of 185 in 1997, thus keeping Linda the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane to date. The latest on Hurricane Rick Sustained Winds: 180 mph Moving: WNW 14 mph Estimated Central Pressure: 906 mb Rick's explosive development into strong category five status was fueled by slightly above normal sea surface temperatures (+1 to + 2 C above average) in a region where SSTs were close to 86F degrees. Little to no wind shear at the time allowed intensification well beyond most consensus model output, given no data was secured by flight-level operations the computer models had been playing 'catch up' for most of Saturday. A weak to moderate El Nino continues in the equatorial Pacific as seen in the slideshow/video, a relatively minor factor when compared to the perfect conditions Rick encountered on Saturday (lack of wind shear and 30C+ SSTs) but nonetheless a notable change from average for this time of year. Rick shows near perfect outflow in all quadrants on Saturday Rick has likely reached peak intensity as overnight satellite imagery shows the storm appearing more ragged in the western quadrant plus an eyewall replacement cycle underway will likely drop sustained wind speeds from Saturday's 180 mph winds. The changes in Hurricane Rick's appearance will likely become more noticeable heading into Monday as wind shear begins increasing out of the west and coupled with gradually cooling sea surface temperatures should drop Rick into category three status as the storm begins turning to the north on Monday. Visible Satellite 1km View - 10-17-2009 A weather system passing by to the north will continue increasing wind shear in the deep layer wind field that will not only begin to lift/accelerate Hurricane Rick to the north/northeast but begin what should be a rapid weakening phase for the storm prior to potential landfall in Southern Baja California/Western Mexico on Wednesday. The current projected path has Rick crossing near Cabo San Lucas later on Wednesday with sustained winds in the 85-100 mph range, still a significant hurricane but not nearly as intense as the storm's historic peak. Short-term impacts on the region will include 12-16 foot breakers heading to the Western Mexico coastline from Puerto Vallarta to Manzanillo with increasing wave heights moving toward Baja California Monday and Tuesday. What's left of Hurricane Rick, likely a tropical depression or remnant low will bring the potential for flooding across Texas and the southern states for the second half of the week. For More Information: National Hurricane Center, Servicio Meteorologico Nacional Powered by hurricane-tracking software from Stormpulse.com

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[Crevenalonzo]

The storms eye wall is just beautiful. Good thing it weakened after all that. Nothing much left of it now, just stream the moisture into Texas and we'll be good.