North Korea Nuclear Threats (2) 5-25-2009 Honolulu News

5-25-2009 Seoul, Korea: Roh's Death and a Nuke Test

As Seoul grapples with ex-President Roh's suicide, North Korea defies international law with a nuclear blast.

By announcing on May 25 that it has carried out a second test of nuclear weapons, North Korea is sending a message to the world that it is determined to be recognized as a nuclear power—even if the consequence is deeper international isolation. North Korea watchers in Seoul believe the test is a confirmation of Pyongyang's policy to consolidate the repressive regime of its military-backed leader Kim Jong Il in the face of his deteriorating health. "Everything else comes second," says Dong Yong Sueng, head of the economic security team at Samsung Economic Research Institute, a think tank for South Korea's top conglomerate, Samsung. To heighten tensions further, North Korea also fired three short-range missiles from its east coasts on May 25.

South Koreans are accustomed to threats from the communist North, so jitters about military provocations are usually short-lived. On Monday morning the news of a nuclear test hit financial markets, with the main Kospi stock index on the Seoul bourse falling as much as 6.3%. By afternoon, though, investors had calmed down, and the market recouped most of its losses, ending just 0.2% lower. South Korea's currency, the won, closed 0.1% lower after losing as much as 1.8% of its value earlier in the day. Yet the probability of international sanctions against Pyongyang and its vitriolic reactions, with more threats of violence, could prevent South Korean President Lee Myung Bak from focusing on efforts to recover from the recession.

Already the country has been rocked from the suicide of former President Roh Moo Hyun on Saturday amid a corruption probe centering on his wife and close associates but eventually targeting Roh. The former President, who unexpectedly won the 2002 election on a ticket to end abuses and corruption by the Establishment, became unpopular by the time his five-year term ended amid a worsening economy, but the onetime human rights lawyer was credited before leaving office with running the cleanest administration. Since his term ended last year, though, Roh's family and political allies have been summoned by state prosecutors in a move billed by his supporters as a sign of a political vendetta by the Lee administration.

Now, Lee has to manage that crisis at the same time as the challenge from the North. The announcement of the nuclear test and the firing of the missiles is a challenge for President Barack Obama, too, says Dong.

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