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Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part I

Dr. Scott Armstrong, a leading expert on forecasting with the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania, has challenged Al Gore to a bet. He bets that the "naive model" of no change will outper...
Dr. Scott Armstrong, a leading expert on forecasting with the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania, has challenged Al Gore to a bet. He bets that the "naive model" of no change will outperform the climate model forecasts over the next ten years. Armstrong argues that the model-based climate predictions of the IPCC are "forecasts by scientists rather than scientific forecasts."
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rsmith02 (1 year ago) Show Hide
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Let me take a wild guess that he isn't willing to take part in the "long bets" to see whether his theories are right.

Climate models aren't intended to be forecasts and are more accurate over longer time periods as that is climate, not short-term chaotic trends (weather).
minilemur (1 year ago) Show Hide
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rsmith02 - yes your post is indeed a wild guess that does not contribut anything scientifically pertinent to the debate. Did you not listen to any of this video before posting your opinion?

It's rubbish to say that climate models aren't intended to be forecasts - what else is the alarmism based on? Observed trends show no cause for alarm in the mild global re-warming we have seen.
paulg22 (6 months ago) Show Hide
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If climate models aren't intended to be forecasts, then why does everybody talk about global warming predictions based on the models. The entire global warming argument is based on model results.

There is simply no basis for your claim that climate models are more accurate over long time periods, since they haven't even been in existence over long time periods and it has been show quite convincingly that they fail to even correctly "predict" the past climate.
Wybigtrails (1 year ago) Show Hide
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This needs to be required reading for the national news media and Al goreeeeee and his con men friends.

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