Expert warns of AFL demise

http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/australia/expert-warns-of-...

Australian rules football may face a future where it exists only at subsidised folklore festivals, according to a new book that applies economic analysis to some of soccer's greatest truths and biggest myths.
Football does seem to be unstoppable in virtually all known societies, Simon Kuper, co-author of Soccernomics (Nation Books) told The World Game.

I am not a missionary for soccer. I try to look at it neutrally but I just do think that it seems to be the story everywhere that soccer is immensely powerful.

Kuper, a highly credentialed author and a columnist for the Financial Times, and co-author Stefan Szymanski, Professor of Economics and MBA Dean at Londons Cass Business School, predict Aussie rules has a shaky future as the round-ball game continues its rapid growth in Australia.

The books claim will add more fuel to an already toxic culture war between the Australian Football League and Football Federation Australia over the latter's bid to host either the 2018 or 2022 FIFA World Cup.

Last week, AFL boss Andrew Demetriou claimed incorrectly an entire AFL season would be shut down if Australia hosted the FIFA World Cup.

The comments sparked intense debate from the public and in the especially Melbourne media about the present and future role of both sports in Australia.

But the predictions found in Soccernomics will not be welcomed by AFL powerbrokers.

Of course, Aussie rules wont wither and die tomorrow morning, Kuper said. Nor will NFL [in the United States] or sumo in Japan but I do think there are long term trends of the rise of soccer and decline of other sports.

What you have seen since the 1980s is parents in Australia and the US being reluctant to send their children to quite rough activities. You can decry that and say that children should be [playing rough sports] and it is soft and sissy that they are not but the fact is that parents have a greater reluctance to enroll their children in those sports. That is a long-term disadvantage for Aussie rules.

The other thing is that soccer has the prestige of being global so it is aspirational. If you compete in soccer you will compete in something global that the whole world cares about. The heroes [of soccer] are the heroes of the world and the World Cup is a story of the world.

But Aussie rules can exist side by side with soccer. We said in the book that it may be a subsidised folklore festival so it is not my bet but I do think it is a distinct possibility.
16 December 2009 | 08:59 - SBS: Matthew Hall (less info)