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- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Michigan.
With all the attention last week focused on the vice presidential debate, it was easy to overlook what may have been the biggest story of the week: John McCains withdrawal from the key state of Michigan. The fact that the news broke literaly on the day of the Biden-Palin debate was obviously not a coincidence, but an effort to bury, or at least put some dirt, on top of the story. Even so, it got atention, deservedly so. In the long run, it may count for more than the debate that was supposed to overshadow it.
It is, of course, true that Michigan has gone Democratic in the last four elections. But its been close, especially in the last two. Whats more, Michigan was not an Obama stronghold. Hillary won it handlily in the contest that wasnt; McCain himself won it in 2000, even as Bush was steaming toward the nomination.
Michigan is full of the sort of lunch bucket white Democrats who started off this summer with more questions than affection for Barack Obama. It is the home, historically and ideologically, of the so-called Reagan Democrats. It represents precisely the sort of sate that a victorious McCain would have liked to win, or at least force Obama to spend money to beat him there. Now, Michigan voters are likely to see about as much campaign activity as we do here in California, which is a sign of Obamas growing strength and McCains weakening position.
Country
United States
Occupation
By Susan Estrich Fox News
Interests
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Conceding Michigan may well make sense for McCain given the most recent polls, showing him falling further and further behind, and the reality that presidential politics, particularly when things are looking down, is a zero sum game in which a shrinking pie must be divided with ever greater precision. There are places where McCain is closer; states where he has a better chance of winning than Michigan. And a contest in Michigan means spending less in Ohio and Florida, and the remaining battleground states.
But make no mistake. Leaving a battleground state is a sign of weakness. Weakness in presidential politics begets more weakness. It hurts fundraising. It undermines confidence in the campaign. It ups the pressure on the candidate to take risks which are called that because they usually carry at least as big a downside potential as an upside risk.
Of course, the obvious reason that Michigan turned on McCain is that the economy devloved into a crisis, and its hard to argue that the party thats been in charge for the last eight years and would claim credit for peace and prosperity is not to blame when it has produced neither. It is particularly hard when what has been the mantra of the Republican party for the past two plus decades smaller government, less regulation, more freedom for free markets is so closely tied to everything thats gone wrong. Who let what Palin called those predator lenders out of their cages, free from any restraints? And, more to the point, how do you argue that the answer on which Republicans have built their past successes, is the solution when it so clearly seems to be part of the problem instead?
