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KillerofChaos7 uploaded a new video
(3 months ago)
The link below contains a very detailed explanation of my winter forecas...
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The link below contains a very detailed explanation of my winter forecast.
My Weather Blog: http://gwxmanblog...
First of all, I want to thank you for taking the time to view this video. I have put a substantial amount of work and time into this (2 weeks straight to be exact), researching, analyzing the current pattern, picking out analogs (which was the hardest part for me), typing, creating maps, and grabbing images of data that supports my forecast. With that said, regarding oceanic and atmospheric conditions, here's what I expect the setup to be:
Moderate West Based -NAO blocking (could get stronger)
Moderate -AO (same deal)
Weak Nina (Possibly up to Moderate)
-PDO
Weak +AMO
Weak to Moderate -QBO
Low Solar Activity (despite recent uptick)
I also took into account the current Fall pattern and how it may correlate to the winter. We have had several impressive CAD events down here across the Carolinas and N GA, frequent troughing east/ridging west, a highly amplified pattern (long range indicating several cutoff/closed lows around the northern hemisphere), potential mid-November West based -NAO blocking, and several storm systems dumping major rain and snow across the Eastern two thirds of the US (including the October Snowstorm in the Northeast). All of this is pointing to what appears to be a very active winter in store as it has been proven that there is indeed a correlation of some sort between the two seasons. It's not always guaranteed but certainly aids in figuring out long range when doing seasonal outlooks.
The analogs that I used where all based on the current Fall pattern and what could set up for the following winter. Keep in mind that the other years except the first one I used had something that's not present or will be in the near future, hence why I also added how much of my thoughts I put toward each set. Here they are:
1962-1963- Weak Nina, -QBO, -NAO, -PDO, low solar activity (more)
1967-1968- Weak Nina, -QBO, -NAO, -PDO, near solar maxima (more)
1995-1996- Weak Nina, -QBO, -NAO, +PDO, low solar activity (less)
2008-2009- Weak Nina, +QBO, +NAO, -PDO, low solar activity (less)
2010-2011- Weak-Moderate Nina, +QBO, -NAO, -PDO, low solar activity (more)
1962-1963 seems to be the only perfect analog to use out of this list since it clearly defines the conditions now. I put less beside 1995-1996 due to it not being a second year nina and having a +PDO and beside 2008-2009 with its +NAO. The rest were weighed more on account of the more major players (hence 1967-1968 and 2010-2011 besides 1962-1963). Very challenging to do since there were so many to choose from but I saw these as being more common and went with those years instead.
Storm Track Explanation:
I know it may look a tad confusing with all the lines drawn the way they are, but I will go over each starting with the primaries:
The first one I put down just off the West Coast. Given the influence felt by the ridge and trough setup, it will travel just southeast of the PNW, throwing plenty of precipitation back their way and then head southeast from there. Now there are three alternate paths that I think it could take at this point. It can either jog to the southeast a bit and cut through the Ohio Valley and Southern MA before going OTS, take the same path but turn more northeastward once it's close to WV, or it can dive close to the Gulf Coast and then travel eastward through the Southeast and go OTS.
The next primary track is the Alberta Clipper, which we all should be familiar with. This go around, however, I believe it can take a further south track due to influence from the -NAO troughing so areas that normally miss out can get in on the action. There may also be moments where these clippers can get a bit of an attitude and actually pull additional amounts of energy from the south, though I would expect those amounts to be small at best.
The third primary is located down in the GoM where systems can develop and then travel along the coast, becoming the typical Miller A/Nor-easter kind of system. We all should be familiar with this as well.
Moving on to the secondaries, you will notice I placed two on the map. One of them is located in northern CA, which I expect tracks like that to take a direct northeastward direction spreading additional precipitation for the PNW and Northern Plains. I predict this will happen a few times throughout the season. The second one is down in eastern TX. Here, a system would develop close to the Gulf and manage to pull plenty of moisture that may be nearby and then take either a direct east route and OTS, possibly jogging slightly northeast as well, head directly through the Carolinas or it may become an Apps Runner and potentially cause a Miller B setup with a coastal low developing nearby. This particular track could happen a few times as well.
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