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The Brookings Institution
Research at Fall 2012 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity
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1
New Unemployment Model Can Outperform Forecasters
by BrookingsInstitution 282 views
A new economic model can improve unemployment rate forecasts by up to 30 percent, according to research. Having an accurate forecast of the unemployment rate is important for policymakers, economists, and the business community because the jobless rate not only provides a strong signal about the state of the business cycle in real time, but also because increases in the unemployment rate have preceded the past three recessions, note authors Regis Barnichon of the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and Christopher J. Nekarda of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. In another paper, Author Robert A. Moffitt of Johns Hopkins University examines the trends in the employment to population ratio and finds that the decline began in the year 2000, was made worse by the recent recession, and is unlikely to bounce back any time soon. The decline is disproportionately concentrated among the less educated and younger groups -- particularly among unmarried women, he finds.
In this video, BPEA co-editor Justin Wolfers discusses the research mentioned above, presented at the Fall 2012 Conference of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Learn more about BPEA at: http://goo.gl/yLo81 -
2
Poverty Has Fallen Much More than Previously Thought
by BrookingsInstitution 136 views
Poverty has fallen by 12.5 percentage points over the past 40 years, in spite of the fact that official government statics show the opposite with a rise in the number of poor, according to new research by Bruce Meyer of the University of Chicago and James Sullivan of the University of Notre Dame. In this video, BPEA co-editor Justin Wolfers describes the research presented at the Fall 2012 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. Learn more about BPEA at: http://goo.gl/yLo81
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3
Central Banks' Recent Experiments with Capital Controls Not Very Effective
by BrookingsInstitution 111 views
The recent use of short-term capital controls has not helped governments stop exchange rate appreciations, prevent asset price booms and busts, nor avoid general economic volatility post-Great Recession, according to new research by Michael Klein of Tufts University. In this video, BPEA co-editor Justin Wolfers discusses the research findings presented at the Fall 2012 Conference of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Learn more about BPEA at: http://goo.gl/yLo81
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4
Perceptions Matter: Homebuyers Too Optimistic Long-Term, Helped Inflate Bubble
by BrookingsInstitution 172 views
Expectations of homebuyers about the housing market's price appreciation over the long-term were overinflated and likely were a factor in the housing bubble, according to new research by Karl Case, Robert Shiller and Anne Thompson. In this video, BPEA co-editor Justin Wolfers discusses the research findings presented at the Fall 2012 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. Learn more about BPEA at: http://goo.gl/yLo81
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5
U.S. Public Discourse Not Currently as Politically Polarized as Most Think
by BrookingsInstitution 137 views
Partisanship of public political discourse, as measured by use of polarizing or partisan words, is actually lower today than it was during Reconstruction and the late 19th century, according to a new analysis of the Congressional Record and Google Books since 1873 by Stanford's Jacob Jensen, Suresh Naidu and Laurence Wilse-Samson of Columbia University and Ethan Kaplan of the University of Maryland. In this video, BPEA co-editor Justin Wolfers discusses the research findings presented at the Fall 2012 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. Learn more about BPEA at: http://goo.gl/yLo81
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6
U.S. Public Discourse Not Currently as Politically Polarized as Most Think
by BrookingsInstitution 137 views
Partisanship of public political discourse, as measured by use of polarizing or partisan words, is actually lower today than it was during Reconstruction and the late 19th century, according to a new analysis of the Congressional Record and Google Books since 1873 by Stanford's Jacob Jensen, Suresh Naidu and Laurence Wilse-Samson of Columbia University and Ethan Kaplan of the University of Maryland. In this video, BPEA co-editor Justin Wolfers discusses the research findings presented at the Fall 2012 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity. Learn more about BPEA at: http://goo.gl/yLo81
