TPMtv: Clinton's New Math

[deepfriedcontent]

It's pronounced like "ore-eh-gun."

[mykalroze]

Clinton will not be getting my vote, under almost all circumstances. I hope she doesn't get the nomination, and mathematically, it's pretty much impossible for her to catch up. The media outlets are not telling you this because it helps their ratings/revenue as they pretend that this race is closer than it is. Once Clinton started all her dirty tricks, she lost any chance of getting my vote.

[fbulaonjr]

Devin1498:

Stop being Ignorant. I came on here to write a very positive message about Sen Obama and nothing negative about Hillary

This is the kind of bigotry and divisive Tactics that this country does NOT need. Atleast try to write something constructive and educated, so Hillary and her supporters can be perceived in a better Light

Obama Supporters would Never write something like that. Perhaps, that is the difference between the two Campaigns and their supporters

OBAMA = Positive CHANGE!

[fbulaonjr]

Sen. Obama,

"May the wind always be at your back and

the sun always upon your face, and the

winds of destiny carry you to the stars."

Godspeed Senator....

All the best from NYC!!!

[Devin1498]

Sen. Obama,

May the wind blow you into blunt and sharp objects. May the sun scorch your eyes and skin, and winds of destiny send you into the Earth's core.

Halalalalalla Allah!

NYC voted for Hillary! & Everyone loves laughing at Obama's stupidity on SNL!

[fbulaonjr]

Pls stop being Ignorant. I came on here to write a very positive message about Sen Obama and nothing negative about Hillary.

This is the kind of bigotry and divisive Tactics that this country does NOT need. Atleast try to write something constructive and educated, so Hillary and her supporters can be perceived in a better Light

Obama Supporters would Never write something like that. Perhaps, that is the difference between the two Campaigns and their supporters

OBAMA = Positive CHANGE!

[djancak]

obama = no change.

ron paul please kthx

[rede77]

Hillary will listen to lobbyists such as drug companies and health companies FIRST before the people. Anyway, they've mostly funded her campaign.

Also,she couldn't initiate universal healthcare back in the 90's how am I suppose to believe she can do it now? She failed before, she might fail again?

[mushroomhead777]

"throughout that (Pennsylvania)debate, Clinton deliberately focused on the content of Obama's comments without making sweeping statements about his character.The Obama campaign has chosen from its inception not to treat Clinton with the same respect. In fact, the Obama campaign has made an unprecedented assault on her character,not her positions,but her character saying one thing about raising the tone of political discourse but acting quite differently in its treatment of Clinton."

-Geoff Garin

[mushroomhead777]

"I am supporting Hillary Clinton because I know that she will make the most positive difference in people's lives and she will help our country become what it can be. Whether you are her supporter, leaning towards her, undecided, or supporting someone else, I believe Hillary Clinton will represent you -- she will be a president for all Americans. It is no small thing that along the way we will make history together."

-Maya Angelou

[jonathanwindham]

The clinton campaign was the first to criticize the other in early 2007 when Geffen switched support, the Clinton campaign was the first to air an attack ad in South carolina and there was also the first of the two to distribute false information about the other campaign, while Obama criticizes Hillary on the issues and her campaigning tactics Hillary keeps bringing up things like reverend wright and airing fear mongering ads.

[nebaioth]

Only STUPID PEOPLE are still voting for Hillary Clinton! Hillary Supporters are:

People who like to be LIED to!

People who like to be HOODWINKED!

People who are only voting for her because she is a woman (albeit a despicable Liar)!

People who like PHONIES!

People who still believe she can win despite hard facts and numbers.

Hillary wants her SUCKERS to believe this, to donate and pay off her campaign debt!

HILLARY SUPPORTERS = SUCKERS!

[fckuvrymch]

gees by the sound of the NEWSCASTERS i thought i was watching sports!

[timmyzim]

This video is obviously biased. Why would you count Puerto Rico?

[2025DPlaza]

It's an embarassing time to be a Democrat when we've got an America-hater like Osama running for the Presidency. Wow.

Obama 08' Yeah! We'll nominate a carbon copy of McGovern, Kerry and Dukkakis, and then we'll "hope" for a different result. What a bunch of MORONS.

THE ONLY CHOICE = Hillary Rodham Clinton

~SOLUTIONS FOR AMERICA~

[jonathanwindham]

I think that is about as fair as comparing hillary to walter mondale

[ZReaction]

Bring back Josh! This guy is a zombie!

[RepresentingYou124]

cunt cunt cunt cunt

go obama fuck hilarbitch

[DisposableAccount174]

It's gonna be fun to watch the chaos and riots in Denver when Hillary tries to steal the nomination.

I wouldn't be in a party where the voters are pissed on by political hacks called superdelegates.

[dayglowgreendoor]

Mein Hitlary will do a Perot job on Obama. She's insane and she's gonna be killing a bunch of people when she becomes the new ameriCan fuhrer. Mein Hitlary will make you all bow to more years of the 28 year long occupation of the executive branch by the Bush/Clinton criminal junt.

[KIFulgore]

Awesome presentation. I'm an Obama supporter in Indiana... go Obama!!

[Devin1498]

TMPtv: Veracifier's new Obama-activist Video.

[2025DPlaza]

Obama polls SO LOW with the Democratic base that it is literally IMPOSSIBLE for him to win a General Election.

[2025DPlaza]

*That Democrats lost with Kerry.

[Devin1498]

Barack Obama is more like John Kerry than Hillary Clinton He's lived a life of privilege and is indeed elitist and out of touch with regular people. He talks down to all people, and is in fact so arrogant he doesn't like to be questioned. For that matter Barack Obama doesn't even have original ideas Much of his rhetoric is taken from other prominent black leaders who are systematically putting black people into power so that they can implement affirmative action and other ethno-centric policies.

[FeelFreeToArgue]

Ah Devin, so lovely to have you on these threads spreading your wisdom, or spreading something at least. A black kid being raised by a single mom qualifies as a life of privalege now? Why shouldn't he be leery of answering questions, seeing as how his spontaneous, unscripted answers are aggressively quote-mined, as with the "bitter" comment. Simple example, replace "cling" in the bitter comment w/ voters "emphasize" these issues, as he would've in a prepared speech, and the issue goes away.

[blinson1971]

HUH?

[FeelFreeToArgue]

Sorry Blinson, I should've seperated those statements better. The "life of privalege" comment and the "answering questions" comment are different. What I meant is, if Obama said those voters "emphasize" guns, religion, etc. instead of saying "cling," I think the whole bitter discussion either goes away or is greatly minimized. Cling is a word that connotes weakness, and was an unfortunate, but I doubt intentional, choice. That's all I'm trying to say.

[blinson1971]

ya, that's prolly true. But I think that people are getting sick and tired of that kind of nit picking in politics. So I actually think it makes Clinton look bad when she picks on Obama when it has nothing to do with the real issues.

[2025DPlaza]

BTW, people say he can win Virginia, yet I saw polls suggesting that both Democrats lose Virginia to John McCain...and not by a small margin. Virginia will stay RED along with Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Alabama, Mississippi, N. Carolina. On the other hand, with Hillary, we can get a whole bunch of states that Democrats with Kerry and then some.

These include (for sure): Ohio, FL (very important), West Virginia, Arkansas.

Maybe: Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, and Nevada.

[Devin1498]

With Hillary Democrats could potentially win Texas-which would give her a victory to truly demoralize the Republicans. Many of Hilllary's supporters, like myself, just don't want to see Barack in office after the nasty campaign he's run; and actively work to destroy his candidacy come the fall.

[2025DPlaza]

I love how the media potrays Obama as a winner of the young vote when Hillary wins the young white vote (18-29 years-olds) in almost every battleground state. LOL. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and some non-battleground states too. Massachusetts, California, Texas, Arkansas, I mean let's get real.

Obama is the Kerry/Dukkakis/McGovern of 08'

THIS nation will fall if he gets the nomination because that means that we all get John McCain.....LORD HELP the United States.

[ubrayj02]

This poor guy is more monotone than Joshua! Jeebus, do you guys ever: (a) sleep; or, (b) take a public speaking class?

Please choose one or the other. This was an interesting analysis - but I kept dozing off and dreaming I was listening to Ben Stien read the stock ticker.

[schwirzl]

finally real news with numbers in this country

[tinbecile]

get some sleep, man

[theastrusmega]

good job Veracifer...its time we brought some logic to the blind Hillary supporters.

Good Job

[Devin1498]

Veracifier's "logic" is an Obama talking point. There's no real "math" to speak of here. The nominating process is inherently political-it doesn't go directly on votes. For that matter it shouldn't.  With the help of the Super Delegates Hillary will over throw the phony Obama regime. But maybe Obama can start his own party. He could call it "The Homicidal Black People, Soulless-Rich-White Social-Liberals, Hammas and other Terrorists" party.

[souljaEXVOTO]

The day I find out the Clintons are gone,

I'm throwing a big. ass. party. (peeps on notice)

And when Obama schools the whole Yard .... daaayamn,

I might not survive the massive crunk fest in the USA

Hoooooo mutherfuckrs Yes We Can party like it's 2009

[Devin1498]

This video should be titled "Veraficier's Open Political Leanings"

[wavaso]

No more Clinton-Bush Dynasty.

[R0SEBUD789]

In 1980, the Democratic Convention was held in New York City, with sitting-President Jimmy Carter challenged for the nomination by Ted Kennedy. Despite Carter having 2,129 delegates to Kennedy's 1,150 (and Carter's 37 states to Kennedy's 12), Kennedy contested the nomination through the convention and actually fought to switch delegates from Carter to himself. Obama-supporter Ted Kennedy fought for the nomination through the convention, despite trailing Carter by roughly ONE THOUSAND delegates.

[dookdawg214]

I wish I knew you were making this because I just posted a Hillary Math video that's less comprehensive. To compensate (I made it in a hurry), I provided a commentary analysis in my description field. These types of videos are important because everyday people don't understand the math and they're getting all hyped by the media. People don't realize how miserable Hillary's chance are and how badly her staying in is destroying the Democrats chances in November. Hillary, you gotta go!

[theastrusmega]

Good Job Veracifer......that was fair.

...and Im a huge critic and subcriber of this channel.

This video was fair. anyone who disagrees needs to learn how to do simple addition.

[Devin1498]

Its called Clinton's credentials, and Veracifier's bias. Pay no attention to this video. Its just Veracifier doing its Obama activism. If you want realy information about the contest look elsewhere. This channel is just good as entertainment.

[stealth63]

Now the media is jumping on this bandwagon and saying that Obama may be unable to win the general election. If that's so, why do nearly all the republicans say they would rather face Clinton? Why is Clinton so far behind in all metrics (except her negative ratings)? Just because she's clueless, I see no reason to question Obama's electibility

[yeaowl]

thanks for the info, gj greg

[Frnlam]

The key word is CLEAR.And Hillary wants to pull

the superdelegate into the same mud hole she

lives in.

[sydfynch]

no offense, dude, but you should check into a little make up if you're gonna be on video.

[Sinistertino]

In an interesting note ... Greg looks ALOT like Adam Corolla, only smarter

[YawnGod]

This guy looks tired.

Still, you win.

[jthomp3120]

is greg you math guy or something. thanks for breaking it down like the big media couldn't!

[toolerslp]

Great Job Greg,

Very Interesting.

[FeelFreeToArgue]

There's a lot of under-reporting of the popular vote in caucus states - after all, the caucus system is all about getting to pledge delegates, it's not a popular vote tallying system. All this talk of metrics is bullshit anyway - it's like deciding in the middle of the super bowl that the game is going to be decided on yards gained running instead of by who's ahead on points at the end. Pledged delegates may be a retarded system but it is the system - deal with it.

[ralcus]

very interesting, thanks alot

[GlobalSufi]

If you look up "Clinton" in any English Dictionary, the definition is: LIAR.

[hypnofan35]

Hillary surely knew about 911 before it happened. Is anyone OK with that? Apparently most folks believe she is some kind of dedicated public servant.  No ho ho ho ho ho. Anyone who lies that much should be behind bars on general principles.

[mysonabsalom]

This guy sucks! I want Marshall! Marshall!

[oldbaldy129]

Hillary is best friends with the Devil.

[lamouchemorte]

No I don't think her and Mr. Cheney are that close. I would say more like she is his competition.

[oldbaldy129]

Yes, you are right.

[vertigate]

As I said, the Clinton camp is on a mushroom trip. Absolutely hallucinating.

[vertigate]

The calculation is much simpler than that: ** HRC needs to win 70% ** of the remaining states to catch up in pledged dels (((408-160)/2)+160)/408=70%. (160 lead, 408 remaining)

And as for the popular vote if you include caucus states you have to apply a minmimum factor of 5 to these states to get the actual number of individual votes.

** Including caucus states Obama's popular vote lead is over 1.1 mill. **

This number gets constantly underreported by the media.

tinyurl . com / 6yhm7b

[vertigate]

E.g. Iowa reported 940 votes for Obama and 737 for Clinton. That's not cause there were only 1,600 voters voting for them, but cause these are caucus delegate votes, representing anywhere from 5 to 100 individual votes each. But the media use these false numbers to calculate a 600,000 popular vote lead for Obama as in the realclearpolitics tally. If you adjust for caucus delegates the real tally Obama's popular lead is AT LEAST 1.1 mill.

tinyurl . com / 6yhm7b

HRC canNOT win the popular vote.

[vertigate]

And what's with all these hypotheticals excluding caucus states entirely and including FL. How is that relevant? I mean why would we have to bend over backwards to accomodate the delusions of the Clinton camp to that degree? Not that it changes the end result, but still, she gets way too much credit on that.

[culverapex]

I've heard that the Dems want the base to have confidence in their primary election process, any cries by Clinton supporters that she was shut out might hurt the party's unity during the actual presidential race. Sure it feels like a farce, but allowing Clinton to use every angle makes it impossible for her and her base to cry foul when she's finally eliminated. We voters already have very little faith in the system, and so I think the Dems are doing the right thing in this case.

[osiris33]

what the hell does that mean IN and NC are a wash?

[Bretttido]

It means that Hillary is able to win by a large enough margin in IN to cancel out Obama's margin in NC... ie, their popular vote difference remains the same. That is an extremely unlikely scenario barring unexpected events in the next 2 weeks.

[fermium77]

Terry's last comment says it all: We'll have to look at the numbers and figure out how we have to manipulate them to make it look like we won. Funny.

[quicksite]

Hey TPM -- is this the first time someone other than Josh Marshall has given the daily video presentation?

REGARDLESS: great job Greg Sargent!

THIS IS the next step in the fantastic pioneering work TPM is doing to create an alternative News Org that uses "TV" as a means to communicate -- that can grow into a mainstream competitor to the Conglomerate Media choices Americans have today.

GREAT GREAT work. This is another major milestone & not anything to be minimized. Keep adding to news pool!

[Veracifier]

Thanks Quicksite! We have used a couple of other reporters in the past, though not for a while.

[quicksite]

On the TPM channel, or the Uptake channel? I am speaking specifically of the TPM Media group, not uptake... please let me know. thanks!

[poseidon129266]

informative presentation!

[ruddypoo86]

It's a hard case to make for Hillary, i don't think she can base her whole premise for being the nominee solely on being more electable in the big swing states. She would at least need to equal or suprass Obama in the popular vote for her to seem even remotely legitimate. Maybe her fox news cronies and neo-con friends can help her out with the require publicity...

[gallomex13]

If we find a monkeys that can talk and teach them to fuck ants and procreate wales that can calculate metrics and can use charts to present the amount of bullshit we need to hear from Hillary for her to make her point to super delegates that she is not a hypocrite and she will make any bullshit up to just win and not follow rules then we can figure out WHY THE FUCK IS SHE EVEN STILL RUNNING???

[gallomex13]

Some one needs to go out side and chill in the sun for about 45 mins!

[hajqbvii]

okay...I'm confused...

[fishhead06]

Hillary is Mike Huckabee in a pantsuit.

[jonathanwindham]

If you count Michigan (where Hillary was the only top tier candidate on the ballots), Florida (where voters were told their votes would not count) and if you did NOT count the caucus states Hillary would have the popular vote.

Why don't we not count anyone who did not vote for Hillary while we're at it

[wolfpupinla]

rofl

[gholis]

very informative indeed.

[berig1]

informative as always, thanks!

[3henchmen]

is greg on a boat? It looks like hes getting knocked around.

[ClunkityClunk4Truth]

Greg appears nervous, but hopefully with more experience doing TPMTV he'll become relaxed.

[astro104]

YES...Hillary is now bringing the momentum that Obama once did bring. Hillary is raising record amounts of money in record times. She has millions rallying around her and the energy is taking Hillary to her NEXT VICTORY! Go Hillary! Go Indiana! Go Oregon! Pennsylvania Avenue...HERE WE COME! The Democrats WILL UNITE!

[parispeter2]

...behind Obama!!!

[Devin1498]

Actually most Hillary voters are suggesting that they will vote for McCain or not vote at all.

[parispeter2]

Sure, and Obama supporters are making similar pronouncements in the heat of the fray, but there will very likely be a candidate by June. Party militants will unite fairly quickly I think, probably behind Obama unless there is a huge reversal of fortunes, as they realize what's at stake, and then the wider Democratic public will have 5 months - along time in politics - to put aside any bitterness.

[ClunkityClunk4Truth]

Make sure Hillary pays off her debt before you get too happy about the alleged 'record amounts of money' coming in.

[CynicalSavior]

Did you even watch the video?

[snarkwaupaca]

Momentum and $3.20 gets you a cup of coffee.

[jonathanwindham]

Momentum from a 1 state winning streak.

[Monkeychowmobile]

Fight the Power