It didn't fool Marilyn Jarvik, who is listed in the Guinness Book as having the highest IQ. She got it right. I'll bet the article you referred to in Parade magazine was her column.
THERE ARE 16....... george, eagle, 13 arrowheads, anddddd on the front side, that little weird shape around the 1 in the top right, at the top left of that shape is a miniature eagle head.... thats 16
@scamschool what about the signatures? Those are headings. And the owl on the dollar bill? Total, that makes 17 heads. Not 14 :D Where's my free beer?
@UrbanizeThis I realized this error and erased this and made a new comment. But I guess it didn't get erased. And who the fuck cares if anything is spelled wrong on the internet anyways. Correcting someone just makes you look like a douche.
@genskie24 Lol Nice job getting defensive. I know it was a typo. You know it was a typo. I'm sure 99% of the people who read your comment knew it was a typo. (the other 1% probably being confused at what you meant) If you notice, I misspelled "Speling" on purpose to poke fun at it, not to ridicule you.
Already have seen this...seen it on Marilyn Vos Savant's Website. She's the one that posted the article in Parade many years ago. She has posted a few of the conversations she had with the PhD's concerning this problem.
This is incorrect. If he chose the middle card, according to his logic, the third would have a 66% chance. They both cant have a 66% chance. When there is 2 choices, the odds are ALWAYS 50%. Since both the middle and third card are flipped, either COULD have the king, what the flipped card is doesn't matter. Originally there is a 1/3 chance, since one card is removed, leaving 2 cards, it is 1/2.
@doghouse144 no, originally there is a 1/3 chance, but after taking out one of the variables to making it two choices LEFT, then switching the decision gives you the 1/3 chance so you have 66% instead of 50% if you switch.
@suburiboy I ran a sim in excel with 4000 trials. looks like you are right. Reason being is the removal of a 'bad card' is a direct function of the first card you choose. Choosing g1 first leads to choosing C in the end; G2 leads to C; and C leads to (G1 or G2). Yes, that's four options, but the last (G1 or G2) is a derivative of choosing C first, so prob of G1 at the end is 1/6 and same for G2. Ultimately, b/c of the dealer's actions, you want to lose first, which ha a prob of 2/3
@suburiboy Hi, I'm not going to explain I'm not a moron or that I haven't gone to school (maybe I am, and may I haven't, maybe I have, maybe I'm not) But, doesn't G1+C, G2+C, C+(G1 or G2) yield four options in reality?: G1+ C, G2+C, C+G1, C+G2, whereby switching gives you a 2/4 chance of winning. I'm not gonna say I'm right, but I do want to hear your thoughts... I can illustrate another example if you want...it may prove I'm totally nuts or that I have something.
@YoplaitOriginal You are being a dense troll, this is a well accepted trick. There are three doors; call them G1 G2 and C. You have a 2/3 chance of choosing the goat when you start. There are three options when the dealer flips the extra goat G1+C, G2+C, C+(G1 or G2). If you switch in the first two case, you win. The third card is not irrelevant, because you CAN choose it. You should go to school, this is Stat 101 stuff; It's kinda fun.
If dealer ALWAYS removes a goat, you ALWAYS end up with a car and a goat. No probability involved to get to the two cards. The 3rd card = red herring. There are really only 2 cards to begin with, although you see 3. One goat is a modular duplicate. Thus, prob of 50%.
If the exposed card is randomly chosen, you can end up with possibility of a goat-goat combo. There are three "final two" possibilities: GG, GC, CG. If you switch, you have a 2/6 chance, or 1/3 (33%)
This only holds true IF it is based on always revealing one of the "goats" or bad cards... THEN making this decision. Otherwise, there is no difference.
Staying gives a 66 percent chance of getting a goat, and a 33 percent chance of getting the car, but switching gives you a 66 percent chance of winning the car and a 33 percent chance to get a goat. dont ask about the other 1 percent
I learned the monty hall problem in 9th grade and im now in college trying to explain it to my friends and they think im an idiot and that it isnt true......
count all the arrow heads, the eagle, Washington, the owl in the top left, and the spider's head on the top right (for the spider and owl you need a microscope to see them.)
I've got a better scam. If the contestant picks a goat end the game and don't give him the chance to switch. If he stays when he has the chance to switch, he still wins 1 in 3. But if he switches he now loses all the time instead of winning 2 out of 3.
@BecuzIt Actually, if the other "goat" is revealed, and you are given the chance to switch, you will win 2 out of 3 times. If you always stick with your first choice, you will win 1 out of 3 times. Think of it this way. If you always switch, you can only lose if you initially picked the "car". Since you have a 1/3 chance of picking the car first choice, you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch. Make sense?
@Kuploosh No, my comment said "...odds of 1 to 2, which is the same as a probability of 1/3."
The odds in favor of an event is expressed as a RATIO of the probability of the event to the probability of its complement; in other words, favorable outcomes over unfavorable outcomes, NOT total outcomes. The odds of rolling a 1 on a die would be 1:5 for example
I can see why you might have thought I was having confusion about the actual problem but you should have read carefully
I've spent so much time explaining this to friends... It's kind of a fun hobby! The main thing is there's a 2/3 chance you don't have the car. The host then opens a box which he knows doesn't contain the car (he has added additional information). Since there was only a 1 in 3 chance your original choice was right, there will be a 2 in 3 chance of winning if you switch to the other box. Mike still doesn't belive me.
Technically there are 16 heads, Washington, Eagle, 13 arrow heads put on the bill to represent the 13 orginal colonies PLUS most people don't know this but there is actually an owl on the on the dollar bill (GOOGLE IT) which would make 16
If you pause the video at 11:16 you can count 13 arrows, ones kinda hard to see but like i said 13 arrows for 13 original colonies
@carmium:its called variable change. when you first decide which door you want you have a 33% chance of choosing the car obviously, and there is a 66% percent chance that the car is behind the other two doors. So, when you reveal that there is a goat behind one door, that 66% chance still stays with those two doors. Finally, when you are asked to change, the odds are actually 66% to 33% not 50/50 so you should change.
Did anyone consider that if 1000 PhDs disagreed with this, they just might have been right? I cannot see why the odds should stay the same once the game has changed. If I walked up to three cards, two face down and one showing a "goat," and had to guess which of the face-downs had a car, would my chances not be 50/50? What's the difference if I tossed a penny onto one before I chose? The cards don't know what's going on. By showing a goat, he's narrowing the odds, not keeping them the same.
You're switching to an uninformed choice into a more informed one. The probability of a car is 33% on the first pick, and that does not change when you gain new information. However, the new information DOES tell you that in the case that you don't have the car, it's behind the other door. Since we've established that the chance you picked a car first is 33%, there's a 66% chance that the other one will have it.
@Toastrecon1 How could the odds not change?!? You've gone to a choice of one out of two, a brand new game in effect, and there is no reason in hell that the car couldn't have been placed behind either with equal ease. Monty has narrowed the odds for you, and a goat standing in an open door has no effect whatsoever on where the car is. Stay or stick, it's 50/50. Geez, I wish Mythbusters would do this one.
Because the card you pick has a 33% chance of being a car. That's it. No matter what the host does, it doesn't change the odds of your first pick being a car.
If you pick a goat and don't switch from it, you get a goat. No matter what. Since you have a 66% chance of getting a goat, you have a 66% chance of losing if you don't switch.
@Toastrecon1 Thanks for re-explaining it yet again, Toast! 8-) Okay, if the odds don't change. let me reiterate my example: I choose Door 1, say, and have a 33% chance of a car, right? That never changes, right? To quote you, "No matter what the host does, it doesn't change the odds." Only this time, Monty opens #2 and reveals the car! Am I out of luck? Not according to you and many others. I still MUST have a 33% chance of winning a car yet! Explain how this works, please.
In the question, the host opens a door that has a goat behind it. If it had a car, then your chances would be 0% after that new information. It would be a shitty game if he revealed the car, yes.
However, you must look at the strategy. The strategy does NOT adapt to the new information at all. The strategy says "pick a door, look behind it" essentially.
Furthermore, strategy number 2, "switching", has an increased chance because the host eliminates one wrong answer. Since he eliminated one wrong answer among two answers, the answer he DIDN'T eliminate has an increased chance of being right.
Imagine a 3 answer question in "who wants to be a millionaire". You chose and answer, then she eliminates a wrong answer among the two left. The one she DIDN'T eliminate has a stronger chance of being right then the one you picked through chance.
@Toastrecon1 Well, I thank you for your time spent trying to explain it to me, but every time I read your (or other) replies, it sounds like another argument for my side, so I'm obviously not seeing what you're seeing. The odds never change when I say they do, but change when I posit an example. You can't have it black and white at the same time, in my view. I may just set up a test of this with playing cards and bother everyone I can think of to play! Maybe I'll finally get it. Or not.
Interesting--however, I already had known this. From the textbook used in my Introductory Statistics class at my local community college (David Moore's "The Basic Practice of Statistics"--a popular statistics textbook. This particular problem was an "odd-numbered" problem that was fully explained in the accompanying study guide).
thanks for the bonus scam at the end. i bet my mom she couldn't find all the heads on the dollar bill, if she won she could keep the dollar if not i can stay up late with out her complaint... she didn't find all the heads :-)
if you dont get why the original choice is not a 50-50, heres how i help my self to understand. lets say now we have 50 doors, and you pick a door, then the host opens the other 48 doors, altho theres only 2 doors left, but is your choice 50-50? no, because you did not choose between 2 doors, you chose between 50 doors, no matter what the host did, if you stick with your original choice, the possibility remains the same, 1/50 ( or 1/3) and if you swich, the possibility will be 1- ( original %)
I think there's 18 heads on a dollar bill. George Wahington's Head (1), the Eagle's Head (2), the 13 arrow heads (16), then the secret owl's head (17), and the secret skeleton head (18).
actually it is doctor of philosophy, something you sir will never achieve. go back to doing slave labor and keep it quiet if you arent asked to speak.
If the 3 cards game was 100% random, it wouldn't matter at all what card u choose, it's always 1 in 3 if he shows a random card. The thing is he always shows a losing card therefor it screws with you.
you all say 15 but your all WRONG there are 16 heads because if you look at the upper right 1 in the front of the bill there is a really small owl ditting aside of the 1 (google it if you dont believe me )
@jorisding That's not an owl. It's not a spider either. It's just a pattern that appears on the front of the dollar bill. Look along the edges and you'll see that there are two on the bottom, one on the right, one on the top (the place you mentioned), and one on the left. Just cover up the long "legs" and you'll see that it's just a pattern. OMG-Facts got this wrong too, so don't feel bad.
I counted 13 arrow heads, G Washington, and the Eagle on the back = 15 heads.
i did the card paradox (and i counted cause it started to creep me out) 26 times and all tries i gave it the result was a "car" in the middle. why is it always in the middle?
i did the card paradox (and i counted cause it started to creep me out) 26 and all tries i gave it the result was a "car" in the middle. why is it always in the middle?
@fluffy2700 because theres a 2/3rd chance that the card you originally picked is NOT the car. So if you most likely picked a goat, and another door is revealed to you that is also a goat, the one you didnt pick is most likely the car. Remember you picked a goat, and one door is eliminated which is also a goat so the only thing left is the car.
ok..... i figured out in about 2 seconds that if you switch you hav a better chance of winning before he even said it, and 1,000 PhDs cant figure that out??? come on ppl im 13!
@nathywathy93 Yeah =) , I learned to understand this last year in school, when we learned how to make a probability diagram =) turns out they actually teach you useful stuff at school.
@nathywathy93 I know how this works but it's really confusing when someone explains it with text. It's best to show it visually since most people are visual.
There are more scenarios that what he stated. he stated 3, and you win twice. But what about the scenario where they reveal the car and not a goat? NOW what are your odds? This only works out like the video states if the party revealing the door/ card intentionally reveals a goat. And if that's the case, you really only had a 50/50 chance to begin with because the other goat was never really in play, they were going to reveal it to you regardless of which card you picked. prove me wrong.
i dont think this is as complicated as it seems. On your first choice the prize is outnumbered by goats so there is a 2 to 1 chance you'll pick a goat. so most of the time you pick goat. easy! lol so the switch is always he best choice.
there is actually 18 heads:13 arrow heads, the head of George, the eagle's head, an owl's head on the front side of the bill next to the 1 in the top right hand corner, and the two heads of the treasury who signed their names.
21
18account190 3 days ago
It didn't fool Marilyn Jarvik, who is listed in the Guinness Book as having the highest IQ. She got it right. I'll bet the article you referred to in Parade magazine was her column.
TheMatrix72370 3 weeks ago
tbh i would rather get a goat then a car
jonyboy1226 1 month ago
I gratuated, wheres my beer goggles???
PatchworkMagic 1 month ago
THERE ARE 16....... george, eagle, 13 arrowheads, anddddd on the front side, that little weird shape around the 1 in the top right, at the top left of that shape is a miniature eagle head.... thats 16
DoYourCubeXD 1 month ago
you forgot the 4th possibility.
You pick one card, then you flip one over and its the car.
klaz48 2 months ago
@klaz48 The host of the show knows the locations of the car and the goats, and always reveals a goat.
empowers90 2 months ago
@scamschool what about the signatures? Those are headings. And the owl on the dollar bill? Total, that makes 17 heads. Not 14 :D Where's my free beer?
chrissydude1 2 months ago
@chrissydude1 then if we get technical theres one more because washington is head of the country so theres 18
terqo686 1 month ago
@terqo686 Well played good sir/ma'am. I hadn't thought of that...... I suppose I have to buy you a drink?
chrissydude1 1 month ago
@chrissydude1 yep...
terqo686 1 month ago
Mmm, Emma Watson.
gahzeyboe 2 months ago
i knew the answer at the very beginning becuz i saw it in an episode of Numb3rs.
thesixofspade 2 months ago
this was in 21, but i never looked at it the second way he explained it.
Snapback97 3 months ago
@562ole oh, you didnt fucking ge tit wither. dumbaSS
guineapiggyman 3 months ago
Yeah I count 13 arrow heads plus George and the eagle... 15
strongbad822 4 months ago
This was in the movie 21!
DWCist 4 months ago
Say this in the movie 21. Match FTW. Too bad I'm not good at it.
genskie24 5 months ago
@genskie24 Looks like Speling isn't your best subject either.
UrbanizeThis 3 months ago
@UrbanizeThis I realized this error and erased this and made a new comment. But I guess it didn't get erased. And who the fuck cares if anything is spelled wrong on the internet anyways. Correcting someone just makes you look like a douche.
genskie24 3 months ago
@genskie24 Lol Nice job getting defensive. I know it was a typo. You know it was a typo. I'm sure 99% of the people who read your comment knew it was a typo. (the other 1% probably being confused at what you meant) If you notice, I misspelled "Speling" on purpose to poke fun at it, not to ridicule you.
"Why so serious?"
UrbanizeThis 3 months ago
This has been flagged as spam show
Saw this in the movie 21. Or something like it.
genskie24 5 months ago
Comment removed
genskie24 5 months ago
wheres the paradox?
JavaSpitLava 5 months ago
2 outta 3 times...kinda like the naked man!!
frenzal89 5 months ago
There's also an owl...hence an owl head....i.e. 15 ;)
kovke1985 5 months ago
@kovke1985 That's 16. There are 13 arrowheads, not 12.
lightbulbsocket 4 months ago
Already have seen this...seen it on Marilyn Vos Savant's Website. She's the one that posted the article in Parade many years ago. She has posted a few of the conversations she had with the PhD's concerning this problem.
Masterwow123 5 months ago
15 heads! Lol. 13 arrows!
dlvmark 5 months ago
this was in the movie 21 in the begging
puremx1x 5 months ago
4:57 skip first ad
9:20 skip second ad
GoodLegoInventions 5 months ago 19
This is incorrect. If he chose the middle card, according to his logic, the third would have a 66% chance. They both cant have a 66% chance. When there is 2 choices, the odds are ALWAYS 50%. Since both the middle and third card are flipped, either COULD have the king, what the flipped card is doesn't matter. Originally there is a 1/3 chance, since one card is removed, leaving 2 cards, it is 1/2.
doghouse144 6 months ago
@doghouse144 no, originally there is a 1/3 chance, but after taking out one of the variables to making it two choices LEFT, then switching the decision gives you the 1/3 chance so you have 66% instead of 50% if you switch.
7Lakings7 6 months ago
13 arrow heads
thedarrch 6 months ago
I already knew this :(
KaLdEeShSiNgHjOhAl 6 months ago
Hey Brian do u play wow? lol
Bingbampow 6 months ago
PhDs dont play cards..they play mario on a calculator..
Bingbampow 6 months ago
@suburiboy I ran a sim in excel with 4000 trials. looks like you are right. Reason being is the removal of a 'bad card' is a direct function of the first card you choose. Choosing g1 first leads to choosing C in the end; G2 leads to C; and C leads to (G1 or G2). Yes, that's four options, but the last (G1 or G2) is a derivative of choosing C first, so prob of G1 at the end is 1/6 and same for G2. Ultimately, b/c of the dealer's actions, you want to lose first, which ha a prob of 2/3
YoplaitOriginal 6 months ago
@suburiboy Hi, I'm not going to explain I'm not a moron or that I haven't gone to school (maybe I am, and may I haven't, maybe I have, maybe I'm not) But, doesn't G1+C, G2+C, C+(G1 or G2) yield four options in reality?: G1+ C, G2+C, C+G1, C+G2, whereby switching gives you a 2/4 chance of winning. I'm not gonna say I'm right, but I do want to hear your thoughts... I can illustrate another example if you want...it may prove I'm totally nuts or that I have something.
YoplaitOriginal 6 months ago
what about that super tiny owl?
wizzboy5000000000000 6 months ago
@wizzboy5000000000000 ahhh.... they dont know about that one... and i think its a spider idk.
Bingbampow 6 months ago
funkytown
ipodgames1000 6 months ago
Switching provides no raw statistical advantage, only maybe a psychological advantage to the dealer/host to offer the contestant to switch.
It doesn't really help your odds of winning (see post below)
YoplaitOriginal 7 months ago
@YoplaitOriginal You are being a dense troll, this is a well accepted trick. There are three doors; call them G1 G2 and C. You have a 2/3 chance of choosing the goat when you start. There are three options when the dealer flips the extra goat G1+C, G2+C, C+(G1 or G2). If you switch in the first two case, you win. The third card is not irrelevant, because you CAN choose it. You should go to school, this is Stat 101 stuff; It's kinda fun.
suburiboy 6 months ago
Switching is irrelevant.
If dealer ALWAYS removes a goat, you ALWAYS end up with a car and a goat. No probability involved to get to the two cards. The 3rd card = red herring. There are really only 2 cards to begin with, although you see 3. One goat is a modular duplicate. Thus, prob of 50%.
If the exposed card is randomly chosen, you can end up with possibility of a goat-goat combo. There are three "final two" possibilities: GG, GC, CG. If you switch, you have a 2/6 chance, or 1/3 (33%)
YoplaitOriginal 7 months ago
@YoplaitOriginal didn't you watch the video?
Alfalotter 6 months ago
@YoplaitOriginal dude you had a 1 / 3 chance to guess right the first time he removed one giving you a chance at 66.66 % if you switch you moron!!
stickymations 6 months ago
@YoplaitOriginal He always removes the other goat!! You Moron
stickymations 6 months ago
Comment removed
YoplaitOriginal 7 months ago
well actually statisticly, you would only have 2/3 chance of picking a goat only if u would reveal one first.
danosdrake 7 months ago
I only clicked on this video cuz I saw the picture of Emma Watson...
ThtFilipinoGuy 7 months ago
Wasn't that in the movie 21?
EminentCreatorZ 7 months ago
This only holds true IF it is based on always revealing one of the "goats" or bad cards... THEN making this decision. Otherwise, there is no difference.
ucmagic 7 months ago
Staying gives a 66 percent chance of getting a goat, and a 33 percent chance of getting the car, but switching gives you a 66 percent chance of winning the car and a 33 percent chance to get a goat. dont ask about the other 1 percent
BazookaPig 7 months ago
@BazookaPig its actually 33.3333333333 or 66.6666666 repeating forever so its impossible to put the exact .oooooo percent
james123428 7 months ago
Holy shit, this is my favorite puzzle and i know the answer for once...
BazookaPig 7 months ago
@TheDropShotMaster yea, i knew to chage thanks to movie 21.
xcseal 7 months ago
actually there are 15 heads on a dollar bill. on the front of the bill on the top right 1 on the thing around it in the little div it there is an owl
matthebat1234 8 months ago
I learned the monty hall problem in 9th grade and im now in college trying to explain it to my friends and they think im an idiot and that it isnt true......
ColtTenney 8 months ago
so amaaaaaaaaaaaaaaazzzzzzzzzzzzziiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnggggggg!!!!!!!!!!!
RyanPlayChess 8 months ago
8bitmagic is right about the 13 and the hidden owl head on the top right that the artist snuck in.
HockeyTunes 9 months ago
but I thought the answer was 18
1 Washington
1 Eagle
13 arrows (look closely)
2 "heads" of treasury or whatever who signed the fron
1 spider/owl head above and to the left of the 1
I may be wrong about the signatures but even so you missed 2 heads
8bitmagic 10 months ago
count all the arrow heads, the eagle, Washington, the owl in the top left, and the spider's head on the top right (for the spider and owl you need a microscope to see them.)
TheRedLettuce 10 months ago
There are 13 arrow heads. Not 12.
SugarFreeNubCakes 11 months ago 9
@SugarFreeNubCakes ONE OF THEMS IN MY KNEE!!!
MattMotionTV 1 month ago
duh... They were probably phd's in fake sciences
RisefromyourGRAVE 11 months ago
there are 15 heads the arrowheads, eagles head,whashingtons head, and the owl in the top right hand corner behind the 1
thepokemaster519 11 months ago
I've got a better scam. If the contestant picks a goat end the game and don't give him the chance to switch. If he stays when he has the chance to switch, he still wins 1 in 3. But if he switches he now loses all the time instead of winning 2 out of 3.
UTJhn 1 year ago
I don't think it's really a paradox, but this is still a great video. :)
mongoose308 1 year ago
one more head...the owl on the top left
MrRyan1789 1 year ago
Saw this on "numb3rs"! Freaking simple!
spinamajig 1 year ago
in mathematical terms, odds would be 1 to 2, which is the same as a probability of 1/3. "odds" are expressed as favorable over unfavorable
since it's colloquial here , hardly a matter of consequence to most people, but still...
BecuzIt 1 year ago
@BecuzIt Actually, if the other "goat" is revealed, and you are given the chance to switch, you will win 2 out of 3 times. If you always stick with your first choice, you will win 1 out of 3 times. Think of it this way. If you always switch, you can only lose if you initially picked the "car". Since you have a 1/3 chance of picking the car first choice, you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch. Make sense?
Kuploosh 11 months ago
@Kuploosh No, my comment said "...odds of 1 to 2, which is the same as a probability of 1/3."
The odds in favor of an event is expressed as a RATIO of the probability of the event to the probability of its complement; in other words, favorable outcomes over unfavorable outcomes, NOT total outcomes. The odds of rolling a 1 on a die would be 1:5 for example
I can see why you might have thought I was having confusion about the actual problem but you should have read carefully
BecuzIt 11 months ago
@BecuzIt Sorry for some reason I completely overlooked the word 'to'. I'll read twice before commenting next time. :)
Kuploosh 11 months ago
there are 13 arrow heads not 12......
cblouin06 1 year ago 37
@cblouin06 and this isn't a paradox, why does he keep referring to it as a paradox?
WhiteHenny 1 year ago
I've spent so much time explaining this to friends... It's kind of a fun hobby! The main thing is there's a 2/3 chance you don't have the car. The host then opens a box which he knows doesn't contain the car (he has added additional information). Since there was only a 1 in 3 chance your original choice was right, there will be a 2 in 3 chance of winning if you switch to the other box. Mike still doesn't belive me.
balloonchicken 1 year ago
15 heads. they missed the owl
coprophob907 1 year ago
@coprophob907 and the alien :)
WhiteHenny 1 year ago
wtf is up with these ads?!
joblagz 1 year ago
I knew this and I'm 13 but still pretty cool.
BaileyAwesomeSmile 1 year ago
READ THIS
Technically there are 16 heads, Washington, Eagle, 13 arrow heads put on the bill to represent the 13 orginal colonies PLUS most people don't know this but there is actually an owl on the on the dollar bill (GOOGLE IT) which would make 16
If you pause the video at 11:16 you can count 13 arrows, ones kinda hard to see but like i said 13 arrows for 13 original colonies
MetalSkull420 1 year ago
There are actually 13 arrow heads which whould make it 15 heads on a dollar.
Cash8452 1 year ago
@carmium:its called variable change. when you first decide which door you want you have a 33% chance of choosing the car obviously, and there is a 66% percent chance that the car is behind the other two doors. So, when you reveal that there is a goat behind one door, that 66% chance still stays with those two doors. Finally, when you are asked to change, the odds are actually 66% to 33% not 50/50 so you should change.
brenthh359 1 year ago
@brenthh359 THE ODDS CHANGE. I get new information, the probability changes. End of story.
carmium 1 year ago
Did anyone consider that if 1000 PhDs disagreed with this, they just might have been right? I cannot see why the odds should stay the same once the game has changed. If I walked up to three cards, two face down and one showing a "goat," and had to guess which of the face-downs had a car, would my chances not be 50/50? What's the difference if I tossed a penny onto one before I chose? The cards don't know what's going on. By showing a goat, he's narrowing the odds, not keeping them the same.
carmium 1 year ago
@carmium
You're switching to an uninformed choice into a more informed one. The probability of a car is 33% on the first pick, and that does not change when you gain new information. However, the new information DOES tell you that in the case that you don't have the car, it's behind the other door. Since we've established that the chance you picked a car first is 33%, there's a 66% chance that the other one will have it.
Toastrecon1 1 year ago
@Toastrecon1 How could the odds not change?!? You've gone to a choice of one out of two, a brand new game in effect, and there is no reason in hell that the car couldn't have been placed behind either with equal ease. Monty has narrowed the odds for you, and a goat standing in an open door has no effect whatsoever on where the car is. Stay or stick, it's 50/50. Geez, I wish Mythbusters would do this one.
carmium 1 year ago
@carmium
Because the card you pick has a 33% chance of being a car. That's it. No matter what the host does, it doesn't change the odds of your first pick being a car.
If you pick a goat and don't switch from it, you get a goat. No matter what. Since you have a 66% chance of getting a goat, you have a 66% chance of losing if you don't switch.
Toastrecon1 1 year ago
@Toastrecon1 Thanks for re-explaining it yet again, Toast! 8-) Okay, if the odds don't change. let me reiterate my example: I choose Door 1, say, and have a 33% chance of a car, right? That never changes, right? To quote you, "No matter what the host does, it doesn't change the odds." Only this time, Monty opens #2 and reveals the car! Am I out of luck? Not according to you and many others. I still MUST have a 33% chance of winning a car yet! Explain how this works, please.
carmium 1 year ago
@carmium
In the question, the host opens a door that has a goat behind it. If it had a car, then your chances would be 0% after that new information. It would be a shitty game if he revealed the car, yes.
However, you must look at the strategy. The strategy does NOT adapt to the new information at all. The strategy says "pick a door, look behind it" essentially.
Toastrecon1 1 year ago
@carmium
Furthermore, strategy number 2, "switching", has an increased chance because the host eliminates one wrong answer. Since he eliminated one wrong answer among two answers, the answer he DIDN'T eliminate has an increased chance of being right.
Imagine a 3 answer question in "who wants to be a millionaire". You chose and answer, then she eliminates a wrong answer among the two left. The one she DIDN'T eliminate has a stronger chance of being right then the one you picked through chance.
Toastrecon1 1 year ago
@Toastrecon1 Well, I thank you for your time spent trying to explain it to me, but every time I read your (or other) replies, it sounds like another argument for my side, so I'm obviously not seeing what you're seeing. The odds never change when I say they do, but change when I posit an example. You can't have it black and white at the same time, in my view. I may just set up a test of this with playing cards and bother everyone I can think of to play! Maybe I'll finally get it. Or not.
carmium 1 year ago
this was in the movie 21..., very common stats question, almost anyone with a colege degree would get it.
victormolinari91 1 year ago
FAIL theres 13 arrow heads
mnkychz 1 year ago 2
Interesting--however, I already had known this. From the textbook used in my Introductory Statistics class at my local community college (David Moore's "The Basic Practice of Statistics"--a popular statistics textbook. This particular problem was an "odd-numbered" problem that was fully explained in the accompanying study guide).
ticks4ticks4 1 year ago
actually you could cont the two signatures on the bill as two more "heads"!
Maibaum01 1 year ago
thanks for the bonus scam at the end. i bet my mom she couldn't find all the heads on the dollar bill, if she won she could keep the dollar if not i can stay up late with out her complaint... she didn't find all the heads :-)
christianchick742 1 year ago
Would you count washington's head as a head, but washington himself as a head of state?
molewizard 1 year ago
Comment removed
molewizard 1 year ago
i don't get it
dantheman1507 1 year ago
There are 16 heads. Washington, the eagle, the 13 arrow heads, and a tiny owl in the top right corner of the front of the dollar.
789TheBeatles 1 year ago
are those cards he were holding propaganda cards??
dsavetark 1 year ago
@dsavetark yes they are
WORLDdystopian 1 year ago
@WORLDdystopian cool thanks!!^^
dsavetark 1 year ago
if you dont get why the original choice is not a 50-50, heres how i help my self to understand. lets say now we have 50 doors, and you pick a door, then the host opens the other 48 doors, altho theres only 2 doors left, but is your choice 50-50? no, because you did not choose between 2 doors, you chose between 50 doors, no matter what the host did, if you stick with your original choice, the possibility remains the same, 1/50 ( or 1/3) and if you swich, the possibility will be 1- ( original %)
cthatshit 1 year ago
if you skip to 0:39 at the beggining t sounds like he says f you
kyle110438 1 year ago
I think there's 18 heads on a dollar bill. George Wahington's Head (1), the Eagle's Head (2), the 13 arrow heads (16), then the secret owl's head (17), and the secret skeleton head (18).
legendariers 1 year ago
P=preety
H=huge
D=dick
YoYoTechYo 1 year ago 27
@YoYoTechYo
actually it is doctor of philosophy, something you sir will never achieve. go back to doing slave labor and keep it quiet if you arent asked to speak.
ej2project 6 months ago
@ej2project I'm pretty sure he knew that already....it's called a joke, sir.
0000Freedom 5 months ago
If the 3 cards game was 100% random, it wouldn't matter at all what card u choose, it's always 1 in 3 if he shows a random card. The thing is he always shows a losing card therefor it screws with you.
rey619yomama 1 year ago
13 arrow heads.
vDubrivation 1 year ago
therz 13 arrows btw im irish so i use pounds not dollars :( anythin with pound coins or notes plz if u can make a episode with that
123themysteryman789 1 year ago
fuck happened to your hair? lightning?
happysplinters 1 year ago
wait what?!
nickman310 1 year ago
SWAP!!!
CRISNCHIPS12398 1 year ago
he just wanted to give them a beer
IrvRodriguez 1 year ago
you all say 15 but your all WRONG there are 16 heads because if you look at the upper right 1 in the front of the bill there is a really small owl ditting aside of the 1 (google it if you dont believe me )
jorisding 1 year ago
@jorisding There are actually 16 if u count the owl, being that there are 13 ARROW HEADS !!!
victorsaldivar1 1 year ago
@victorsaldivar1 thats what i said
jorisding 1 year ago
@ur rong too becaus ethere isnt 16 there is 17 because there is 13 arrows
TheKaz93 1 year ago
@jorisding That's not an owl. It's not a spider either. It's just a pattern that appears on the front of the dollar bill. Look along the edges and you'll see that there are two on the bottom, one on the right, one on the top (the place you mentioned), and one on the left. Just cover up the long "legs" and you'll see that it's just a pattern. OMG-Facts got this wrong too, so don't feel bad.
I counted 13 arrow heads, G Washington, and the Eagle on the back = 15 heads.
I guess Brian was drunk?
ogonga94 1 year ago
Theory 11 propaganda cards...very nice
DJQuarentine 1 year ago
0:01 skip the beginning ad
dracxin 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
i did the card paradox (and i counted cause it started to creep me out) 26 times and all tries i gave it the result was a "car" in the middle. why is it always in the middle?
SlipKnoTIsLifeStYlE 1 year ago
i did the card paradox (and i counted cause it started to creep me out) 26 and all tries i gave it the result was a "car" in the middle. why is it always in the middle?
SlipKnoTIsLifeStYlE 1 year ago
there is one more head
its on the corner of the 1
flyingbologna 1 year ago
old trick.
amoghthegamer 1 year ago
There is 16 heads. There is Washington, the arrows, the eagle, and the tiny owl.
yearlytaxform 1 year ago
The ODDS are 1:2, NOT 1/3. The PROBABILITY is 1/3
Odds are different, they are a ratio.
Probability is a fraction.
SandwhichDepartment 1 year ago
Dumbass. There is 13 arrow heads.. Wich makes 15 heads
Honeebuket 1 year ago
Can someone tell me why are people saying it's not 12? And how did you guys count 13...How did he count 14? It's clearly 15. :S
nelsyeung 1 year ago
awww,,, dam , i was just gonna point out that he missed the owls head too,,,, 15 heads,,, not 14 :)
TheEddiedl 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
Date an Asian lady #lushfmlk.info#
ushapaul355 1 year ago
there is 13 arrows, one eagle, one president and one owl!
svampebob007 1 year ago
ll i knew that there were 13 arrow heads as well :p
NicholasEvangelista 1 year ago
there are 13 arrow heads not 12
dashtoash 1 year ago
ahhh I was like lets watch this but I had already seen this in the movie 21 and it came out ages ago than this nice video though
haoluo 1 year ago
i know im gonna sound like one of the loosers who dont get it, but why wouldnt the odds become 50 50 when theres 2 cards left?
fluffy2700 1 year ago
@fluffy2700 because theres a 2/3rd chance that the card you originally picked is NOT the car. So if you most likely picked a goat, and another door is revealed to you that is also a goat, the one you didnt pick is most likely the car. Remember you picked a goat, and one door is eliminated which is also a goat so the only thing left is the car.
NebunLaCap 1 year ago
GUESS AGAIN... THERE ARE 15 "HEADS" ON A DOLLAR BILL... 13 NOT 12 ARROW HEADS.... 13 FOR THE ORIGINAL 13 COLONIES.... DUH
Stinger1025 1 year ago
0:00
MagicianTheGreat 1 year ago
ok..... i figured out in about 2 seconds that if you switch you hav a better chance of winning before he even said it, and 1,000 PhDs cant figure that out??? come on ppl im 13!
12ViperPilot 1 year ago
Way to count there are 13 arrow heads that makes 15
vejj5454 1 year ago
0:18 4:57 9:21 - Skip the ads.
aknipe106 1 year ago 55
It's like this...
Theres three "cards"
You pick 1 card (this card has a 1 in 3 chance of having a car)
The OTHER 2 cards have a 2 in 3 chance of having the car
If one of the "other" 2 cards is revealed then the second "other" card has the total 2 in 3 chance of being the car
Therefore the card you picked has a 1/3 chance of being the car while the other unflipped card has a 2/3 chance of being the car
nathywathy93 1 year ago
@nathywathy93 Yeah =) , I learned to understand this last year in school, when we learned how to make a probability diagram =) turns out they actually teach you useful stuff at school.
aknipe106 1 year ago
@nathywathy93 I know how this works but it's really confusing when someone explains it with text. It's best to show it visually since most people are visual.
MrIam1nsane 1 year ago
you should change but i couldnt remember why....lol
lifeless080 1 year ago
5:00 all 3 cards face down. Pull your head out editor.
dcraig2204 1 year ago
there is really only 16 heads on a $1. washingtons,eagles,13 arrows, and the sipders head in the upper right hand corner on the side with washington.
gungun6262 1 year ago
There are more scenarios that what he stated. he stated 3, and you win twice. But what about the scenario where they reveal the car and not a goat? NOW what are your odds? This only works out like the video states if the party revealing the door/ card intentionally reveals a goat. And if that's the case, you really only had a 50/50 chance to begin with because the other goat was never really in play, they were going to reveal it to you regardless of which card you picked. prove me wrong.
justfurfunny 1 year ago
@justfurfunny Well your odds are zero if they reveal the cars first you dumbass
cfl990 1 year ago
@cfl990 IT WAS A RHETORICAL QUESTION YOU STUPID FAT ASS.
justfurfunny 1 year ago
@justfurfunny nice got me faggot
cfl990 1 year ago
Phd is a document....not a person. Just like Michal Phelps is not a Gold Medal.
superherobyday 1 year ago
Yeah...they don't care.
superherobyday 1 year ago
this is from the movie 21
CCAProduction100 1 year ago
This is pretty epic.
Asemco 1 year ago
hahas....propaganda 909 edition
iamcool59 1 year ago
@ariashiguera
Doesn't work.
emulator15 1 year ago
The names of the signatures were people that were heads
NerdsRI 1 year ago
No about this iPhone killer and prostitute........
illusionfreak 1 year ago
im gay
DyNaIVIiC 1 year ago
i dont think this is as complicated as it seems. On your first choice the prize is outnumbered by goats so there is a 2 to 1 chance you'll pick a goat. so most of the time you pick goat. easy! lol so the switch is always he best choice.
CelestialDependency 1 year ago
to bad that in the country i have we dont have a dollar :P
RedBricksWall 1 year ago
wow theory 11 propogandas?
TheConfucius 1 year ago
i love teaching people this
ish537 1 year ago
u forgot about the head of sucurity and the other ones on the dollar bill
pinoybogoy97 1 year ago
there is actually 18 heads:13 arrow heads, the head of George, the eagle's head, an owl's head on the front side of the bill next to the 1 in the top right hand corner, and the two heads of the treasury who signed their names.
awolvesdestiny 1 year ago