This gravity defying rally (even with the weak technicals) looks impressive. But another big gap up on the Nasdaq and S&P, as well as a small one on the DOW, adds to the fragility of the rally (add in continued weak volume). Nasd slow stochastics also went briefly below support. When it does come down, look out below. Still cautiously bearish here.
@rfdoomz I don't. It's coming. It's the only trick the gangsters have left, and they want to avoid deflation at all costs. Whether it will be announced as QE round two or, much more likely, disguised as something else, the result will be the same - soaring stock, commodity and gold prices. And butt loads more money being printed.
@rfdoomz I'm thinking that they may want to run things down to make it easier to implement QE but they may also just want to keep things looking like what they've done so far is working and keep things moving along.
The fundamentals are ugly but I don't like betting against the guys with the printing press. Even if the market only goes up in nominal terms, it affects our accounts.
The current, short term trend is now up so I will cautiously play the up side.
I'm a novice and know nothing about investing. However, I recently started investing in TZA and noticed that over the last several months the ETF consistently bottoms out around the 15th and peaks around the 7th (+/- 2days). Should I be following the timeline, Russell 2000 hi/lows, or something else?
@OldMrGrace, no, my first investment is not TZA. I stated that I recently started investing in TZA. It seems to work for me when I buy it around the 15th and sell it on the 7th. I was looking for constructive comments. There is probably a better approach to investing and that is why I'm here, to learn something from the more experienced. Wishing me luck me luck doesn't really say much about why the market seems to bottom around the first week of the month only to jump to a high in the second.
@richgac21 I apologize to you: I partly misread your initial post. I did not mean to sound sarcastic. I am just surprised that you "know nothing about investing" yet you have chosen a highly leveraged fund that is capable of going against you by 300%. If you have found a pattern in the price and you can catch it on its way up and sell as it tops out then you are a smarter trader than I am. Your timing does have to be very accurate, especially with the volatility we have seen recently.
@richgac21 Please, please, please understand that TZA or any of the 2x and 3x ETFs are NOT "investments" due to their daily rebalancing they are intended for day trades only. If you are looking to short, set up your account to short and find weak individual stocks.
@LeedansParis, Thank you for the warning. I realize that it is a bearish ETF that trades daily and is not a long term investment. I just notice a pattern in whch the Russell 2000 peaks around the 15th and bottoms around the 7th. I keep buying it around the 15th and sellng (shorting) on the 7th. I'm learning as I go.
The reason why we are taking longer this time round to reach the 1930s great depression is the govt is controlling the media and dicing around with the economy indicators.
The facts are here, Europe having possibility of breaking up, Spain in great depression and the folks are still blinded by the Feds pretty figure.
Good earnings are in our rear mirror which moreover is spurred by our own tax money through stimulus. The next quarter will be very interesting.
Christian, I agree with your thesis, but couldn't inflation fears and the possible implementation of QE 2.0 by the Fed push equity prices much higher, thus destroying any short positions?
Good analysis.. thanks for the data/charts, very helpful. I know the Eurozone (PIIGS) is in a lot of trouble, but what will add fuel to the imminent market drop here is the new wave of foreclosures, mostly due to the reset of the option ARMS and Alt-As. which is growing and will peak in mid 2011. Commercial real estate also a growing head wind for banks. Maybe late 2011 things will finally turn around if the "depression" is handled properly.
Man I'm not good at kissin ass. but you are soooo sharp at this technical stuff. Really Really impressive regardless of whether your calls are right or not, your analysis is really amazin man.
Great tech analysis of the major stock indexes, but the Dow has been strong since the 30th.
forexyard 1 year ago
This gravity defying rally (even with the weak technicals) looks impressive. But another big gap up on the Nasdaq and S&P, as well as a small one on the DOW, adds to the fragility of the rally (add in continued weak volume). Nasd slow stochastics also went briefly below support. When it does come down, look out below. Still cautiously bearish here.
colty77 1 year ago
@rfdoomz Not only that, but Bernanke himself in his talk last week warned about the dangers of deficit spending.
cunnidvd 1 year ago
@rfdoomz It is ultrashort the FTSE as well...Go to yahoo finance and type in FXP and then click on profile.
Bmx33606 1 year ago
@rfdoomz I don't. It's coming. It's the only trick the gangsters have left, and they want to avoid deflation at all costs. Whether it will be announced as QE round two or, much more likely, disguised as something else, the result will be the same - soaring stock, commodity and gold prices. And butt loads more money being printed.
OldMrGrace 1 year ago
@rfdoomz I'm thinking that they may want to run things down to make it easier to implement QE but they may also just want to keep things looking like what they've done so far is working and keep things moving along.
The fundamentals are ugly but I don't like betting against the guys with the printing press. Even if the market only goes up in nominal terms, it affects our accounts.
The current, short term trend is now up so I will cautiously play the up side.
LeedansParis 1 year ago
Your graphics are just amazing! Could you plese tell me know to short FTSE? thanks!
TheChaco2009 1 year ago
@TheChaco2009 Buy FXP
Bmx33606 1 year ago
@Bmx33606 Thank you for your reply !!! Will do on Monday.
TheChaco2009 1 year ago
I'm a novice and know nothing about investing. However, I recently started investing in TZA and noticed that over the last several months the ETF consistently bottoms out around the 15th and peaks around the 7th (+/- 2days). Should I be following the timeline, Russell 2000 hi/lows, or something else?
richgac21 1 year ago
@richgac21 You're a novice and your first "investment" was in TZA??? Well....good luck coz you'll need it.
OldMrGrace 1 year ago
@OldMrGrace, no, my first investment is not TZA. I stated that I recently started investing in TZA. It seems to work for me when I buy it around the 15th and sell it on the 7th. I was looking for constructive comments. There is probably a better approach to investing and that is why I'm here, to learn something from the more experienced. Wishing me luck me luck doesn't really say much about why the market seems to bottom around the first week of the month only to jump to a high in the second.
richgac21 1 year ago
@richgac21
Play TZA and TNA back and forth. Make money in both dip and pullback! FAS/FAZ and DRN/DRV also good.
astoria3011 1 year ago
@richgac21 I apologize to you: I partly misread your initial post. I did not mean to sound sarcastic. I am just surprised that you "know nothing about investing" yet you have chosen a highly leveraged fund that is capable of going against you by 300%. If you have found a pattern in the price and you can catch it on its way up and sell as it tops out then you are a smarter trader than I am. Your timing does have to be very accurate, especially with the volatility we have seen recently.
OldMrGrace 1 year ago
@richgac21 I have made money on TZA it swings fast up and down, on a good down day you can make alot of money!
bohemianh 1 year ago
@richgac21 Please, please, please understand that TZA or any of the 2x and 3x ETFs are NOT "investments" due to their daily rebalancing they are intended for day trades only. If you are looking to short, set up your account to short and find weak individual stocks.
LeedansParis 1 year ago
@LeedansParis, Thank you for the warning. I realize that it is a bearish ETF that trades daily and is not a long term investment. I just notice a pattern in whch the Russell 2000 peaks around the 15th and bottoms around the 7th. I keep buying it around the 15th and sellng (shorting) on the 7th. I'm learning as I go.
richgac21 1 year ago
The reason why we are taking longer this time round to reach the 1930s great depression is the govt is controlling the media and dicing around with the economy indicators.
The facts are here, Europe having possibility of breaking up, Spain in great depression and the folks are still blinded by the Feds pretty figure.
Good earnings are in our rear mirror which moreover is spurred by our own tax money through stimulus. The next quarter will be very interesting.
alexandraxiaver 1 year ago
Christian, I agree with your thesis, but couldn't inflation fears and the possible implementation of QE 2.0 by the Fed push equity prices much higher, thus destroying any short positions?
mjKongo 1 year ago
you're the best Christian
cunnidvd 1 year ago
Good analysis.. thanks for the data/charts, very helpful. I know the Eurozone (PIIGS) is in a lot of trouble, but what will add fuel to the imminent market drop here is the new wave of foreclosures, mostly due to the reset of the option ARMS and Alt-As. which is growing and will peak in mid 2011. Commercial real estate also a growing head wind for banks. Maybe late 2011 things will finally turn around if the "depression" is handled properly.
Good luck to all.
colty77 1 year ago
Man I'm not good at kissin ass. but you are soooo sharp at this technical stuff. Really Really impressive regardless of whether your calls are right or not, your analysis is really amazin man.
Awildwildworld 1 year ago
Thanks for the video, great analysis!! I like the part where you say "PAY ATTENTION" but you should have added "OR I"LL HIT YOU WITH A STICK" LOL
Spain is already in a depression.....
goldwing25 1 year ago
It would be great to view where we are at compared to the Great Depression.
Bmx33606 1 year ago
It is maybe summer 1931...regardless of the short term...this market is busted up..and headed much lower by end year.
LondonCrusader 1 year ago