Dr. Vernor Vinge - Technology and New Populisms

[singularitysoup]

Great mind, very interesting man, fantastic novels...if you have not read True Names and Other Dangers, read it!

I submit that social adoption of tech is slower than the development of tech, though social progress (i.e. mass user acceptance testing) may not be required for strong AI - though social adoption is quickening. As a bottleneck we, and our limited black box brain architecture likely wont keep pace with self improving autonomous agents - its the nature of the Singularity idea.

[8legsFreak]

Absolutely brilliant man.

Still, I don't fully agree with singularity timescale he proposes, just as Kurzwail, he is too optimistic about accelerating tech progress, while ignoring very slow social progress.

[bighands69]

@8legsFreak

Kurzweil and vinge have based their trajectories on engineering and science.

Kurzweil has used Conservative growth and has not used optimism.

Social acceptance of these technologies is double in speed every generation.

[8legsFreak]

@bighands69 I mostly agree with you here, but I think that the speed of social acceptance, political regulation and market filtration is way slower than tech.progress.

in my opinion it is probable that there will be at least 10 to 20 years of lag, between the moment when transhuman tech is available, and when it is mainstream.

For example: corporations and lobbysts will oppose the rise of 3D printers, and nano-assemblers. Religious folk will oppose the acceptance of cybernetics and biotech etc.

[bighands69]

@8legsFreak

I do agree with you that there is special interest groups that will resist progress. But they cannot stop knowledge and they cannot stop the progress of science.

Social lag its self is reduced in half every generations. So the speed of social acceptance is also accelerating.

[8legsFreak]

@bighands69 I hope 100 years from now, we will be able to look back and say that you were right, and discuss the past while taking a day off on my luxurious space station on orbit, while robot bartender is fixing a drink for us , and pleasure bioroids give us backrubs:)

[PhillipH903]

vernor vinge!!! very interesting fella