The dollar carry trade, my mortgage bankers presentation

[spectrum0590]

Great video! Providing updates about economic status. Thanks for sharing great information.

[joescarafone]

A week or so ago I posted a comment regarding the carry trade and the turtles.

I just re-read it and I see had at least one typo. "It", the article was published in the the turtles, not me.

Sorry, my apologies.

Joe

[Joshforeclosureblank]

LOVE IT!

[silversunny]

Dollar is new Peso  -- not funny!!

[0PsycoDad0]

I´ve a question.

The JPY has been at a roughly 1:100 exchange rate to the USD during the carry trade years.

Isn´t a higher exchange rate the prequisite for a carry trade system?

Kind of elongating the lever by leting the USD exchange rate sink to, let´s say, 1:10 to the EUR?

[mrjaywilliams]

from the way how I see it.. it is down to the interest rates. If your base currency has the higher rate you go long the base eg GBP/JPY GBP is base.. which over time causes the exchange rate to go up(GBP/JPY in this example - as it did from 90-07) hence weakening the JPY - same applied for USD/JPY.

[Rizky06]

The Private 'Fed' will soon have us 'carrying' our dollars in a wheelbarrow!

[vanfarowe]

Japans debt to GDP ratio is worst than the US. With baby boomers retiring in Japan and high welfare costs and legacy costs on the economy.

[mrjaywilliams]

I would say US's debt ratio to GDP is higher than Japan .. in fact by almost 3 times.. This is external debt mind, also.. Japan has a current account trade surplus unlike the US

[lindabebe835]

U.S. Dollar is the new "Peso" LOL

[BoiseBaked]

Question for Peter or his listeners. When Peter says "it's cheap for hedges funds to borrow from the Fed" what he's really saying is since the Federal Reserve central bank is making it very cheap for banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve (and also by having low reserve requirements), the banks can make low interest loans to the hedge funds. That is, indirect loans from the fed. Right?

[csabasand]

If you want to print out Peter's entire 2006 speech, I have transcribed it. It is available on my homepage - check out my user profile (youtube won't allow me to post links).

The Hungarian translation of the first 5 parts is also available from there.

[oraclenvec]

the last 5 minutes had all the highlights!

[mooseythejuiceman]

While being a phenomenally informative and prescient presentation, the length of the video clip of the mortgage banker speech precludes it from going viral. Typically viral vidz need to be just a couple minutes long. (Like the Peter Schiff Was Right clips.)

[chadillac19]

someone should put the highlights of the mortgage clip into a 5 minute vid

[behearsoon]

Well,,,check this out

Iran firing off more missiles

Sunday, 27 September 2009

Google this headline:

Iran missile tests stoke tensions

It fired off two short range missles and

Iran is announcing that they will test a long-range Shahab-3 missile,

on Monday 9/28, which would have the capability to reach Isreal....

Hang tight and keep oil in your lamps!

[ixlr8colo]

Schiff for Senate! How about selling tshirts? I'd buy a bunch, in addition to my contribution.

[GuildF40]

All the GovT (global) do is divide the people and Rule them.

That same rule applies to religion.

God Jesus Budda and bla bla bla.

Who has the best invented god (yea I know you think you do)

Screw all religion & current Gov's, become a person and wake the F*** Up and THINK.

Trust real things like GOLD & SILVER cuz a shed load of sheeple will be praying in the streets and I can assure you you won't want to be one of them.

The news is doom & gloom and Shiff is the news reader.

[turtleblues66]

doom monger

[KodoTheShoe]

baaa baaa baaa baaaaa... keep fuckin' that chicken.

[turtleblues66]

you need help

[KodoTheShoe]

I need help? you're the one ignoring the signs that peter is warning us about. Nope.. I'll be fine when the SHTF. You'll be the one knocking on doors for handouts.

[turtleblues66]

LOL

[joescarafone]

Peter, I read an article on the carry trade about a year or so ago. I was published in the turtles.

The article claimed that the IRS was not taxing the Carry Trade. Your remarks?

Thanks for a GREAT job!

[EndTheFedRes]

When our government starts defaulting on its debt... YOU BETTER BUCKLE UP!

[EndTheFedRes]

Peter that was funny. "The dollar is the new peso"

Listen to this man, he knows what he's talking about.

[KiheiLawyer]

BUT WHAT IS YOUR SOLUTION??? Most people just want a house and modest things. Most people have nothing to save and they NEED credit to survive. Your solution of save for the future is fine in a bubble, bu how do you get out of what has been created?? If you want to be a Senator, answer THAT. You cannot.

[drewmandan]

Yes, people NEED their SUVs and iPhones. Please...

Maybe poor people should pay for food and rent instead of getting the next new cell phone. And don't tell me they don't.

[KiheiLawyer]

life is about experiences and happiness. and your health. the only people who care about "the dollar being 76 cents" are those that have money. But broker, including Schiff is PROVEN they really do not know jack as "conservative" investors lost most of their 401ks and retirements. Schiff is 'the sky is falling' kind of guy. The only alternative he presents is work for little, don't really have anything and you will be better off when you are dead.

[drewmandan]

When the dollar weakens, prices on staples like food and energy increase. This affects everybody. Do you think it's a coincidence that the extremely high oil and food prices of 2007 correlated with a weak dollar?

As for Schiff's brokerage, his clients performed much better than those invested in american funds. They still lost money at first, but now they are making tons of money compared to everyone else.

[jgdesign]

I can attest to that as a fact. I'm starting to make some significant profits. This coming depression is going to make me wealthy because I pay no attention to the establishment's lies. Schiff for Senate in 2010!

[hailgov]

Borrowing is good only if you use the capital to produce more or earn more.

My grandfather borrowed money to buy a farm. Nobody had to give him credit, his credit was his good name and reliable work history.

The money he borrowed was not the result of a politician or central banker. It was the result of his friends and neighbors who were also successful and saved their money in the same bank he borrowed from.

[hailgov]

Saving money is not only a benefit for the saver, but also the companies and individuals who borrow those savings. This is provided that they use the loans to create wealth so they can pay it back with interest.

[grossleinbach]

Schiff already answered that question. First the state will officially default on parts of his debt (because it´s impossible to repay all that debt) and he lets many banks go bankrupt without paying the creditors through FDIC. This move will eliminate huuuuge parts of the bad debt. Then many state employees will be fired and the state itself becomes much smaller thus more effective. Then YOU (because I´m not an American) have to rebuild the country (supporting individual responsibility)

[143DREWID]

buy precious metals with every paycheck to maintain purchase power in savings

Learn as our grandparents to save and then spend, PATIENCE. DELAYED GRATIFICATION.

easy solution to an ignorantly created problem.

satisfying the masses is the pro vote disease mentality of those in office now. get real.

[akparker1]

Im only 20 but this guy blows my mind!

[malumalumalu]

Yup, he definitely knows what he is talking about.

[fox20012]

I'm against the position of senator, I strongly recommend you run for King.

[hailgov]

Fundamentally, I am against the centralized power of a king, but I will settle for calling him "Lord Protector of the Republic".

[jryan1971]

Karl Denninger talks about this box the Fed is in on his market-ticker blog.

[feverpitch82]

I havent listened to this video yet but as I read he spoils the ending to surrogates I think ill give it a miss lol.....

[cpgone]

Comments on Elliot Wave and or HS Dent on gold/silver deflation?

[MishuTaste]

I would've said, "I TOLD YOU SO."

[dcanrius]

Alright Peter, buy gold. And silver! do you believe in gold manipulation like GATA?

[gawtmeelk]

I can't believe he spoils the ending to that new Bruce Willis movie 'Surrogates' so casually.

Screw you Schiff! You have created an enemy this day, and my vengeance shall be a bitter thing.

[prac2]

LOL!

[lesrap]

ya ya ya, not trying to say " told you so

' ya right. and why not you have every right to. im curious to see how the next years went.

[sevendayz1980]

one day you'll regret not listening to guys like Peter. His not a broken record... it's our nation that's broken.

[kylextown24]

Is it me or does Peter Schiff sound like a fucking broken record? lol

[cqw9gfo]

It's just you.

[hailgov]

Most viral videos are less than 2 min.

I agree with your vlogs Peter, but I do not have 1 hour+ to watch your bankers video.

The sound bites from CNBC would be better to captivate attention.

[delatroy]

i got that video as a playlist on my page, one of the best videos iv seen on economics - really worth a watch, im sure you can spare an hour ;)

[mandible36]

just finished watching it and it was really good. A lot of it is obvious now with hind-sight and is repetative of other peter schiff vlogs and from crash proof, but there was a lot extra to get out of it as well, atleast from developing a better economic understanding. This, of coarse, does depend on your current knowledge level, but definately worth checking out imho.

[harveybirdmannequin]

A dollar carry trade for a reserve currency? That's a disaster in the happening.

Borrowers like hedge funds and the same banks the Fed is bailing out borrowing worthless USD at 0% (negative, when you count inflation) interest rates only to invest it in foreign markets which in turn makes the USD even more worthless. Vicious cycle? If the Fed raises rates, then it bankrupts the banks and they have to print more. HAHA! Inflation both ways. USA so doomed. Get out of USD.

Run and don't look back!!

[harveybirdmannequin]

I forgot to add that a big difference between the yen and USD carry trade, is that Japan is a major exporting nation and the USA is bankrupted by consumption.

So when the yen is devalued by 0% interest rates and a yen carry trade, it is offset by Japan's exporting capacity. The same obviously cannot be said of the USA. I had not thought of the USD carry trade until Peter brought it up. I don't know what it's going to take for people to realize the USD is worthless. There's nothing left to say.

[rolexx]

What do you mean "kidding" about Krugman? He won the friggin' Nobel Prize. What did Schiff win again?

[banquo60615]

Won the Nobel Prize? You mean the same Nobel Prize won by the jackass who lost billions of dollars for his clients at LTCM (Google it)? Nassim Nicholas Taleb does a nice little expose about the "Nobel" in economics in his book The Black Swan.

In any case, that particular prestige has degenerated considerably since Hayek won it in 1974, into a celebration of, as Taleb has put it, "pseudoscience and phony mathematics."

[banquo60615]

And the awarding of it to a charlatan like Krugman is only the latest evidence of that degeneracy.

[banquo60615]

By the way, by Hayek, I'm referring to Friedrich, not Selma. Selma won the Oscar, which has problems of its own.

[KraljevicPavle]

To be fair it was no better then. They didn't dare give it to an Austrian outright so they made him share it with Gunnar Myrdal, a socialist. Or maybe they decided to throw the Austrians a bone and give it to Hayek after deciding to give it Myrdal first.

[roseagain2]

Thanks for the truth!

[freedominsomalia]

the ending is so self serving

[pirucreek]

I read Krugman, he makes a lot of sense. Hehas a very good chapter on investing.

END THE FED

[banquo60615]

You're kidding about Krugman, right?

[Theman101289]

In the spirit of Schiff I just schooled my Keynesian professor yesterday trying to make me read some Krugman bullsh%t.

I used some of Schiff's anologies ;)

SCHIFF FOR SENATE

END THE FED!!

[Bishop153]

lol, noice!

[harveybirdmannequin]

Krugman is a douche and are all Keynesians. Keynesians openly admit that Keynesian economics has no intention of being a long term viable economic system. They themselves say that in the short term gov't intervention does have benefits but long term it is very damaging and will require ever greater intervention each time. They don't care because "they will all be dead by then". It's a baby boomer mentality and that's why it has so much popularity. The boomers will be dead when it all collapses.

[focus21x]

Peter should invade Yale University, the best there is in/of the small state of Connecticut, and try to educate/wake up the sleepy young socialists just past their original drinking/non-thinking age.

[focus21x]

The fault is not that of the students, it's the teachers, especially teachers unions, and community colleges are just glorified high schools.

[focus21x]

Actually, the average Joe still does not get it. Peter belongs in graduate school, lecturing to advanced students. American undergraduates can't follow him; he is too rational, he demands logical thinking. Our undergraduates prefer computer games, games with fancy characters like Obama and Van Jones. All they are waiting for is more violence, that would really be some entertainment.

[asphyxiafeeling]

If that isn't an ignorant assessment of our countries students i don't know what is. people are people. trust me if peter schiff was speaking to kids at a community college explaining things clearly he'd get applause too. he's not explaining rocket science.

[MaurDL]

oh come on, you can't honestly mean that. have you seen how politics works in this country? most people either don't care about politics or just want to be lied to. look at how divided/partisan the country is and how emotionally invested people are in the red vs. blue, my team vs. your team, mentality.

people are people, yes, but sadly a lot of people are the kind that don't want to have to think too hard about anything and want everything dumbed down in small easily managable bites.

[detroitgreeks]

Peter you always do such a good job explaining economics to the average joe. Thanks man..and good luck!

[Phokey29]

Unfortunately I think it might be too long for most

[numba1stunna4269]

woo hooooo!

[McRocket]

Thanks again Peter.

And thanks very much for explaining the 'carry trade'.

Take care.

[scottvska]

Citizens of Connecticut need to send Mr. Schiff to Washington.

[tesskansas]

I vote for Mr. Schiff to skip Connecticut and go directly to Washington!

[christo930]

If the fed did what Peter wants them to do, won't that wipe him out financially? The price of gold would plummet.

Why does he keep talking about hyperinflation, it's not going to happen. The central bankers around the world is not going to let the world reserve currency collapse. It would impoverish the entire world. They would do anything to stop it. After we loose reserve currency status, we will certainly have problems, but not before then.

[scienterprize]

Isnt that precisely what Peter was talking about. The reason why he invests in gold is because he knows the fed is expanding money supply endlessly by Q.E. If Washington and fed changes their monetary policy, then investment decisions would be adjusted accordingly. Gold will not plumment given the quantity of money injected into the system. Inflation is happening. The world will or will not let the dollar fail, who knows, but soon they will give up on US$ and thats what Peter is warning about.

[christo930]

The process of going off the dollar standard is going to take many years if not decades. The system is way too big, complicated and interrelated in unforeseen ways to make a fast transition. Silver is much more attractive than gold and I think gold is going to collapse, I don't know when though. It will probably rise before it falls, but it's going to fall. Mining companies are planing on quadrupling their output, cost less than 350/ounce to produce, tons are coming in from the public...

[banquo60615]

christo, if you do as Thomas Sowell might suggest and think beyond the Stage One, you might have your answer.

My two word answer: Gold Standard.

[christo930]

I support a gold standard. I don't think it's going to happen any time soon, much to our dismay. I was talking today to a friend about how (before my time) back in 1970 you could buy a nice new car for < 4k. What will that get you today? The worst part is that before we went off the gold standard, money kept it's value pretty well despite a humming economy.

[cool70200]

I agree mr schiff.

This is why I said it before, and I'll say it again.

LOWER TAXES TO %3-4 ACROSS THE BOARD.

Government needs to takes the hit it spending, not businesses and consumers.

create production jobs and get consumption back, get inventories cleared, then they can raise rates.

These guys better hope opec or speculation about china doesnt spark another massive oil rally

and they better hope china doesnt screw them over

sigh

[creten69]

Donde esta mi dinero?En el bano?

[taineasy]

Based on the hints from the G20 today should we be preparing for A FALSE FLAG to increase Obama's popularity rating. I heard Iceland now has WMD's too.

[TiredOldFart]

The dollar carry trade will become more difficult, because soon you'll need a wheel barrow to carry them.

[ciottini]

Hey Mr Schiff I saw your speech at the campaign for liberty at Valley Forge. I have never laughed so much from a political speech and I mean that in a good way. Keep the good work and enthusiasm.

[littlechief0]

mustang607 beat me to it. No 75 minute video is going viral. Thats about 73 minutes to long for the average internet attention span. I don't know if its even possible to edit it down without losing the punch, but it must be done to get it to the masses.

[skliros]

peter, can you expose some of the things the fed is doing?

did you watch grayson questioning the fed lawyer?

/watch?v=v1h2c3Hkf7o

[nilesmc]

Thanks for posting the 2006 Mortgage Banker's Speech in it's entirety. Your vids are funnier than 95% of the horses**t on Comedy Central.

[Atoyota]

I started to watch it, but didn't finish...

I'll go back and take another look.

[mustang607]

That video from 2006 is long but excellent. If someone could edit it down, it could go viral.

[jcNOVA88]

Parts of that speech already have

[diaverde09]

Peter should try illustrating his videos like TF00t and Southern Avenger. I think his videos would get more well-deserved attention.

[MyHeadsOutOfTheSand]

Peter - As much as I love your Mortgage Bankers' presentation there's very little chance of an hour-long vid going viral, no matter how good it is.

The "Peter Schiff Was Right" video, on the other hand, is EXACTLY the type of MTV attention span video that can explode. Bring that one back to people's attention and it will spread like wildfire, especially in CT.

[nonantianarchist]

Everyone knows Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do with the crisis. Chris Dodd said so! Who is more objective and unbiased than the guy who got millions in campaign contributions from Fannie and Freddie, I ask you?

[yytrert]

There's no crisis, Bush said there was no recession, this is just a market correction

[Mauhadeeb28]

A correction of such magnitude could indeed be considered a crisis. It will, if the market is left alone, in time correct itself, but a lot of citizens will be put through very hard times for years. That would definitely be a crisis. It is awful that it is the only plausible outcome. Better to do it now than to keep pushing it off for another day. That only compounds problem, enlarging the correction's magnitude and scope.

[Annihilate3275]

great vid!

[pedroquintero]

dude, you're my freakin hero!

[nonantianarchist]

Peter, what sort of insanity are you peddling? Looking to people who accurately predicted the crisis for solutions? Bah! We need to listen to geniuses like Mike Norman. After all, the best person to give advice on any crisis is the one that denied its existence. Duh! I mean, come on, the government should like, print a trillion and spend it! THAT'll save the economy.

[haveabeer123]

that´s exactly what Mike Norman says... why borrow when you can print... that guy is a sinking turd...

[traynickel]

Schiff not holding any punches, Dodd will bow out using the "Ohh I'm too sick from Cancer" scheme because he knows his time is up......Don't stop Peter, "Whoop That Trick"

[TheLiberalssuckdick]

what does that mean for the Peso?

Mexico is going to be more fucked then it is then.

[PumpkinJoe999]

New Peso! I wonder if that was an extremely clever joke because the peso is actually traded as MXN (mexican peso nuevo) or new peso, which is pretty much just the old peso (MXP) with zeros cut off because the country debased it's currency so much.

[nonantianarchist]

Okay, seriously, if you post just to say that you got in the first post, you make an ass of yourself.

[korrdxl]

So be it.