In sports, particularly basketball, the players with the best stats usually have the record for the most shots missed. To look for someone to be correct all of the time is ludicrous. I will gladly take someone's advice (Prechter) who is correct at least at 40 to 50% of the time. especially if I have no idea of what I am doing. Great counterpoint video, I have increased my protection (calls) on my short positions as a result of this video.
@nocsm1 Thanks for the comment. I do have to stress that I have to distance myself from any financial decisions taken by anyone who has watched it... (don't want to get into trouble with financial regulators).
But I am glad that this video has provided you with an alternative idea for consideration to Prechter's... even if I am wrong... it is never good to have 1 single dogmatic view out there.
Watch the monthly chart of the dollar index. It´s been bearish since the begining of the 80's. The markets turn down in 2008 and the FED embarks on the hugest monetary expansion of world history. But the dollar index stops making new lows.
Why? Because the flow of credit pay-offs grows in relation with the total oustanding debt. This flow is compensated with new borrowings (new money). But if people stop borrowing, this flow is to big to offset, even for the Fed. It´s simple accounting
@mpolavieja "the dollar index stops making new lows." True, and I can count the dollar as having bottomed, however based on those same monthly charts the dollar can still be counted as being in a downtrend. So far the rallies have yet to retrace more than 23.6% of the decline from 1985 and less than 38% from '02 highs. Connecting the '85 and '02 peaks that trendline is currently still above 96 (15%+ above where we are now). Could it be deflation? Yes. But that was RP's call for '87 in too.
@T1systems FWIW, another often ignored fact, the dollar rallied 50% in the 1990's. The stock market rallied 2400% basis the NDX and 350% basis the SPX over that stretch. Although there is an obvious counter trend relationship between the dollar and stocks now, there is no guarantee how long that will last.
@T1systems The issue I wanted to point out is during 2008 and 2009 the Fed has embarked on the hugest monetary (credit) expansion in world history, and the dollar stopped making new lows.
RP thought that in 1987, in 1998, in 2000 the credit bubble did finally come to an end. He´s been consistently wrong in calling the end of the credit bubble, but I think he is right when he says that we are on the biggest credit bubble of history.
@T1systems. Government could decide to change the current credit-money system to a pure fiat-money system. If this is the case, then we will obviusly have deflation. It´s not possible to know what´s going to happen, we only have probabilities.
When debtors are mainly the richest, is more probable that politicians "decide" to print money without any backing at all (Zimbawe, Weimar...) but when most people are debtors and the richest are creditors, Deflation is more likely.
@mpolavieja "when most people are debtors and the richest are creditors, Deflation is more likely." That makes sense, but "the richest" in the US are not necessarily the creditors. So much of the private debt has been repackaged and sold off by the likes of Goldman Sacs, and the public debt has been sold to China. Good points you make. In Prechter's optimum scenario the Dow will go to 40. Is this what the PTB wants? I don't know, maybe they do so they can buy what they don't have yet cheap.
@T1systems. Apart from foreign creditors, I think that from a legal point of view the main creditors are the banks, including the Fed. This is a very old story where the usurers let the people borrow to later seize their assets. Most people are so heavily indebetd that their particular "Net Asset Value" is 0 or negative, so almost nothing left to "steal" through inflation.
Prechter might be right or wrong on his price prediction. But I think he is right on depicting the current situation.
@mpolavieja. Regarding Prechter predictions I agree with him that gold is the best possible money you can measure anything with. So if the Dow Jones has declined an 80% since 2000 top, and that´s is a real correction because it´s real money, then maybe we could be almost done with the bear market.
The only thing that makes me think again that bear market is far from being done is the world´s monstruous amount of outstanding debt.
@T1systems. Well, few people win I guess... Just a few usurers (as always). But going back to Elliott theory, which I find very interesting (but very unpractical for trading), the entire humankind is suposed to win in the process. It seems that we are not interested in a steady and measured progress, we need a premium (progressing faster than we really can afford). This strategy is not necessarily bad in the long term, even if in the meantime we have to suffer stepbacks.
@mpolavieja I think short term application of Elliott *patterns* (not so much "theory") can be a practical trading tool. Keep in mind Prechter 1984 (contest win (+444% in 4 months ) - 1987 called turn after turn in the Dow. To your larger point Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Growth patterns look at "universal growth". In other words not only are set backs good for the long time progress of mankind, but they are a safeguard for the planet. IOW, man may self destruct for the greater good of the
@T1systems entire ecosystem/planet. I guess my thought about "who wins" goes back to your suggestion that deflation is engineered for the benefit of the rich. IOW, a deflation that brings the Dow down to 40 kills the goose that lays the golden eggs (the middle class/working class). Anyway, their is an ancient Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times". These are interesting times indeed. Most folks who can read this have been far luckier than they can imagine (so far....).
@T1systems. Of course, being honest I should say that it´s very unpractical for me. Because I haven´t managed to use it succesfully on my trading, or maybe it´s just that I feel more comfortable with other methodology. But EW is useful for me to get a realistic idea of what to expect on the financial markets. In that sense, thanks to EW and Robert Prechter, I have to say that the current crisis is not a surprise to me at all, it´s just a realistic scenario that has occured.
@mpolavieja. I tend to think that deflation is more a consequence of the credit bubble and that the usurers (who are experts in trading with money) are the few people that know how to take advantage of it. When we get to the point where most middleclass individuals´ NAV is =<0 they are not productive anymore, the golden eggs goose is "dry".
Regarding dow at 40 or 1000 (whatever), after deflation those 40, 400 or 1000 points are more valuable (the same way that now 10.000 is inflated).
@mpolavieja Of course, but Dow 40 (the terminus of the 4th wave of lesser degree and the "best" target according the Prechter's scenario) isn't just going to mean cheap stocks. It means the end of the financial system. It means the end of most western governments, banks, corporations, etc. Dow 40 isn't just a re-valuation, it's the end of this portion of history.
@T1systems. I didin´t know he said Dow 40, i thought he said just below 1.000. Anyways, a very low stock market could drive us to a financial armaggedon, but not necessarely. The great depression was very bad, but the financial system stayed quite the same.
Japan stock market is a fraction from what it was and they are still one of the most powerful economies... I don´t desagree with you, but i think it´s also possible to have very low stock market prices without financial armgeddon.
@mpolavieja. The great depression or the post south sea depression were not strong enogh to cause a financial meltdown ¿don´t you think?. I can only think of the dark ages after the fall of the roman empire as a real financial meltdown and a idle state of progress. Trade and commerce plummeted, but nevertheless humankind didn´t get back to the neolithic. I think we could have dow @ 40 and at the same time having computers 100 times more powerful than today.
@mpolavieja "I think we could have dow @ 40 and at the same time having computers 100 times more powerful than today." Let's assume the dollar triples, so value Dow 40 @ 120. About 1% of where it is now. MSFT @ 24 x .01 is .24. If most of the world has computers 100 times more powerful than today and most of us still have internet access can you imagine MSFT @.24? IBM @ 1.27? XOM @ .59? People are making houses and CAT is at .68? No. I don't think so.
@mpolavieja I do imagine a "deflation" that is more prosperous. Computers and solar panel and batteries 100 times more efficient than today. Oil companies go belly up. Major upheaval ensues, but ultimately it leads to much better times. But at Dow 40 I see anarchy, governments and services disintegrate, maybe not the dark ages. But maybe a world more like Kabul and less like Malibu CA or Greenwich CT or Barcelona Spain.
@mpolavieja 1000 is for "3 of C". "Terminus of previous 4th wave low" is 40. It was on his front page target for years. It's in his books. My own charts point lower too. And I'm not saying 40 is impossible. I am saying Dow 40 is REALLY bad news and I prefer the drawn out bear. The great depression was an 89% decline? Dow 40 is a 99%+ decline even allowing for the dollar to triple.
@T1systems Well, you might be right depending on the correction´s degree. With Dow @40 is fairly possible things would get as you depict.. Anyways I think is very difficult to foresee now if we are heading to 1000, 400 or 40, even suposing that we are "99% accurate" on our wave count. It´s way too early. But of course it´s not a discardable scenario.
@mpolavieja Just to be clear, *I* am not predicting Dow 40. That number is RP's (40-400, the 1929-1932 "4th wave" range where 40 is the "terminus"). That the "4th wave" range is 1000% is an issue for me from an Elliott POV: 4th waves tend to be flat, complex, sideways patterns. "depending on the correction´s degree." Since 1987 this has been the question about Prechter's calls. Obviously he got the degree of that correction wrong. Is he off by 1 or 2 degrees of scale here too?
@T1systems. I don´t know, i am not very experienced counting waves. And even agreeing RP about the degree, for me is also an issue expecting a 4th wave to be as steep as he suggests.
Only the size of the credit bubble makes me think that he could be right.
@T1systems. The target that seems more probable to me is 1987 lows first and the 70's low second. But as I said, I am not very experienced counting waves.
@mpolavieja From a pure proportional point of view the 1970's lows make some sense. Part of my issue here is that there are a lot of people copying Prechter's long term count. Many of them don't actually know his target or have not considered the implications of it. "The size of the bubble" can be unwound fast and sharp or drawn out over time. I don't know which will happen. I will keep an open mind and watch for clues. Prechter made up his mind Oct 22 1987 and has not changed it since.
@T1systems. I think Robert Precther, despite being wrong many times (like everyone else) is honest with his advising. It seems that what he says is what he really believes. Regarding his opinion since 1987.... I wonder how much money he has lost :-S
@mpolavieja I like Prechter personally. I appreciate his demeanor and what he did for Elliott. The disconnect comes where he touts how "tough minded" he is. Being short from NASDAQ 400 through 4000+ isn't being "tough". It's just being wrong. When the market proves me wrong I like to "reboot" my perspective: look at the market fresh from both sides. Being monolithically bullish or bearish is like playing chess and not trying to figure out what the other guy is trying to do.
@T1systems. Yes he has been wrong on his advise to traders consistently since 1987, I agree. But he has been right on his advise to average investor since 2000 recommending to stay in cash.
Regarding DEFLATION. Robert Prechter preditcts deflation not only because of the wave pattern, but because an implosion of the credit bubble.
This is pure accounting principles and surprisingly not all the austrian economist understand this (except professor Fekete and a few more). Every single dollar that is created from credit (not out of thin air, which is very different) is inflationist when it´s created, but when the credit is paid back, that dollar dissapears, which is deflation
interesting views, but my money is still on prechter's analysis. He is a trading champion. Did you call the lows in March 09 within the week like he did? Also, did you call the April 2010 top essentially to the day like he did? Prechter's views maybe seem bizzarre but he's been right for the last 10 years. Look at the bond market man, it is currently pricing in HISTORIC DEFLATION. I also find it very ironic that you are using the technical analysis that Prechter invented to disagree w/ him?
@philolson321 Correction: Prechter didn't invent it... he re-published it. It's Elliott Wave Theory (named after R.N Elliott) not Prechter Wave Theory.
I have to say you need to be carefull with interpreting his success rate. As I state in the video I did not call he march low (as I was only just starting to learn Tech. analysis at the time) and I didn't call the April high.
But you are overlooking all the false calls he had leading up to the april high.
@Andronichuk What about March 2009 lows? Robert Prechter did not, repeat did not predict them. Look at his you tubes! He remained bearish until April - May 2009 and then changed to bull. All he said in February 2009 is "to take some money off the table and cover shorts". He did not say buy long, He continued back then "I maintain my bearish outlook".
@philolson321 Ie: he said the Jan high was going to be the top after we saw some heavy selling.... but we go higher down the road.
I don't disagree with him completely... but I do not think people should buy into his "Guru" status so easily but asses him critically... after all, it makes no difference to me what you do with your money.
But his record as a whole does have some major holes in it, either way... he still provides an interesting analysis.
@Andronichuk "some major holes" come on Andronichuk stop being politically correct. Robert Prechter at best is the worst broken clock ever, at worst he is a crook!
@philolson321 "Also, did you call the April 2010 top essentially to the day like he did?" Actually yes! See my April 25th video (called for a peak @ 1222-1223) and my May 10th video (called 1175 on the 1173.50 high and also 1030 for the next lows which were 1040, 1040, 1010). Also on last Sunday (Aug 8) I gave you all RP's calls two days in advance as well as Crude's peak too....
@philolson321 I can't give Prechter credit for "calling" the April peak. He was "100% short in late August '09 from S&P 1030 or so. The S&P went against him almost 200 points (that's nearly $10K on a single e-mini: enough to wipe out a small trader). RP was also "200% and 200%+ short" well below the 1220 peak....
@philolson321 Prechter Invented Elliot Wave Principal? You must have been smoking something. Advil , Nurofen, all are brands they have an active ingrediant I B Profen - they are I B Profen.
This is the probl0em on the net, all idiots, ignorant , mentally sick, siccos can post anywhere hiding behind anonimity. "but my money is still on prechter's analysis." you must be drunk?
What Robert Prechter was saying after the crash in 1987 : Grand Ctcle 70 years, bear market, deflation, defaults, lose of I O Y 's and the bla bla. It is exactly what he is saying today 08/2010. 23 years diferance and the same very things he is saying.
The diferance: DOW was 1730 after crash, now it is 10,600.
All these sotio economics "waves" are his own imaginations, he is telling you that his 100 ANALysts are doing research on those things. It is worst than Arch Crowfords' astrology.
I swear to God, I saw the TV interview of Robert Prechter , imediatelly after the October 1987 crash. Iy was on a major TV network. He admitted that he screwed up and could not predict the crash. His excuse was that "he thought the bullmarket will continue until DOW 3900 and then the super grand cycle bear market collapse will happen".
It was a disgrace, he lost 90% of his subscribers. I am sure posters will approve of my recollection!
I will try to give you the link for the Article on Precter being a crook here. But if you go to my id to may favorite link (site) it is there.
Go to the homepage of dailymarkets. Search for an author - wolinsky. A list of articles will apear. The date is July 14th and the Article name is Dow 1000?
@UPSIPO It is looking good for a bearish return... we need to see Friday' lows taken out for some confidence in the move. Hopefully a nice trade out of it around the corner :)
You do not say anything, if anything , you are saying this week. the bear will be back. Well guess what? Markets will go up sharply today! You might as well talk about what will happen next week, next day , than in the next decade, or next year, or what happened in the last 300 years.
Lets make it clear, if you do not give any short term prediction, which will not produce any money, nobody is going to watch your video "for entertainment purposes", and eventually you will disapear.
@PrechterRobert This video has had over 400 views in just less than 2 days. I think there is enough interest out there to discuss this, especially seeing as it has also managed to rack up 50 comments and an internal debate... which was exactly the purpose of it.
I do make shorter term analysis and predictions, some materialise, some don’t. Such is the world of market analysis and trading, especially for someone so new to it (myself).
@PrechterRobert May I also state that it would be outright stupidity for me to say “This video is for the purposes of financial advice”... anything other than “educational” or “entertainment” would risk me getting a slap on the wrist from the Financial Regulatory Authorities.... and most people seem to understand this.
@optionsupdate Well my personal view is that most people are "uncertain"... what they are however aware of is that the economy is in trouble and the world is changing. So I think a sideways drift on a back of uncertainty and a period of re-alignment could fit well with a 10+ year sideways drift following Tech bubble.
this generation has been described as a bubble bubble. bubbles used to only occur once in a lifetime, because once you were hit, you were cautious for the rest of your life, but your kids and grandkids don't feel that same pain.
our generation has seen bubble after bubble. so in one sense our bubble mania is the bubble itself.
further to my comment, i personally think it will be a contracting triangle... we finish the D by march 2011 then going into 2012 we do the E which will end above 666 on the SP500... then we see an massive inflation based run for the next decade.
@tradeyourwayout I am leaning towards an expanding triangle... will probably post another video looking at the interior patters of the whole thing. But if you look at what I labeled wave A and C... there is a healthy 161.8% relationship between the two.
@Andronichuk for this reason i believe a contracting because of this 161.8% relationship. usually you get no fib relationships in expanding triangles, but rather a contracting. so we have a small A, a bigger B and then a slightly bigger C which is still valid provided the D doesn't become bigger than the C. On the daily structure, i think we are very close to a top in the D leg & don't think it will take the high out of 2007 - hence i lean more toward contracting - but expanding is very possible
@Andronichuk now that we know we are dealing with a triangle, we can say the top at 2000 was a wave 3 (not wave 5) because triangles only appear as wave 4s and B waves... hence we should have one last bull run which i think will be the 5th wave inflation run. Then i think the pretcher doom will come. the next cycle top points to around 2023ish
@Andronichuk I agree with the broad strokes of your long term count, but I don't think we can predict the details 5-10+ years out within a corrective wave. The S&P decline off the year 2K peak counts as a regular flat. As such it could be an abc of A in a larger flat, a double flat, an expanding or contracting triangle, etc. How do we know at this point? The fact that it *is* a flat so far and that does tell us the correction *should* be sideways.
@T1systems I posted similar counts on July 30, April 25 and March 15. And as I've said, I even pushed it in front of Prechter himself, in a more anticipatory form, circa the early 1990's. Could Prechter be right? Yes. But I think the lesson is look as far ahead as you like, but take the market one step at a time and keep an open mind. Prechter stayed short for dozens of years through countless "abc" declines. I can't imagine he would of done that without his preconceived long term count.
bingo buddy, i think you got it right with your alternate view. the only question is... are we dealing with an expanding triangle, meaning we see a new high soon OR will it be a contracting... btw i posted the expanding view a long time back
You should give EWI credit for just urging caution and safety. If you interpretation is correct, then within 5 years (a-c time extension to c-e) from now we should see a good buying opportunity below the march lows.
If they're correct, we're into great depression 2; and people's retirements will be devastated. i.e. primarily buy and hold mom and pop types.
We have to see how deep this wave c as per your count or wave 3 as per their count turns out before trying to make long term moves.
@skippy3111 Yeah I would agree 100%. A lot can happen between now and 3 months from now... if we do get one more leg down (short term) seeing how deep it is will be very important. I am not saying Prechter is wrong (after all I am just a student, not exactly credible financial expert here) but I am simply sceptical.
@Andronichuk markets are very complex with many variables. the wave count is just one way to check the pulse of the market. No one has a crystal ball.
understand that EWP is not primarily a market forecasting tool, though this new rush of EW analysts all believe that's what it is. Its a description of how markets move, and that has some intrinsic forecasting value.
Just because one can spell out a particular, pattern doesn't mean the market needs to obey your count. Prechter's or Your's.
@skippy3111 OK. Let's give him credit. June 1993, NASDAQ 100 @ 370 EWT says "Sell short across the board, except precious metals." and "Prepare for depression...." Even with the tech crash you are down 700%+ right now in the NDX from there, you would not of bought any real estate in the 1990's, you also would have been short from from late 2002 (Dow 8200). If "Mom and Pop" have followed RP they are already broke and homeless.
@T1systems i've never heard him say "go short" on any media outlet. Do you have a source for that quote? When he does advise to go short (in smaller interviews or publications) he's very cautious about it. he's even explained why; going short is very risky, but holding cash just means a missed opportunity.
he's the first to admit he's not right 100% of the time, and no-one else is either.
mom and pops don't go short the market. they go long blue chips with no idea what it is or why its up
@skippy3111 His newsletter. It's an EXACT quote. Hey no one is 100% right, but he was mostly short from the early 1990's through year 2K and short from 2002 through early 2009. Short again @ Dow 9700 late 2009 and "200% short" at various times since. I am not passing judgment, but these are facts quoted from the EWT (Elliott Wave Theorist) itself and EWFF (EW Financial Forecast (he changed names)). I find it interesting how may people are Prechter experts never seeing his writings.
@T1systems I've only followed him for the past year. And I do read EWT and EWFF. Right now they say hold cash and cash equivalencies, experienced traders can go short or go long the VIX.
He could have been saying something different in 1993. But I've heard him specifically say that since his 1978 call he's very cautious of telling people to short markets or go long markets, and he's more comfortable telling people to hold cash when times are uncertain.
@T1systems My mistake. "Cash or Short fund" for individual investors. They've not reccomended going short on their own.
Also if you'd care to read past the summary and outlook table, in the bottom line, the only statement reccomending any action "Short-term U.S. Treasury bill, while still sporting a negligible yield, remain the best and safest place for investment portfolios."
Also watch any Prechter interview on CNBC or bloomberg. He never tells anyone to go out and short the market.
@skippy3111 Buying say a short ETF (aka Exchange Traded ***Fund***) is not "going short on your own"? Let's say you bought TZA (a short *fund*) when RP suggested doing so late October 2009. You would be down over 64% on the April peak. That doesn't include his "200% short" and "beyond 200% short" for traders in January. TZA is a small cap short ETF (FUND) . He suggests small caps are the most vulnerable. Circa 1993-94: "hold short / add to shorts" for ALL investors and traders.
@T1systems p256 of conquer the crash "if you are so inclined, speculate conservatively in anticipation of a declining stock market"
I challenge you to go out and show me a clip where he's talking to a mass audience where he tells everyone to go out and short the market. Every EWI/RP publication I've read and interview I've seen has reccomended to hold cash, and under says you may speculate for the downside if you wish.
Now tell me, what were you calling for in October 07 and March 09?
@T1systems by and large the vast majority of their advice has been to hold cash and equivalents in secure banks, and says you may speculate if you wish. If you take that to mean go out and short the market without a stop loss then its your fault for ignoring the advice that they put their weight behind and jumping on the speculative side that they didn't push with a high degree of confidence.
@T1systems And since 2000 if you were holding 3 month T bills as he'd reccomended in conquer the crash you'd be up 30% versus down 19% if you were in the S&P.
@skippy3111 So you are saying ignore his newsletter? How convenient! If the short ETF trade works you can say follow my newsletter. If the book works out, but the ETF loses you can say see I was right in my book! Heads Bob wins, tails Bob wins! I like it. Can you be my PR guy too??! Anyway your 30% profit in the last ten years doesn't cover the 1000%+++ loss being short the NDX from 1993-2000. Nice try though!
@T1systems You're obsessed with the fact that they've said you may short the market but their overwhelming advice has been to hold cash equivalents. I think you're the one who's cherry picking.
I can't comment on the 1993 call, because I didn't follow them back then, and I don't know when they told people to cover shorts if they ever did.
Though I highly doubt that reccomended to short the market, versus telling people to hold cash in anticipation of a falling stock market.
@T1systems "HOLD CASH!!, ps you may conservatively speculate" is not grounds for you to keep whining about a bad speculative call. Their overwhelming call has been for safety
And those two words in the article don't count because 99% of their advice has been hold cash.
This is just going to go back and forth. Lets just wait it out till we're out of summer doldrums. If you think we're about to embark on a great bull market, I dare you to go long and see how that works out for you.
@skippy3111 "I've only followed him for the past year." He's suggested readers be short most of the time since 1993. I'm looking at the proof. Believe what you want. The idea that you MUST ignore selective advise, like that on front page of his monthly newsletter, with the benefit of hindsight, is foolish. How would Conquer the Crash (2002) have helped you avoid his "a bad speculative call" of being short from 1993-2000 and not buying real estate through the 90's?
@T1systems 1st, you're going to have to show me some source to state what you're saying is true about 1993. Especially going short versus holding cash, and the degree to which he recommended each position. I can't find any source to say anything on the matter for or against your claim.
2nd, Can you agree that hold cash vs go short are vastly different recommendations?
3rd, Can you agree that the degree to which you make each recommendation makes a world of difference?
@skippy3111 If I may just chip in my 5 cents into this debate you two are having (healthy thing to be doin) :)
I have a copy of the Elliott Wave Theorist for October 1987.. during that massive crash. On October 15th he states: "traders/investors should make a move to 50% long any time the Dow is below 2360 and 100% long any time the Dow falls below 2299." And then goes on to say place a stop at 2170.
@skippy3111 The next issue on October 22 seems to suggest that most people broke even because the market openedso close to the stoploss level... before falling like a stone to 1750.
I think that Prechter has had some good ideas and analysis.... but it just seems to me that there is a hell of a lot of marketing and public relations efforts with his work.... and if I am not mistaken he actually stated that he personally doesn't even trade.
@T1systems Crap!!! Prechter lost more money than anybody for his subscribers. In 1987 he screwed up big big time. He lost 90% of his subscribers. By the way, if you will not block everybody on your site, you might have this conversation on your site, and will not need to come here.
@UPSIPO Were you a subscriber in 1987? Were you trading? I was. Made money. RP gets a bad rap for the 1987 call largely due to the attacks on WTW by Rukeyser. RP was short around Dow 2700. He did have a buy and a stop in place on Black Monday around 2200? But only an idiot would have bought it there. Moreover, look at the charts. The market ran right through RP's 2200, but Black Monday was a HUGE buying opportunity after all. So: he called the top (2700) and he called the buy (time wise).
@T1systems Yes I was in the New York area in 1987 crash! I was young and I was reading his stuff! I was following him (not a subscriber). I completely disagree with you! Robert prechter was a rising star until the 1987 crash. From that time he collapsed. He made 2 big big errors,
1) He admited that he did not predict the October crash at 2700.
2) He remained super bearish after the crash, with the same "grand cycle bearish crap that he spreads today", he missed on the biggest bull market
@UPSIPO "I was following him (not a subscriber)." You were watching Wall Street Week on PBS right? Sigh... No, he didn't call the crash. He WAS short/bearish near 2700. He predicted a bottom near 2200. Look at the charts. It was not a bad call! It's ironic, even with hindsight, people say it was. 1993-2000, 2002-whatever: those were BAD calls. BTW, RP is calling for DJI 40 (not 1000).
@T1systems I believe Prechter is calling for S&P 400. The "Dow 1000" is the name of the article that Jacob Wilinsky wrote about Prechter. I did not say Prechter is predicting Dow 1000, Althou I think he is predicting a rediculously low DOW
@T1systems To anyone who has daily data in 1987 you might want to revisit that chart. You can see RP was looking for a test of the prev 4th (2180) & 1.618 x A, but the market went right to the next larger degree 4th (1730) and 4.23 x A (in one day!). Also, this reminds me of research I did then. A 38.2% retracement from the 1932 low-1987 peak is about 1710. Closing low was 1738. Also the A/C 4.236 sets a precedent for the current "C" to hit RP's Dow 40 target. 1987, an interesting chart.
@T1systemsI do not remember what channel. All I remember after this very important interview with Robert Prechter back in 1987 - the Investors Daily the major financial newspaper at the time - crucified Robert Prechter, everybody was disapointed, and he simply disapeared for years. Everybody thought he is finished. I am sure he is a crook. He could have saved himself - but he continued his BS about grand cycle bear market while market continued to climb up after crash missing the bull market
@UPSIPO This is part of what's wrong with the world: pseudo voodoo knowledge and information. Earlier discussion with a guy who tries to argue what's in a newsletter I'm holding in my hand which he's never seen. Your opinion about Prechter is based on a TV show (you can't remember which) and something some journalist (don't remember who?) said in some paper and you try to pass it off as independent thought. You admit, you never read what Prechter said in EWT circa '87...
@T1systems My dear sir! I am not going to debate with you what happened in 1987. I have nothing else to add. Lets take the last 2 years ONLY. I WAS NOT Prechter Subscriber! I DID NOT READ THE JUNK HE WROTE. Nut I followed each and every very You Tube which he published! While what he wrote can be maybe interpreted by people like you, what he said on TV can not, repeat can not be debated! He screwed up all the way, the only score was with the dollar lat 2009.
@T1systems OK. Have I offended anybody? I am still doubtfull about thi statement, I want to be convinced I am wrong, and that Elliot wave can count forward without making 10 corrections on the way, and revizing counts all the time. I agree I said "This Elliot Wave is pure bullshit. One can always count backword, but never forward." , it was because of our "friend" Robert Prechter. He might have done the most damage to this theory.
@Andronichuk - Research is Bob precther's primary business, so what wrong with him marketing it? and tell me one research company that doesn't markets it self. Your analysis is just based on waves, Bob precther research is a combination of waves and socioeconomics, without socioeconomics wave theories seem useless. you must include some economic reasoning behind your wave analysis - otherwise anyone can make patters out of these waves...cheers
@ednan9 Thanks for the comment ednan. But I do include economic reasoning. My main scepticism of the "30s style deflation" bob is calling for is because the completely opposite extremes of monetary policy now compared to then.
I understand his idea of "socionomics"... but keep in mind this is another theory he is putting together. You cannot flat out justify one theory with another one which is even younger and less perfected.
@ednan9 The other problem is of course that socionomics is based on the wave principle.... so he is justifying the wave principle, with a social study based on the wave principle....
@ednan9 Nothing wrong with marketing at all, but Prechter's business is not "research". It is market timing and forecasting. Who says? EWI. Go to their site and see their info page. In the 1st paragraph about RP the words "forecasting" and "timing" are used 7 times. The issue about marketing is that they are using his "timer of the year" awards and two recent good calls and ignoring his 1993-2000, 2002-2007 periods where he was 100% wrong.
@T1systems agree! Read my link to the article talking abot him. You will freak out. And CNBC is colaborating with this con. CNBC said about Robert Prechter - "the man who predicted March 2009 lows". Robert Prechter did not predict any March 2009 lows! He just said in 02/2009 "time to take some money of the table, time to cover shorts". He remain bearich until 04/2009 or so and only after the market turned he became bullish, until 08/2009, then he became bearish again. In 11/2009 he short
@skippy3111 1) I will sell you one of my 1993 EWT. They are "collectors items" and as such very expensive. Make me an offer. Posting a copy would be a copyright infringement. 2) Yes, different, but he suggests BOTH. 3) He says "Cash or Short Fund". The idea that we need to read his book to interpret that is absurd. Here's the rub: RP was short from 2002-2009 and you claim he called the top. Well, if your ALWAYS short of course you will catch the tops....
@T1systems Also, you can't have it both ways. I.e. You tout that he called the '07 top and the '09 bottom, but the '10 60%+ loss in small cap short funds doesn't count because he suggests "caution" and also suggests cash. Read Martin Schwartz's "Pit Bull". He's good friends with RP, but he documents Prechter's bearish calls from 1987 through the 1990's. Prechter's book EWP cites 2700/3700 as probable tops and year 2003 as the probable major (55 year) cycle low.
@T1systems And I'm not saying you need to read the book. You just need to read two lines below in the summary. Or the whole article. Where it says the safest place is cash or cash equivalencies.
The conversation is simple. A: I think you should hold cash.
B: Why?
A: Because I think the market's going to tank.
B: So I should short the market.
A: Well I'm not that certain, just be safe and hold cash.
B: But if its going to go down then I should short.
@skippy3111 One last bit of Prechter history. He originally rose to fame on a strong marketing push using his 1st place finish in a real money option trading contest. He may also have been named "timer of the year" a few times. In short, it was his timing ability, not his "hold cash" advise that propelled him to the top. We owe Prechter a lot for bringing EW into the light. That doesn't mean we can't see his performance as a timer from 1987-2010 for what it is.
@T1systems I'm not making you an offer, that's preposterous. That's an even bigger copyright infringement.
But lets say what you're saying is true*. And I'll grant you those were bad calls. Now does it make you a better practitioner to look at what he's saying today and to try to find any count alternative to that? That seems to be what you're doing. You'd be much better off to ignore what he says all together.
*not that I'm convinced because the degree to which each call is wildly different.
@skippy3111 Not at all. I can sell the original letter, just like you can sell a used book. Happens legally everyday 1,000's of times. I am not making a call to be different than RP, but if the market goes through a "perfect" target by 500%+ shouldn't we look critically at our logic? Also, as I've credited many times, the EW flat A=C and/or A x 1.618 = C probabilities are Prechter's! IOW, I am using RP's book and his rules to make a case for a flat vs crash. Have you read EWP? I bet no.
@T1systems Oh no, I've read the book, and you're saying alternation. I'm working on my second reading right now.
You're only looking at the EW evidence. EW doesn't take into account the atrocious state of our global debt and in whose hands it is. We can avoid a crash is if the US, EU and now China were to buy out all their bad debt, and I don't believe that's possible, politically or practically.
Bernanke is already losing support from the other governors with his helicopter tactics.
@skippy3111 "You're only looking at the EW evidence." Yes! Indeed this is one of RP's mantras: the EW pattern is a precursor to news and fundamentals. "I've read the book" and "you're saying alternation". No. Explained multiple times in my videos. Ratio Analysis, page 115 and Flats page 35-39. I'm really done. RP may be right, but given his recent margins of error (up to and over 1000%) doesn't it make sense to think for ourselves and at least assume alternatives are possible?
@T1systems "EW pattern is a precursor to news and fundamentals", that's not true. He says social mood is the precursor. The markets may or may not always indicate social mood, but its still the best tool we have to read it. EWT '09. A valid EW count is only a probabilistic path that the market may take.
There are other indicators of social mood that you need to find agreement with your count in, sentiment indicators, dividend yields, stock to book value ratios, debt.
@T1systems Also, you only need to satisfy EW rules to have a valid count. Guidelines just help you determine a probablistic path. EW rules one their own allow for a lot of quantitavie variablility.
Even if you have a count that satisfies 90% of guidlines, it can still play out differently on the flip side a count with only 10% guidelines can still be what plays out.
@T1systems We're 3-4 months away from having evidence if we're in P3 down or if we're to resume D up as max's video sayswe'll know soon enough. There's nothing to gain by arguing Prechter's record endlessly.
When I read his reccomendations. My take away is still hold cash, or speculate at your own risk.
If you find a way to take "safest place is t-bills" to trump "Cash or Short fund", and then for it to only mean short fund, then you deserve to lose your money.
@T1systems And I agree with him, that's exactly my point. The only one in the Fed trying to avert deflation is Bernanke through printing money, which is the political side. Even if he was allowed to do as he wanted, he's not going to succeed because the debt mountain in front of him is massive, which was the practical part I was talking about.
Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Ron Paul, a lot of the Austrian school economists very firmly in the inflation camp and Prechter, the lone ranger calling for deflation.
Now let's see....what often happens when too many people get on one side of a trade?
@wizardofounce Not really. Inflationists are still still a minority in a global perspective. The vast majority believe we're out of the recession and everything is hunky dory.
@wizardofounce I agree that when most people get on the side of a trade they are usually wrong... but even prechter himself hasn't got a great track rechord of late in comparison to some of these guys. He has been bearish on gold since forever whilst post of these guys made a killing....
But I wouldn't say these guys are the mainstream, they are not convinced with a full scale economic recovery which would fit with my wave "e" crash scenario in the future.
If the government quits buying stocks I think Bob Prector could be right. Now days it is just a fraud market, the stock market died back in the late 1980's. Great analysis, thanks for sharing.
Very good video. Prechtar is the most over rated analyst. The media chery picks his picks. Not only is he wrong most of the time I find him to be a liar and twists what he had states. He sounds like a conman\politician. Agree, long term EWT an charts are useless - I think because the y-axis value changes. To that point a chart after 1972 is valid as the Y axis was a fiat currency. Where-as prior, it was backed by gold. Mixing the y-axis values on the same chart is useless.
@UPSIPO Thanks, Would really like to see EWT post 1972 only. As well as videos which show the truth about Prechter - how he is as right much as a broken clock.
@Andronichuk How dare you insult me! You guys don't understand that I can't allways figure the Social Mood arround. When people are bullish TV brings me on - to boost ratings. You don't understant all those TV stations are co-conspiritors, my associates. Do not you understand we are bloofing you.
Wait a minute! I feel like laughing? Why? I did not do weed? The urge is getting stronger! HA Ha ha ha ha ha , I know! I am on my way to the bank - to deposit my stupid subscribers money.
@T1systems If I understand where you want me to take my thumb "out of" - then you *&*&&%^&^&* f***er.
But if I did not understand it correctly, just do not talk to me anymore. It is my personal opinion that you and me should not interact to say the least!
@T1systems Now I understand why your site is empty. Nobody is left there anyway because you blocked everybody. Then you come to this site to try to get into "exchange of opinions" T1systems's way.
Some socker fans in Europe go to watch games just to pick up fights...
@UPSIPO "you come to this site to try to get into "exchange of opinions"". You'll notice the most popular financial channels have disabled ALL discussions. Why? Too many trolls who don't know what they are talking about creating unproductive distractions. Two things in this discussion interested me. Long Term DJI which I posted about months ago (and even years before youtube). And RP's treatment by the media and the public. He has been made more a hero and more a villain than he deserves.
@T1systems "more a hero and more a villain". An interesting crowd psychology phenomena (that's what EW is all about): the Prechter haters all read and react negatively to my posts about RP's good calls. The Prechter lovers all react negatively to my posts about RP's bad calls. Not one poster noted I was showing both sides. It shows how people get locked in to a POV and get tunnel vision. Indeed, this is what happened to Prechter himself after the 1987 crash: *only* looking for the bear.
@T1systems "more a hero and more a villain". Interesting crowd psychology phenomena (that's what EW is all about): the Prechter haters all read and react negatively to my posts about RP's good calls. The Prechter lovers all react negatively to my posts about RP's bad calls. Not one poster noted I was showing both sides. It shows how people get locked in to a POV and get tunnel vision. Indeed, this is what happened to Prechter himself after the 1987 crash: only looking for the bear.
@T1systems "more a hero and more a villain". Interesting crowd psychology phenomena (that's what EW is all about): the Prechter haters all read and react negatively to my posts about RP's good calls. The Prechter lovers all react negatively to my posts about RP's bad calls. Not one poster noted I was showing both sides. It shows how people get locked in to a POV and get tunnel vision. This is what happened to Prechter himself after the 1987 crash: only looking for the bear.
@jpandyaraja As I say... I am not 100% confident in this cult like view of Elliott Wave and what prechter is doing with Sociology does look very obsessive. I think he counts waves in his sleep :D
Some comments 1. nice scenario - I recall Paul Tudor Jones saying he thinks we're entering one of those volatile sideways periods. Maybe he meant something along these lines. 2. The main economic reason for deflation is the monstrous debt bubble. 3. The DOW rally since 1982 qualifies as a mania and could be completely retraced as all others have been. 4. I don't believe the crowd has ever correctly anticipated inflation and sucsessfully hedged with gold. As a rule, they're wrong.
In sports, particularly basketball, the players with the best stats usually have the record for the most shots missed. To look for someone to be correct all of the time is ludicrous. I will gladly take someone's advice (Prechter) who is correct at least at 40 to 50% of the time. especially if I have no idea of what I am doing. Great counterpoint video, I have increased my protection (calls) on my short positions as a result of this video.
nocsm1 1 year ago
@nocsm1 Thanks for the comment. I do have to stress that I have to distance myself from any financial decisions taken by anyone who has watched it... (don't want to get into trouble with financial regulators).
But I am glad that this video has provided you with an alternative idea for consideration to Prechter's... even if I am wrong... it is never good to have 1 single dogmatic view out there.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
Watch the monthly chart of the dollar index. It´s been bearish since the begining of the 80's. The markets turn down in 2008 and the FED embarks on the hugest monetary expansion of world history. But the dollar index stops making new lows.
Why? Because the flow of credit pay-offs grows in relation with the total oustanding debt. This flow is compensated with new borrowings (new money). But if people stop borrowing, this flow is to big to offset, even for the Fed. It´s simple accounting
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems The issue I wanted to point out is during 2008 and 2009 the Fed has embarked on the hugest monetary (credit) expansion in world history, and the dollar stopped making new lows.
RP thought that in 1987, in 1998, in 2000 the credit bubble did finally come to an end. He´s been consistently wrong in calling the end of the credit bubble, but I think he is right when he says that we are on the biggest credit bubble of history.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@T1systems. Government could decide to change the current credit-money system to a pure fiat-money system. If this is the case, then we will obviusly have deflation. It´s not possible to know what´s going to happen, we only have probabilities.
When debtors are mainly the richest, is more probable that politicians "decide" to print money without any backing at all (Zimbawe, Weimar...) but when most people are debtors and the richest are creditors, Deflation is more likely.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@mpolavieja Sorry, i meant "we will obviusly have inflation"
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
Comment removed
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. Apart from foreign creditors, I think that from a legal point of view the main creditors are the banks, including the Fed. This is a very old story where the usurers let the people borrow to later seize their assets. Most people are so heavily indebetd that their particular "Net Asset Value" is 0 or negative, so almost nothing left to "steal" through inflation.
Prechter might be right or wrong on his price prediction. But I think he is right on depicting the current situation.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@mpolavieja. Regarding Prechter predictions I agree with him that gold is the best possible money you can measure anything with. So if the Dow Jones has declined an 80% since 2000 top, and that´s is a real correction because it´s real money, then maybe we could be almost done with the bear market.
The only thing that makes me think again that bear market is far from being done is the world´s monstruous amount of outstanding debt.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@mpolavieja "Most people are so heavily
indebetd that their particular "Net Asset
Value" is 0 or negative". Given that is
largely true, the Dow @ 40 (zero as a
practical matter in relative terms) would
be "fair value". I guess my wonder is,
be it 390 or 40 or 0, these values are so
low as to essentially reboot the modern
world to a clean slate. Who wins in that
case?
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. Well, few people win I guess... Just a few usurers (as always). But going back to Elliott theory, which I find very interesting (but very unpractical for trading), the entire humankind is suposed to win in the process. It seems that we are not interested in a steady and measured progress, we need a premium (progressing faster than we really can afford). This strategy is not necessarily bad in the long term, even if in the meantime we have to suffer stepbacks.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. Of course, being honest I should say that it´s very unpractical for me. Because I haven´t managed to use it succesfully on my trading, or maybe it´s just that I feel more comfortable with other methodology. But EW is useful for me to get a realistic idea of what to expect on the financial markets. In that sense, thanks to EW and Robert Prechter, I have to say that the current crisis is not a surprise to me at all, it´s just a realistic scenario that has occured.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@mpolavieja. I tend to think that deflation is more a consequence of the credit bubble and that the usurers (who are experts in trading with money) are the few people that know how to take advantage of it. When we get to the point where most middleclass individuals´ NAV is =<0 they are not productive anymore, the golden eggs goose is "dry".
Regarding dow at 40 or 1000 (whatever), after deflation those 40, 400 or 1000 points are more valuable (the same way that now 10.000 is inflated).
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. I didin´t know he said Dow 40, i thought he said just below 1.000. Anyways, a very low stock market could drive us to a financial armaggedon, but not necessarely. The great depression was very bad, but the financial system stayed quite the same.
Japan stock market is a fraction from what it was and they are still one of the most powerful economies... I don´t desagree with you, but i think it´s also possible to have very low stock market prices without financial armgeddon.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@mpolavieja. The great depression or the post south sea depression were not strong enogh to cause a financial meltdown ¿don´t you think?. I can only think of the dark ages after the fall of the roman empire as a real financial meltdown and a idle state of progress. Trade and commerce plummeted, but nevertheless humankind didn´t get back to the neolithic. I think we could have dow @ 40 and at the same time having computers 100 times more powerful than today.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems Well, you might be right depending on the correction´s degree. With Dow @40 is fairly possible things would get as you depict.. Anyways I think is very difficult to foresee now if we are heading to 1000, 400 or 40, even suposing that we are "99% accurate" on our wave count. It´s way too early. But of course it´s not a discardable scenario.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. I don´t know, i am not very experienced counting waves. And even agreeing RP about the degree, for me is also an issue expecting a 4th wave to be as steep as he suggests.
Only the size of the credit bubble makes me think that he could be right.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@T1systems. The target that seems more probable to me is 1987 lows first and the 70's low second. But as I said, I am not very experienced counting waves.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. I think Robert Precther, despite being wrong many times (like everyone else) is honest with his advising. It seems that what he says is what he really believes. Regarding his opinion since 1987.... I wonder how much money he has lost :-S
mpolavieja 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems. Yes he has been wrong on his advise to traders consistently since 1987, I agree. But he has been right on his advise to average investor since 2000 recommending to stay in cash.
mpolavieja 1 year ago
@mpolavieja "the current crisis is
not a surprise to me at all, it´s just
a realistic scenario that has occured."
Likewise.
T1systems 1 year ago
Regarding DEFLATION. Robert Prechter preditcts deflation not only because of the wave pattern, but because an implosion of the credit bubble.
This is pure accounting principles and surprisingly not all the austrian economist understand this (except professor Fekete and a few more). Every single dollar that is created from credit (not out of thin air, which is very different) is inflationist when it´s created, but when the credit is paid back, that dollar dissapears, which is deflation
mpolavieja 1 year ago
interesting views, but my money is still on prechter's analysis. He is a trading champion. Did you call the lows in March 09 within the week like he did? Also, did you call the April 2010 top essentially to the day like he did? Prechter's views maybe seem bizzarre but he's been right for the last 10 years. Look at the bond market man, it is currently pricing in HISTORIC DEFLATION. I also find it very ironic that you are using the technical analysis that Prechter invented to disagree w/ him?
philolson321 1 year ago
@philolson321 Correction: Prechter didn't invent it... he re-published it. It's Elliott Wave Theory (named after R.N Elliott) not Prechter Wave Theory.
I have to say you need to be carefull with interpreting his success rate. As I state in the video I did not call he march low (as I was only just starting to learn Tech. analysis at the time) and I didn't call the April high.
But you are overlooking all the false calls he had leading up to the april high.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk What about March 2009 lows? Robert Prechter did not, repeat did not predict them. Look at his you tubes! He remained bearish until April - May 2009 and then changed to bull. All he said in February 2009 is "to take some money off the table and cover shorts". He did not say buy long, He continued back then "I maintain my bearish outlook".
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@philolson321 Ie: he said the Jan high was going to be the top after we saw some heavy selling.... but we go higher down the road.
I don't disagree with him completely... but I do not think people should buy into his "Guru" status so easily but asses him critically... after all, it makes no difference to me what you do with your money.
But his record as a whole does have some major holes in it, either way... he still provides an interesting analysis.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk "some major holes" come on Andronichuk stop being politically correct. Robert Prechter at best is the worst broken clock ever, at worst he is a crook!
UPSIPO 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@philolson321 Prechter Invented Elliot Wave Principal? You must have been smoking something. Advil , Nurofen, all are brands they have an active ingrediant I B Profen - they are I B Profen.
This is the probl0em on the net, all idiots, ignorant , mentally sick, siccos can post anywhere hiding behind anonimity. "but my money is still on prechter's analysis." you must be drunk?
UPSIPO 1 year ago
What Robert Prechter was saying after the crash in 1987 : Grand Ctcle 70 years, bear market, deflation, defaults, lose of I O Y 's and the bla bla. It is exactly what he is saying today 08/2010. 23 years diferance and the same very things he is saying.
The diferance: DOW was 1730 after crash, now it is 10,600.
All these sotio economics "waves" are his own imaginations, he is telling you that his 100 ANALysts are doing research on those things. It is worst than Arch Crowfords' astrology.
UPSIPO 1 year ago
I swear to God, I saw the TV interview of Robert Prechter , imediatelly after the October 1987 crash. Iy was on a major TV network. He admitted that he screwed up and could not predict the crash. His excuse was that "he thought the bullmarket will continue until DOW 3900 and then the super grand cycle bear market collapse will happen".
It was a disgrace, he lost 90% of his subscribers. I am sure posters will approve of my recollection!
UPSIPO 1 year ago
I will try to give you the link for the Article on Precter being a crook here. But if you go to my id to may favorite link (site) it is there.
Go to the homepage of dailymarkets. Search for an author - wolinsky. A list of articles will apear. The date is July 14th and the Article name is Dow 1000?
UPSIPO 1 year ago
Well Andronichuk seams you were right, the bear is back, with full force and volume! No bad, I must admit.
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@UPSIPO It is looking good for a bearish return... we need to see Friday' lows taken out for some confidence in the move. Hopefully a nice trade out of it around the corner :)
Andronichuk 1 year ago
You do not say anything, if anything , you are saying this week. the bear will be back. Well guess what? Markets will go up sharply today! You might as well talk about what will happen next week, next day , than in the next decade, or next year, or what happened in the last 300 years.
Lets make it clear, if you do not give any short term prediction, which will not produce any money, nobody is going to watch your video "for entertainment purposes", and eventually you will disapear.
PrechterRobert 1 year ago
@PrechterRobert This video has had over 400 views in just less than 2 days. I think there is enough interest out there to discuss this, especially seeing as it has also managed to rack up 50 comments and an internal debate... which was exactly the purpose of it.
I do make shorter term analysis and predictions, some materialise, some don’t. Such is the world of market analysis and trading, especially for someone so new to it (myself).
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@PrechterRobert May I also state that it would be outright stupidity for me to say “This video is for the purposes of financial advice”... anything other than “educational” or “entertainment” would risk me getting a slap on the wrist from the Financial Regulatory Authorities.... and most people seem to understand this.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk
most people except that dumb ass.
orangedac 1 year ago
Max what about the psychology which is associated with each wave, does the psychology support your wave count?
optionsupdate 1 year ago
@optionsupdate Well my personal view is that most people are "uncertain"... what they are however aware of is that the economy is in trouble and the world is changing. So I think a sideways drift on a back of uncertainty and a period of re-alignment could fit well with a 10+ year sideways drift following Tech bubble.
Up to 2000 peak we had Tech Bubble,
Up to 2007 peak we had Housing Bubble,
one more bubble? Gold? T Bills? Stock Market?
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk gold, junk bonds.
this generation has been described as a bubble bubble. bubbles used to only occur once in a lifetime, because once you were hit, you were cautious for the rest of your life, but your kids and grandkids don't feel that same pain.
our generation has seen bubble after bubble. so in one sense our bubble mania is the bubble itself.
skippy3111 1 year ago
thanks for posting very interesting ,
a big move is coming , and after that move we will see if the trading bots can take the market to those highs .
cosmicguerilla1 1 year ago
further to my comment, i personally think it will be a contracting triangle... we finish the D by march 2011 then going into 2012 we do the E which will end above 666 on the SP500... then we see an massive inflation based run for the next decade.
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
@tradeyourwayout I am leaning towards an expanding triangle... will probably post another video looking at the interior patters of the whole thing. But if you look at what I labeled wave A and C... there is a healthy 161.8% relationship between the two.
Not to the pip, but relative for such big swings.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk for this reason i believe a contracting because of this 161.8% relationship. usually you get no fib relationships in expanding triangles, but rather a contracting. so we have a small A, a bigger B and then a slightly bigger C which is still valid provided the D doesn't become bigger than the C. On the daily structure, i think we are very close to a top in the D leg & don't think it will take the high out of 2007 - hence i lean more toward contracting - but expanding is very possible
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
@Andronichuk now that we know we are dealing with a triangle, we can say the top at 2000 was a wave 3 (not wave 5) because triangles only appear as wave 4s and B waves... hence we should have one last bull run which i think will be the 5th wave inflation run. Then i think the pretcher doom will come. the next cycle top points to around 2023ish
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
bingo buddy, i think you got it right with your alternate view. the only question is... are we dealing with an expanding triangle, meaning we see a new high soon OR will it be a contracting... btw i posted the expanding view a long time back
tradeyourwayout 1 year ago
You should give EWI credit for just urging caution and safety. If you interpretation is correct, then within 5 years (a-c time extension to c-e) from now we should see a good buying opportunity below the march lows.
If they're correct, we're into great depression 2; and people's retirements will be devastated. i.e. primarily buy and hold mom and pop types.
We have to see how deep this wave c as per your count or wave 3 as per their count turns out before trying to make long term moves.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 Yeah I would agree 100%. A lot can happen between now and 3 months from now... if we do get one more leg down (short term) seeing how deep it is will be very important. I am not saying Prechter is wrong (after all I am just a student, not exactly credible financial expert here) but I am simply sceptical.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk markets are very complex with many variables. the wave count is just one way to check the pulse of the market. No one has a crystal ball.
understand that EWP is not primarily a market forecasting tool, though this new rush of EW analysts all believe that's what it is. Its a description of how markets move, and that has some intrinsic forecasting value.
Just because one can spell out a particular, pattern doesn't mean the market needs to obey your count. Prechter's or Your's.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems i've never heard him say "go short" on any media outlet. Do you have a source for that quote? When he does advise to go short (in smaller interviews or publications) he's very cautious about it. he's even explained why; going short is very risky, but holding cash just means a missed opportunity.
he's the first to admit he's not right 100% of the time, and no-one else is either.
mom and pops don't go short the market. they go long blue chips with no idea what it is or why its up
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems I've only followed him for the past year. And I do read EWT and EWFF. Right now they say hold cash and cash equivalencies, experienced traders can go short or go long the VIX.
He could have been saying something different in 1993. But I've heard him specifically say that since his 1978 call he's very cautious of telling people to short markets or go long markets, and he's more comfortable telling people to hold cash when times are uncertain.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 "DJIA Summary and
Outlook" Page 1, August Issue,
"Hold Short". No caution, no
stipulations, no stop. What
section are you speaking of?
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems to the left of it, where it says significance to "Traders". Do you consider mom and pops to be traders?
Above it, "Individual investors - Cash or short", "Institutional investors - Hold Cash"
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 "Do you consider mom and
pops to be traders?"
How about "Individual investors".
You say:
"Individual investors - Cash or short"
If you want to be right OK!
"Cash or short" and "Hold Short"
does not mean he is suggesting being
short... Happy? Make sense?
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems My mistake. "Cash or Short fund" for individual investors. They've not reccomended going short on their own.
Also if you'd care to read past the summary and outlook table, in the bottom line, the only statement reccomending any action "Short-term U.S. Treasury bill, while still sporting a negligible yield, remain the best and safest place for investment portfolios."
Also watch any Prechter interview on CNBC or bloomberg. He never tells anyone to go out and short the market.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems p256 of conquer the crash "if you are so inclined, speculate conservatively in anticipation of a declining stock market"
I challenge you to go out and show me a clip where he's talking to a mass audience where he tells everyone to go out and short the market. Every EWI/RP publication I've read and interview I've seen has reccomended to hold cash, and under says you may speculate for the downside if you wish.
Now tell me, what were you calling for in October 07 and March 09?
skippy3111 1 year ago
@T1systems by and large the vast majority of their advice has been to hold cash and equivalents in secure banks, and says you may speculate if you wish. If you take that to mean go out and short the market without a stop loss then its your fault for ignoring the advice that they put their weight behind and jumping on the speculative side that they didn't push with a high degree of confidence.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@T1systems And since 2000 if you were holding 3 month T bills as he'd reccomended in conquer the crash you'd be up 30% versus down 19% if you were in the S&P.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems You're obsessed with the fact that they've said you may short the market but their overwhelming advice has been to hold cash equivalents. I think you're the one who's cherry picking.
I can't comment on the 1993 call, because I didn't follow them back then, and I don't know when they told people to cover shorts if they ever did.
Though I highly doubt that reccomended to short the market, versus telling people to hold cash in anticipation of a falling stock market.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@T1systems "HOLD CASH!!, ps you may conservatively speculate" is not grounds for you to keep whining about a bad speculative call. Their overwhelming call has been for safety
And those two words in the article don't count because 99% of their advice has been hold cash.
This is just going to go back and forth. Lets just wait it out till we're out of summer doldrums. If you think we're about to embark on a great bull market, I dare you to go long and see how that works out for you.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
Comment removed
skippy3111 1 year ago
@T1systems 1st, you're going to have to show me some source to state what you're saying is true about 1993. Especially going short versus holding cash, and the degree to which he recommended each position. I can't find any source to say anything on the matter for or against your claim.
2nd, Can you agree that hold cash vs go short are vastly different recommendations?
3rd, Can you agree that the degree to which you make each recommendation makes a world of difference?
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 If I may just chip in my 5 cents into this debate you two are having (healthy thing to be doin) :)
I have a copy of the Elliott Wave Theorist for October 1987.. during that massive crash. On October 15th he states: "traders/investors should make a move to 50% long any time the Dow is below 2360 and 100% long any time the Dow falls below 2299." And then goes on to say place a stop at 2170.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk I've never seen EWI going into risk management, so I don't know how exactly they wanted you to interpret that.
I see two ways to interpret that, if you're in a leveraged account you could take that to mean risk your entire account on this trade.
Or it could mean if entire account is say 10k, then buy 3-4 lots, in which case you're risking 7%. Which is not a horrendous loss.
But who risks 100% on a single trade? IMO, they meant the latter case, but I could be wrong.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 The next issue on October 22 seems to suggest that most people broke even because the market openedso close to the stoploss level... before falling like a stone to 1750.
I think that Prechter has had some good ideas and analysis.... but it just seems to me that there is a hell of a lot of marketing and public relations efforts with his work.... and if I am not mistaken he actually stated that he personally doesn't even trade.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk He doesn't trade day to day, says that he just holds positions.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 Apologies, I stand corrected.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
Comment removed
T1systems 1 year ago
@Andronichuk Years ago
RP said (more or less):
"I'm glad I don't have
to deal with the the nuts
and bolts of actual trading".
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems Robert Prechter said 2-3 months ago that he "does not have time for trading".
Great , well George Souros had time for trading and made milliards. Prechter lost milliards for his subscribers.
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@Andronichuk OTOH he
killed it in a real money
options trading contest
circa 1982? Something like
200% in 4 months? Won
the contest doing short
term trades in a choppy
market.
T1systems 1 year ago
@Andronichuk Here it is:
"Bob Prechter won the Trading
Championship in options in 1984
with a stunning 444% gain. The
next closest competitor
showed an 84% gain
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems Crap!!! Prechter lost more money than anybody for his subscribers. In 1987 he screwed up big big time. He lost 90% of his subscribers. By the way, if you will not block everybody on your site, you might have this conversation on your site, and will not need to come here.
UPSIPO 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems Yes I was in the New York area in 1987 crash! I was young and I was reading his stuff! I was following him (not a subscriber). I completely disagree with you! Robert prechter was a rising star until the 1987 crash. From that time he collapsed. He made 2 big big errors,
1) He admited that he did not predict the October crash at 2700.
2) He remained super bearish after the crash, with the same "grand cycle bearish crap that he spreads today", he missed on the biggest bull market
UPSIPO 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems I believe Prechter is calling for S&P 400. The "Dow 1000" is the name of the article that Jacob Wilinsky wrote about Prechter. I did not say Prechter is predicting Dow 1000, Althou I think he is predicting a rediculously low DOW
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@UPSIPO 40.56 - 383.96 to be
exact ;-) "Range of the previous
4th wave of one lesser degree,
ideally at the terminus" (40.56).
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systemsI do not remember what channel. All I remember after this very important interview with Robert Prechter back in 1987 - the Investors Daily the major financial newspaper at the time - crucified Robert Prechter, everybody was disapointed, and he simply disapeared for years. Everybody thought he is finished. I am sure he is a crook. He could have saved himself - but he continued his BS about grand cycle bear market while market continued to climb up after crash missing the bull market
UPSIPO 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems My dear sir! I am not going to debate with you what happened in 1987. I have nothing else to add. Lets take the last 2 years ONLY. I WAS NOT Prechter Subscriber! I DID NOT READ THE JUNK HE WROTE. Nut I followed each and every very You Tube which he published! While what he wrote can be maybe interpreted by people like you, what he said on TV can not, repeat can not be debated! He screwed up all the way, the only score was with the dollar lat 2009.
END OF DISCUSSION!
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@UPSIPO I've only blocked
a couple of people. I forget
what you said, but I do get
annoyed when folks, for
example, attack someone
before they even read their
whole post.
I'll unblock ya!
T1systems 1 year ago
@UPSIPO "if you will not block
everybody on your site, you might
have this conversation on your site,"
You said:
"This Elliot Wave is
pure bullshit. One can always
count backword, but never forward."
To me this is not a "conversation".
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems OK. Have I offended anybody? I am still doubtfull about thi statement, I want to be convinced I am wrong, and that Elliot wave can count forward without making 10 corrections on the way, and revizing counts all the time. I agree I said "This Elliot Wave is pure bullshit. One can always count backword, but never forward." , it was because of our "friend" Robert Prechter. He might have done the most damage to this theory.
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@Andronichuk - Research is Bob precther's primary business, so what wrong with him marketing it? and tell me one research company that doesn't markets it self. Your analysis is just based on waves, Bob precther research is a combination of waves and socioeconomics, without socioeconomics wave theories seem useless. you must include some economic reasoning behind your wave analysis - otherwise anyone can make patters out of these waves...cheers
ednan9 1 year ago
@ednan9 Thanks for the comment ednan. But I do include economic reasoning. My main scepticism of the "30s style deflation" bob is calling for is because the completely opposite extremes of monetary policy now compared to then.
I understand his idea of "socionomics"... but keep in mind this is another theory he is putting together. You cannot flat out justify one theory with another one which is even younger and less perfected.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@ednan9 The other problem is of course that socionomics is based on the wave principle.... so he is justifying the wave principle, with a social study based on the wave principle....
It is a completely circular argument.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems agree! Read my link to the article talking abot him. You will freak out. And CNBC is colaborating with this con. CNBC said about Robert Prechter - "the man who predicted March 2009 lows". Robert Prechter did not predict any March 2009 lows! He just said in 02/2009 "time to take some money of the table, time to cover shorts". He remain bearich until 04/2009 or so and only after the market turned he became bullish, until 08/2009, then he became bearish again. In 11/2009 he short
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@Andronichuk Yes a show maker who does not know how to make shoes, this is Robert Prechter!
UPSIPO 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems And I'm not saying you need to read the book. You just need to read two lines below in the summary. Or the whole article. Where it says the safest place is cash or cash equivalencies.
The conversation is simple. A: I think you should hold cash.
B: Why?
A: Because I think the market's going to tank.
B: So I should short the market.
A: Well I'm not that certain, just be safe and hold cash.
B: But if its going to go down then I should short.
A: Fine short, but be careful.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems I'm not making you an offer, that's preposterous. That's an even bigger copyright infringement.
But lets say what you're saying is true*. And I'll grant you those were bad calls. Now does it make you a better practitioner to look at what he's saying today and to try to find any count alternative to that? That seems to be what you're doing. You'd be much better off to ignore what he says all together.
*not that I'm convinced because the degree to which each call is wildly different.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems Oh no, I've read the book, and you're saying alternation. I'm working on my second reading right now.
You're only looking at the EW evidence. EW doesn't take into account the atrocious state of our global debt and in whose hands it is. We can avoid a crash is if the US, EU and now China were to buy out all their bad debt, and I don't believe that's possible, politically or practically.
Bernanke is already losing support from the other governors with his helicopter tactics.
skippy3111 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems "EW pattern is a precursor to news and fundamentals", that's not true. He says social mood is the precursor. The markets may or may not always indicate social mood, but its still the best tool we have to read it. EWT '09. A valid EW count is only a probabilistic path that the market may take.
There are other indicators of social mood that you need to find agreement with your count in, sentiment indicators, dividend yields, stock to book value ratios, debt.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 August 2009*
skippy3111 1 year ago
@T1systems Also, you only need to satisfy EW rules to have a valid count. Guidelines just help you determine a probablistic path. EW rules one their own allow for a lot of quantitavie variablility.
Even if you have a count that satisfies 90% of guidlines, it can still play out differently on the flip side a count with only 10% guidelines can still be what plays out.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 You need to read
his book again. He states that
you always want to start with the
most probable scenario. Otherwise
EW is useless.
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems We're 3-4 months away from having evidence if we're in P3 down or if we're to resume D up as max's video sayswe'll know soon enough. There's nothing to gain by arguing Prechter's record endlessly.
When I read his reccomendations. My take away is still hold cash, or speculate at your own risk.
If you find a way to take "safest place is t-bills" to trump "Cash or Short fund", and then for it to only mean short fund, then you deserve to lose your money.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@skippy3111 We heard
that for 13 years from
1987-2000.....
T1systems 1 year ago
@skippy3111 "Bernanke is already
losing support from the other governors
with his helicopter tactics." Prechter
has shown 100's of times that the
Fed is impotent (one way or
the other). You really should
read his newsletters!
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems And I agree with him, that's exactly my point. The only one in the Fed trying to avert deflation is Bernanke through printing money, which is the political side. Even if he was allowed to do as he wanted, he's not going to succeed because the debt mountain in front of him is massive, which was the practical part I was talking about.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@T1systems I do not understand you? On your site you do not agree with Prechter at all, but you come here to defend him?
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@UPSIPO I am not defending him.
I am not attacking him. I am trying
to offer some perspective for the
many who have only been around
a short time. Take a minute and
read a bit more of the thread.
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems And if I was that invested in proving you wrong I'd just pay the 15$ to get an e-copy from EWI.
skippy3111 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@skippy3111 Please do.
You *do* seem very "invested"
in your doubts: "you're going to have
to show me some source to state
what you're saying is true about 1993."
Again, I was an RP fan. I've got all
those newsletters......... and I've read
them!
T1systems 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@skippy3111 Please do.
You *do* seem very "invested"
in your doubts: "you're going to have
to show me some source to state
what you're saying is true about 1993."
Again, I was an RP fan. I've got all
those newsletters......... and I've read
them!
T1systems 1 year ago
Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Ron Paul, a lot of the Austrian school economists very firmly in the inflation camp and Prechter, the lone ranger calling for deflation.
Now let's see....what often happens when too many people get on one side of a trade?
wizardofounce 1 year ago
@wizardofounce Not really. Inflationists are still still a minority in a global perspective. The vast majority believe we're out of the recession and everything is hunky dory.
skippy3111 1 year ago
@wizardofounce I agree that when most people get on the side of a trade they are usually wrong... but even prechter himself hasn't got a great track rechord of late in comparison to some of these guys. He has been bearish on gold since forever whilst post of these guys made a killing....
But I wouldn't say these guys are the mainstream, they are not convinced with a full scale economic recovery which would fit with my wave "e" crash scenario in the future.
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@wizardofounce if inflation is on its way why are treasury yields so low, bond market is smarter than equity and is rarely wrong.
optionsupdate 1 year ago
Comment removed
me7md 1 year ago
try finance.yahoo.com
skippy3111 1 year ago
If the government quits buying stocks I think Bob Prector could be right. Now days it is just a fraud market, the stock market died back in the late 1980's. Great analysis, thanks for sharing.
scanlonized 1 year ago
Very good video. Prechtar is the most over rated analyst. The media chery picks his picks. Not only is he wrong most of the time I find him to be a liar and twists what he had states. He sounds like a conman\politician. Agree, long term EWT an charts are useless - I think because the y-axis value changes. To that point a chart after 1972 is valid as the Y axis was a fiat currency. Where-as prior, it was backed by gold. Mixing the y-axis values on the same chart is useless.
frank299 1 year ago 7
You coulod not have said it better. Thums up!
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@UPSIPO Thanks, Would really like to see EWT post 1972 only. As well as videos which show the truth about Prechter - how he is as right much as a broken clock.
frank299 1 year ago 2
@frank299 No need to insult broken clocks now :)
Andronichuk 1 year ago
@Andronichuk How dare you insult me! You guys don't understand that I can't allways figure the Social Mood arround. When people are bullish TV brings me on - to boost ratings. You don't understant all those TV stations are co-conspiritors, my associates. Do not you understand we are bloofing you.
Wait a minute! I feel like laughing? Why? I did not do weed? The urge is getting stronger! HA Ha ha ha ha ha , I know! I am on my way to the bank - to deposit my stupid subscribers money.
PrechterRobert 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@UPSIPO "You coulod not have
said it better. Thums up!"
***You*** *could* of said it better.
Two *thumbs* up!
T1systems 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@UPSIPO "You coulod not have
said it better. Thums up!"
But ***you*** *could* have!
Two *thumbs* up!
T1systems 1 year ago
@UPSIPO *You* "could" of said it
better. You need to use your "thumb"
though to type and get it out of .....
T1systems 1 year ago
@T1systems If I understand where you want me to take my thumb "out of" - then you *&*&&%^&^&* f***er.
But if I did not understand it correctly, just do not talk to me anymore. It is my personal opinion that you and me should not interact to say the least!
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@T1systems Now I understand why your site is empty. Nobody is left there anyway because you blocked everybody. Then you come to this site to try to get into "exchange of opinions" T1systems's way.
Some socker fans in Europe go to watch games just to pick up fights...
UPSIPO 1 year ago
@UPSIPO Your not even blocked!
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
Comment removed
T1systems 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@T1systems "more a hero and more a villain". An interesting crowd psychology phenomena (that's what EW is all about): the Prechter haters all read and react negatively to my posts about RP's good calls. The Prechter lovers all react negatively to my posts about RP's bad calls. Not one poster noted I was showing both sides. It shows how people get locked in to a POV and get tunnel vision. Indeed, this is what happened to Prechter himself after the 1987 crash: *only* looking for the bear.
T1systems 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
T1systems 1 year ago
T1systems 1 year ago
this is WHAT scares me about prechter..........the man is pathological.........
jpandyaraja 1 year ago
@jpandyaraja As I say... I am not 100% confident in this cult like view of Elliott Wave and what prechter is doing with Sociology does look very obsessive. I think he counts waves in his sleep :D
Andronichuk 1 year ago
Some comments 1. nice scenario - I recall Paul Tudor Jones saying he thinks we're entering one of those volatile sideways periods. Maybe he meant something along these lines. 2. The main economic reason for deflation is the monstrous debt bubble. 3. The DOW rally since 1982 qualifies as a mania and could be completely retraced as all others have been. 4. I don't believe the crowd has ever correctly anticipated inflation and sucsessfully hedged with gold. As a rule, they're wrong.
jdbrown371 1 year ago