The Business of Climate Change Conference 2009

[rustymason001]

Cost is not the important factor. The important variable is energy-in vs. energy-out. We are running out of the 1/30 oil and are now looking at 1/20 and 1/10 sources, which means we will need to produce ever faster just to stay at the same net level of energy production just to stay even.

[rustymason001]

Why does he talk like that? Very weird. Good presentation otherwise.

[Favel22]

It is possible to replace all our oil consumption with steam engine-compressed air hybrid cars, and to store the energy in heat tanks not in batteries. To produce the heat you use electricity, the electricity comes from stirling engines powered by hot (below boiling) water produced with black plate solar water heaters.

I personally made a stirling engine equivalent with coke bottles. Now trying to make a hot water generator with glass panes. Wont solve anything in the long term..

[Favel22]

It is impossible to produce without energy. At least to produce physical items, not financial instruments and social media websites. Sure, there are ways to be more efficient but as the prophet said, population takes the elevator, resources take the stairs.

[SuperSharksFin]

agree...ang mahal na ng gasoline..

[mareze00]

The age of cheap oil is over! If the consuming nations do not make major efforts to slow down the oil demand growth, we will see higher oil prices, which we think is not good news for the economies of the consuming nations. :(

[bobdaugherty820]

This video is a favorite on Nuku'alofa

[fblack8]

Not sure I'm sold on his theory about the jobs being brought back home due to the high transport costs... If shipping goods long distances is no longer viable how is the economy meant to grow and therefore attract the capital needed to open the plants?

[oldschooloverlord]

@fblack8 I guess the idea is that when you can't transport raw materials and finished goods for an affordable cost, instead of giant factories in asia producing millions of, say, fridges instead they will be manufactured close to the consuming market.

As a result we can expect thousands of efficient, medium sized factories returning to the OECD countries when the wage difference isn't enough to overcome the high transport costs.

At least, thats the theory.

[fblack8]

@oldschooloverlord I see where he is coming from but having imported goods myself from China and seen the massive price differences I think this is a very long way off from happening.

[percygoff614]

This video went viral on Kiribati



[zeistermeist]

Dunno if Jeff Rubin works for the Rockefeller and the secret ruling elites, they have been playing around with energy game long enough to move countries' policies, deposed rulers, moving geopolitics. This carbon footprint business is just another ploy set to motion in order to extract the wealth from the worker bees and at the same time subjugate them into energy submission and edicts.

[TheFaraway73]

eventsworldwide.info

[HillcrestCapital]

SIGH, OK PLANTS COULD TAKE AS MUCH AS 1200 PPM CO2, JUST STUDY BIOLOGY. THIS GUY IS A COKE HEAD FUCKING LOSER WANNABE! NOTHING HE HAS CLAIMED WILL HAPPEN HAS HAPPENED. FUCK THIS FAGGOT LOSER!

[kckmkq]

We don't need a price on emissions. Global warming is nonsense designed to get you the sheeple to live a lower standard of living while these elites swan around in limousines and lear jets.

[JWnFL]

Jeff is Fantastic! God Bless him for sharing! even if he was offseting his bonus loss.

[jak1428]

interesting. rubin sounds like neil postman.

[horse69outside]

the us government should mandate that every building have solar panels and every backyard a windmill, then when we all start riding bicycles and growing our own food, the chinese will be able to drive their cars and heat their homes with the oil that we can no longer afford.

[BarringtonDailey]

Great presentation until he started to talk about Carbon emissions. The environment is very important but co2 taxes are just a lame excuse to transfer wealth.

[hyhhy]

Wow, this guy has a great vision about peak oil's economic effect as well as climate change policy! I found about him only today, I'm really impressed.

[pjkPA]

Tax energy to raise the price... then what ...what are you going to replace it with?... you offer no suggestions.. it has to be nuclear.. which produces not carbon... but they take many years to build and we have not even started designing them.  You really think you can regulate China? Put a tax on their emissions? We already have laws about patents... they could care less .. we have done nothing... what makes you think we will be able to put carbon emission taxes on them .. they will laugh.

[splashy9]

Very interesting.

[MrEnergyCzar]

He explains PO very well.... the only thing you need to know is that economic growth's ultimate limit or demise is that growth is limited by the natural world.

[snuggy2000]

One of the best speakers on peak oil! Unfortunately this only gets around 45K views while some stupid cat video or dancing flight attendant gets 7+ million views. The world indeed is going to hell in a hand basket.

[TurnKeyOil]

@johntconover couldn't agree with you more. This guy is a cash cow =]

[TheMyHP]

Good one Jeff

[mark2073]

This is a good talk, but he doesn't mention electric cars. They are very cheap to drive ($25 a month). They will explode in popularity very soon. The electricity needed to run them would almost be met by no longer refining crude oil anymore, and because they would be charged overnight when demand is low. The only issue is that it will take 20 years to get enough of them on the road to eclipse gasoline powered cars, well maybe not if hardly anyone drives anymore because of expensive gasoline.

[nota2cdtime]

@mark2073 Think of the conversion of infrastructure and supply of lithium ion. Conversion will require oil and there's not nearly enough lithium ion as there is oil. Liquid fuel is the problem, but you have a very good idea. Check Clifford J. Wirth.

[kingzfan1]

@mark2073

Jeff Rubin was interviewed by Allan Gregg (of CBC) last year. Gregg asked him specifically about electric cars like the Volt. The only problem is that if everyone plugged in their Volt, the lights will go out because we don't have the BTU's of energy needed to power them. A battery is not a form of energy, it stores energy. That energy needs to be created somewhere.

[GeoffreyRahl]

@mark2073 Tell me how will we produce the electrecity running these cars? Burning fossile fuels? So unless every household buys solar pannels or windmill to reload its electric car batteries this is gonna be useless

[luceneInAction]

@GeoffreyRahl, Jeff Rubin, the person featured in this article said cheap oil is disappearing, not cheap coal. Electricity produced by coal has a smaller carbon footprint than cars powered by internal combustion engines, even accounting for transmission loses. Large electric power plants have to run 24x7, and have loads of spare electricity available at night. If a large part of the EVs power up at night little or no addition plants need to be built.

[luceneInAction]

@GeoffreyRahl Huge solar energy facilities (100 MW and larger) have recently received regulatory approval in California and the Soutwest. Massive offshore wind potential, both on the Atlantic seaboard and along the great lakes, is waiting to be developed. The great plains states are sometimes referred to as the Saudi Arabia of wind. None of this is cheap, and there are environmental trade offs, but electric vehicles won't be lacking for electricity.

[bf718]

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the worlds volcanoes combined generate about 200 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually, while our automotive and industrial activities cause some 24 BILLION tons of CO2 emissions every year worldwide. So, the Icelandic volcano doesn't begin to compete with us!

[jubbyjubber]

Surely the Icelandic Volcano must have spewed out at least two decades worth of Carbon over the last two weeks, what difference will we make?

[jjrglobal]

Agree with the affordable peak oil theory, but all the carbon emission taxes will do is hurt the countries that implement the tax by growing the size of government. IF the free market is allowed to work the shock to our economies in the west wont be nearly as brutal as it will with a carbon tax added onto higher oil prices. We cant do anything about emerging markets emissions and even if we could it wouldnt make a difference in the overall scheme of things

[MrEnergyCzar]

we replaced whale oil, coal and now we can't replace oil with something that give more energy returned on the energy invested....going backwards to tar sands, shale, heavy oil, artic oil does nothing....

[sabianmonk]

*insure, not ensure,

[sabianmonk]

In terms of mechanics, yes, we do have the fuel and the technologies to produce enough nuclear power to supplement our current electrical needs in the U.S. But we also must take into account the huge increase in electricity demand if our cars go electric. Economically, nuclear power plants are also expensive to build, maintain, replace, decommission and especially to ensure. It would be much better to have a decentralized power system: wind, solar, biofuels, etc.

[ductonius]

Economically, nuclear power is expensive to build (capital costs), but fuel costs are low and maintenance costs are only marginally above that of any other thermoelectric plant type. Currently in the US, the decommissioning costs are built into the construction costs at the time of construction.

Decentralized power is a good supplement where it works, but it requires the same power grid we have without benefiting from economies of scale that centralized power production has.

[however3000]

very much worth the 45 minutes. this is a 'must see' speech.

[phrozeninSK]

what about the margins on the products we buy. Price doesnt have to go up if greed goes down.

[ductonius]

Geothermal is a good supplement and should be used where possible, but the main limitation is it is not feasible in most places. Geothermal requires abundant underground heat close to the surface and most places where people live do not have enough. Drilling deeper to find hotter rock increases costs massively. The energy density must also be high enough.

Nuclear power works anywhere there is a source of cooling water and people tend to live near lakes, rivers, seas and oceans anyway.

[ductonius]

The world will, by necessity, embrace nuclear power. The technology is well understood and the fuel is - for all intents and purposes - unlimited. The difficulties seen with nuclear power are for the most part a result of ignorance and irrational fear.

The global economy can function without the presence of cheap oil, it cannot, however, function with the presence of thoughtlessness.

[relocalizenow]

@ductonius Check your facts ductonious. There is a very limited supply of uranium!

[ductonius]

Fuel reprocessing can extend uranium reserves up to 50 times. Breeder reactors can extend this number many times over and the use of thorium fuel further extends that number three to four times.

The oceans contain 4.6billion tonnes of dissolved uranium. Because fuel costs are so small for nuclear power, even if the extraction costs were 10 times that of mined uranium it would not make nuclear power unfeasible.

There is no shortage of nuclear fuel, just a shortage of political will to use it.

[aylesmerep]

Replacing oil and coal with nuclear would mean a vast number of new nuclear stations world wide in every country, stable or not. Breeders would make proliferation of fissionables much more of a problem, multiply terrorist targets etc

[ductonius]

Your arguments are all strawmen.

There is nothing that says we need to encourage or allow the use of nuclear technology in unstable countries, which tend to not be industrialized and thus have low CO2 outputs and oil usage anyway.

Similarly, there's no reason any county not already industrialized and stable would need breeder reactors.

Nuclear terrorism concerns are nothing but a mix of alarmism and ignorance.

[knobcreekfarms]

um, uranium is also a finite resource. It to will peak and it's supply decline. It is not "unlimited."

If you think nuclear is so safe can we count on you to house the waste at your home?

[ductonius]

The oceans contain 4.5 billion tonnes of uranium, about 1000x that of land-based sources. Thorium can be used as fuel and is 5 times as abundant as uranium. Reprocessing spent fuel can extend the supply roughly 50x.

"Nuclear waste" is a misnomer and is called waste for political purposes. Anything radioactive enough to harm a person is actually useful as fuel. Storage of "waste" is unnecessary, but again, is done for political purposes.

[vonneebee]

and you'll never see any of this on TV. nobody wants the "real reality" on tv.

[lmtlsss]

Scientists=Used car Salesmen.

[stevo6969]

This is a really enlightening and fascinating lecture. What an exciting time to be living in the world.Thank you for putting it up.

[lamortee]

We actually already pay around seven dollars per gallon in Sweden, but that is of course with added tax. But having it trippled? Help :)

[IANRUDD]

All the talk is on the supply side.

China, if it continues on its current growth path, (impossible in the long run) will, in 30 years time, itself require as much oil as the world now produces -if its consumption patterns mirror those of the US.

Read Lester R Brown's book Plan 3.0 or google him and watch one of his talks on the subject.

[topcat113]

The people will not put up with carbon taxes. This guy is demented.

[EveryNicksTaken2]

@topcat113 Why not? It already exists in Europe. Its called energy tax.

[acric5]

nice beginning, however he loses all credibility and actually looks very foolish with his conclusions. He wants the market to control emissions by regulating with taxation ( force ). Never in history has government regulation improved productivity...........never. He's an idiot not worth any discourse. Critical tipping points exist only between the ears of those who have no means to prove causation. The old because God wills it answer.

[utube77459]

@acric5 Let's see, and you are currently or have been the Chief Economist where?

Windbag! You have nothing substantial to offer in rebuttal so you do what you do best - offer the empty reply of a pompous ass.

[azzythehero]

batman

[grettir2]

looks like a moron, talks like a moron, reasons like a moron -- a bath in warm spit is more inviting and would be more enlightening

[pgilki]

@grettir2 Yeah. It's really too bad he's not as smart as you.

[99minerkc]

We had electric cars which would reduced our dependence on oil! What happened to the electric car? Simple, ELITISTS invested in the oil industry were losing money!!! They WANT US OIL DEPENDENT!!

[Hambardo]

What do you think that electricity is mostly produce from? Coal and oil. And the situation with coal reserve is not much better than that of oil.

Regards

[99minerkc]

"What do you think that electricity is mostly produce from?" Much of it is produced from Nuclear power plants and more and more from wind mils and other NON oil methods!

[Hambardo]

I'm sorry to tell you that what you say it is correct, but only for very few peolple and a very short period of time. To cover actual, and, above all, future cosumpiton of energy only for transportation, all the sources you cited wouln't be minimally sufficient.

Moreover uranium supplies have the same problem of the coal and oil supplies. The solution you suggest would be feasible only by increrasing efficiency in energy consumption and by REDUCING energy consumption. LESS TRANSPORTATION

[99minerkc]

Our country could become FAR less dependent on oil. HOWEVER, the that's not in the monetary benefit for the (at least presently)elitists who are invested in oil. So long as there's plenty of oil(and or greed) things will remain the same!

[f1nK3L90]

have faith, for business cycles cut the long trends of usurpation. opportunity arises from the unsustainable position of the closely guarded flow of money from the pores of the manufacturer.

[99minerkc]

Sorry but I don't believe in faith in anything! I used to but that's long gone! What happens happens!

[f1nK3L90]

right, just look at the great depression and new deal. do you believe that mr. roosevelt could have passed those legislations if he didn't preside over a country full of unemployed? i'm just saying, look at the historical trends - at what has happened. our economy is not unpredictable.

[99minerkc]

Me whining? Look at yourself!! You're going on a BIG rant here and you don't know me or my circumstances!! Tell you what, go fuck yourself ASSHOLE!!!!

[f1nK3L90]

right, i call that a right of reply. however, i still would like to know whether you take my historical point of view as true or possible.

[99minerkc]

I am under the impression that uranium is LONG lasting, is that not true?

[plantraco]

Well stated. Very strong argument for carbon emission taxes.

[revrickw]

A lot of insight here!

[mkinghubbert]

'bout time someone said it: THIS IS A PEAK OIL RECESSION!

[renatobortot]

I agree 100% !

[hongisto24]

I usally never buy books...bought his.

[florgat91]

Iraq is the new Saudi Arabia

[knobcreekfarms]

okay- so at the very best, baring more violence and death, they can get Iraq up to 12 million a day in five years. in five years, as Mr. Rubin has pointed out, we'll need 20 million a day more just to keep even with today's consumption at the current 5% decline rate. What if decline rates increase?

I'm not even going to start on the blood that has spilled to get that oil into the privatized highly lucrative fully open to international corporate profit making machine.

[johnTconover]

Jeff Rubin will be a household name in the new decade, as usual he's right on the money... 5 stars;-)