2009: 11 Years of NO Global Warming

[GuyThreepwoody]

most recent sat data- drumroll…..we are now at 0.12 C above average….

this hurricane season sets the longest stretch ever without a landfall in the US…

AAAAARRGHH!!!!

This confirms my worst fears,

This ‘climate change’ is far worse than we thought-

not only is CLIMATE CHANGE responsible for any notable heat, cold, snow, floods, droughts, raining cats and dogs….. but now something far more terrifying… BORING WEATHER!! Surely there can be no deniers left!!

[retaprovo]

This is pretty COOL!

[cristop5]

If you have Microsoft Excel or a similar spreadsheet program you can easily access data and look at global mean temperature trends for yourselves.

I've produced step by step guides to:

1. the CRU mean global surface temp data watch?v=OS44qirIOcU

2. the NASA mean global surface temp data watch?v=8Q97zVngPGU

3. the UAH satellite temperature data watch?v=I3q3zs0EVDU

[drkstrong]

No warming since 1998? Wel first they take the year with a record El Nino (warming trend) but the problem is that 2005 was warmer and 2009 was tied. 2010 will likely set a new record.

The last year (Aug 09 to July 10) has been the hottest 12 month period ever recorded.

The last decade was likely the warmest decade in 1000 years and may well be the warmest since the beginning of the holocene.

Yeah, right, thing are really cooling down! NOT!

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong "...may well be the warmest since the beginning of the holocene."?? (last 12,000 years)

So, you are claiming that you know the global average temperature, for each of the previous 1200 decades? Because if you don't , there is no way that you can make this claim. But this is very typical of warmists: make hyperbolic claims about things they know nothing, and neither does anyone else.

Please post the link to this database of decadal temperatures for the previous 12000 years

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall I make no claim of knowing 1200 decades. As you go back in time global temperature resolution gets worse so you have to average over longer periods & the uncertainies become larger. As the modern temperatures are very well known they have small error bars, it is possible to make such a claim if the temperatures are similar (& they are). It is more plausible than the claims of the medieval warm period being hotter than now by your side - a local phenomenon with huge unceratinties

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong But when you make the claim of current temperatures being "unprecedented" you have to have accuracy for both things you are comparing. It is extremely likely that there were many decades in the bronze age, or Roman warm periods, or further back in the Holocene climate optimum, that were warmer, but these are smeared out in the century-scale averaging.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall In fact it is extremely unlikely as GHG levels were much lower then. Remember we're talking global temperatures not local western european temperatures which are effected by a short-term shifts in the gulf stream. To change temperatures globally you need something global to be happening. What could have a larger effect than GHGs? Certainly not the Sun as it has been at a similar level or lower for the last 8,000 years (see various papers by Solanski on solar activity proxies)

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong So let me get this straight: You reject the possibility of any decade in the last 12000 being warmer, not because we have observational evidence, but because you believe that extra human emitted GHGs control warming, therefore there couldn't have been any warmer decades. What an utterly circular argument.

" What could have a larger effect than GHGs? "

Argument from ignorance = FAIL

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall The observational evidence is that

1) CO2 levels were lower than now (ice core data)

2) Solar activity levels were similar to or lower than today's levels (isotope measurements)

3) GLOBAL temperature reconstructions indicate that previous periods were no warmer than today (tree ring, bore hole, staligmite, sediments, & ice cores)

So I ask again what else could have made the Earth warmer? If there no factor left to cause it then it is unlikely that it was warmer

[drkstrong]

@drkstrong

PS I said "may well be" that does not mean that I "reject the possibility of any decade in the last 12000 being warmer"

I specifically said 8000 years (not 12000) which is considered the peak of the Holocene temperature until now

Google "Holocene temperature variations" then choose "images". The first hit shows 2004 (8th warmest year) for 2010 you can add 0.1-0.2C which puts it above all Ts

Dont put words in my mouth and then critisize them. That is a debating trick.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong "So I ask again what else could have made the Earth warmer?"

And I repeat: This is argument from ignorance. Just because you can't explain observation x, it is scientifically illegitimate to decree that therefore it must have been caused by incredibly small increase (ppm) in GHG. This is the theist argument.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall No, I gave you 3 pieces of evidence to support my claim that the last decade MAY WELL be the warmest for 8000 years. The national academy already agreed that the 90's were likely the warmest decade for the last 1000 years, possibly 2000 years. The 2000's were warmer again making that even more likely to be true. We then look at the factors affecting global climate and find none of them have changed sufficiently in that 8000 year period to warm the climate to a higher temperature.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong And as you have admitted, the "resolution gets worse" in prehistoric temperature reconstructions. There MAY WELL have been many decades warmer than now during the HCO, BAWP, RWP or MWP, but we'll never know because these variations are smeared out over century time scales.

Funny how these alleged "hottest years on record" are not producing any increase in the rate of sea level rise above the 2-3 mm/year we've seen since pre-industrial.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall Global sea level rose by about 120 m during the several millennia that followed the end of the last ice age, & stabilised between over 2,000 years ago. Global sea level has not changed significantly from then until the 19th century. The modern instrumental record shows evidence for onset of sea level rise during the 19th century. Estimates for the 20th century show that global average sea level rose at a rate of about 1.7 mm/y.

Since then the rate has nearly doubled to 3 mm/y

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong Wrong. This supposed "increase" in SLR in the early 90's amazing coincides with the change from tide guages to satellites. However each on their own shows no increase in the rate of rise.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall

"Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 [+/-.5]mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1 [+/- .7] mm/yr, with contributions from thermal expansion, melting glaciers & ice caps, and the polar ice sheets. Whether the faster rate for 1993 to 2003 reflects decadal variation or an increase in the longer-term trend is unclear."

That is a direct quote from the IPCC FAR Summary for Policy Makers. See fig SPM1 which shows satellite & gauge data - they agree

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong See "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. L. Woodworth (2008), Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611

And note even the alarmism-biased IPCC has had to admit that this supposed increase cannot be called a trend, let alone a human-caused one.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall

Thanks for providing me with another reference to support my case. You should have read the abstract before quoting it!

"...Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century & 19 cm in the 20th century. .... & will rise 34 cm over the 21st century. Long time constants in oceanic heat content & increased ice sheet melting imply that the latest IPCC estimates of sea level are TOO LOW"

Acceleration. Coincidence that the industrial revolution started 200 years ago? I think not

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong Predictions are not evidence. Observations are. Thier Data show no increase since the mid 19th century. But of course researchers have to throw in the obligatory blood-curdling prediction . Those research grants aren't going to access themselves.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall

Data: 19th Century - rise in sea level: 06 cm

Data: 20th Century - rise in sea level: 19 cm

Data: Current rate: 28 cm/century (Cambers et al. 2003)

Data: Current rate: 31 cm/century (IPCC, 2007)

Sure looks like an acceleration to me. You want data, there is data. Now will you admit you are wrong?

and nothing to do with grants (one of the sources used is an Australian government scientist so requires no grants.

PS grants mainly pay for student salaries

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong The last 3 figures you give do not rebut my claim that sea level rise is not significantly different than the 2-3 mm we've seen since the mid 19th Century. Yes it was slower before that. You aren't seriously claiming we were responsible for that are you?

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall No, I am not. The experts on sea level are.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong So. Reverting again to argument of authority, in the absence of evidence.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall Tell that to your doctor that you dont except expert opinion when next he recommends some treatment for a serious condition.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong If my doctor fudged or lost data, tried to blacklist any other doctor who didn't agree with him, practiced advocacy rather than sober diagnosis and fantasised about beating up critics at conferences (read the Climategate emails) then I wouldn't have much trust in him either.

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall I would not trust him either if any of that were true but it isnt so you can trust them.

You seem much more happy discussing political diversions than answering any of my critical factual points. Wonder why?

No answer as to why they chose a record El nino year as their reference?

No answer to 2000-9 being the warmest decade?

No answer to why 2010 is setting all kinds of records?

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong Whatever year you want to choose as your starting point, the warming since the mid 19th century is not catastrophic. Noughties warmest on record? Yes a few hundredths of a degree above the eighties. Again, a wholly non-catastrophic warming trend that is hardly surprising since we're still recovering from the Little Ice Age. And are you suggesting that climate alarmism hasn't long ago become politicised??? ROTFLSHMBFO!!

[drkstrong]

@SteveWrathall You know that during the Little Ice Age global temperatures only dropped about 0.4C on average. That is half of what they have increased in the last 40 years or so.

[SteveWrathall]

@drkstrong"-0.4 deg during the LIA"? meaningless unless you specify which base period you are comparing with which LIA period, and we have already discussed how use of proxies smear . As for your claim of +0.8 deg rise in the last 40 years: from Wiki (Global warming) "global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century". So you deny there was any early 20th century warming? All ~0.8 deg occurred since 1970? More shameless number manufacture.

[Thisawareness]

Al Gore was one of the architects of two of the most anti-American, anti-human rights, & anti-environmental legislation in the history of the United States. He was in office when NAFTA & GATT expansion to the WTO happened.

Multiple tens of millions of jobs that paid good wages were shipped to Al Gore's Marxist friends in China & the third world so that corporations who greased Gore's pockets could exploit the Environment & Human Rights & stuff their fat pockets with money

[duck24x]

@Thisawareness Al Gore has NOTHING to do with the environment or global warming! Shitheads can't figure that out. He is a rightwing nutjob, just like you

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x Hi Duckie, I'm glad you called the AGW Prophet a shithead. That's a start of your rehabilition. I like it better when you call people "neo-con wacko's" better

Do you think Tipper got tired of being laughed at because Al's AGW ponzi scheme is collapsing and almost everyone knows its a scam?

[duck24x]

@Thisawareness You're just another hater of American freedoms who tried to threaten violence against Americans like Michael Moore.

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x Your just another global warming idiot who hates America and spews false propaganda and idiocy to promote a Carbon Tax so that Gore and the former Bush Secretary of the Treasury and former CEO of Goldman Sachs along with other flimflammers from there can make billions off of Carbon credit services. Shame on you Duckie spinning tall tales to promote gw racketeerring so unsuspecting Americans will pay more taxes to fill Gore's and his banker friend's pockets

[duck24x]

@Thisawareness And you're just another selfish baby who wants to take up a billion square meters of land and pollute the rest of the planet, leaving no clean air, water or land for anyone else. You murder & torture animals just to feed your selfish little taste for meat, so you have no business telling ANYONE, even conservative capitalist pro-WalMart China, about the consequences of their actions.

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x And your just another brain dead no talent assclown who believes that implementing a Carbon tax on the US taxpaying working/middleclass while Gore and his banker gangster friends will make billions off of, while assclowns like yourself run around with Chinese made Hannah Montana Cadmium toxic watches that rot out what little brain matter your puny brain had to start with.

Do you also play with lead filled crayons from China also kid?

[duck24x]

@Thisawareness You never made it past first grade. Hey - you make this Al Gore guy sound like a smart guy! Hope buries you with all the money you claim he's going to make off this alleged "GW hoax". Why don't you go ask your loverboy GW Bush why he caused 911?

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x You should ask Bush's former Secretary of the Treasury who is in business partnership with Gore that question. FYI kid, that Hannah Montana watch your wearing has Cadmium in it, better take it off before you don't have enough brain matter left to remove it

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x The Carbon Tax proponents like the Corporate Bankers who are the hereditary enemies of the people and Gore the carbon Lord fraud business partners in this racketeering operation, use small minded idiots like yourselves, feed them with tales of right vs left politics and set them loose to spread their misinformation and propaganda to try to convert people who are not that informed of the consequences of Cap & Tax will be. Meanwhile the #1 polluter China, gets a pass on "the fix"

[jerbiebarb]

steveW, if you care about your kids go to ht tp :// data. g iss. nas a.gov / gistemp /

look at the warming and stop spreading misinformation

[SteveWrathall]

@jerbiebarb Yes, and these graphs clearly show a flattening off after 1998. My kids rather need to be protected from the depredations of those who would make it unaffordable to heat their homes or put food on the table.

[jerbiebarb]

@SteveWrathall We're in the deepest solar minimum in a 100 years! and GW is overwhelming all of it!

NASA: Easily the hottest April — and hottest Jan-April — in temperature record

Plus a new record 12-month global temperature, as predicted. This should scare your kids if it doesn't scare you.

May 16, 2010

[indulis1]

@SteveWrathall While you make sure that AGW happens and drought and changing rainfall patterns reduce farm outputs and makes food more expensive. By the way, I can't see a "flattening", it is just not going up as fast!

[indulis1]

@SteveWrathall When will you take down this video with its incorrect claims? Anyone looks at the real graph (not one doctored by using a subset of data, e.g. just the results from East Anglia ignoring the rest of the world's air and sea readings), then they see continued warming. Replace the graph's Y axis with "stock market", and then answer the question "has the stock market been trending up over the last 30 years?" 1st graph here says it all. h tt p: // data. giss.n asa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

[duck24x]

Are you Australian? AngryAussie is right.

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is real and serious.

[SteveWrathall]

@duck24x No, I'm a NZer.

Yeah so real and serious that the Aussie PM is walking away from his own defining policy: an emissions trading scheme.

[duck24x]

@SteveWrathall It is massively logically inconsistent to simultaneously complain about efforts to fight ANY envronmental problem (GW, whatever) for being too weak - suggesting that implies that the activists & politicians do not really believe in the cause - and complaining about efforts being too strong, and calling them "extremist" or some other such lies & bullshit.

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x Hey Duck, as you know, having a "solution" that does not address the #1 factor or polluter, as you know means its a fail.

Beware the Cult leader (Gore) who says " Do as I say, not as I do"

[duck24x]

@Thisawareness You should beware of cult leaders like Limbaugh, Beck and Alex Jones (although I admire Alex Jones for his courage - back in 2003 when it was hard to do so - in going after the real culprits behind 911, instead of swallowing the big-corporate-big-government lie like all you GW-deniers do).

Blah blah blah - you brainless shits still refuse to address any of the observed sciences and computations.

[SteveWrathall]

@duck24x If you are so against "Big Government" why are you supporting policies that will vastly increase their ability to regulate and restrict our lives

[duck24x]

@SteveWrathall You say you're a NZ-er. Were you out supporting heroes like Michael Moore back in 2003 & 2004 protesting TRILLIONS of dollars of BIG GOVERNMENT when fascist US president George Bush illegally overthrew the country of Iraq? It would have been easy for YOU - outside the USA - to protest American policy.

If YOU want to pay the INFINITELY GREATER costs of social upheaval & taxation brought on by ignoring GW, then YOU should be forced to pay it, NOT me.

[indulis1]

@SteveWrathall There is a difference between government that regulates industries (banking, manufacturing) etc for the public good, and one that stands by while disaster happens. I think that the governments that went in against Hitler were spending money, weren't they? In fact, after WWII, the USA was criticised for its delay. That was a huge commitment of economies to stop a disaster that many could see was coming. Sometimes money must be spent to avert disaster.

[duck24x]

@indulis1 The conservative terrorists and corporate terrorists and freedom-haters like Thisawareness & SteveWrathall are mentally incapable of understanding, let alone responding, to such an "incredibly difficult" distinction. They cannot see the difference between using the force of law or military to take the wealth of labor from the bottom 99% and giving it to the top lazy 1% (which they support) versus taking back the wealth stolen by the top 1% and giving it to the bottom 99%.

[Thisawareness]

@duck24x Dodging the truth Duckie?

You know as well as anyone reading this offering a "Solution" that does not address the #1 polluter in the equation is a fail and fraud

'

Looking at the AGW Cult leader Gore's polluting lifestyle, means he doesn't even believe his own BS

[duck24x]

@Thisawareness Hey, Unaware! I turned on my tv this morning (which I almost never do), the channel was set randomly - first thing that popped up on "The Today Show": students in some school district in Pennsylvania were actively getting involved, on their own initiative, in climate action and fighting global warming. The high school kids were interviewed on the Today Show. Smart kids!

Made my day! HA HA HA!

[indulis1]

@SteveWrathall So what has politics got to do with reality again?  Politicians will do what it takes to do to get elected, not what is best for the country now, or in the future.

[co2isgoodal]

The man-made global warming hoax is not true.

31,000 Scientists say that it is not true.

It's been warmer in the past.

CO2 is beneficial to plants.

The founder of the Weather Channel says AGW is a scam.

Climategate shows the alarmists are liars.

[indulis1]

@co2isgoodal The "31000 scientists petition" has serious flaws and was misleading . It included a "faked up" paper formatted to look like a real science document. There was no attempt to verify the signatories (ie it includes cartoon characters). Look for Climate Crock 31000 Scientists here watch?v=Py2XVILHUjQ. Then see if you can still support your view. I don't see anyone trusting climate scientists to design bridges, I don't trust other science fields to comment on climate science.

[SteveWrathall]

@indulis1 Then why, by your own standards, do we give any creedence to the IPCC process, which is loaded with people (politicians, activists, economists) who aren't scientists at all?

[indulis1]

@SteveWrathall Look there is no point in discussing anything while you just jump from one claim to another without finishing off the discussion. Fact: the 31000 scientists petition is discredited. Are you willing to accept that? If not then you are not open to anything else and you should just close off comments on this video.

[Thisawareness]

Sorry Marxist warm-mongers

The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded.

The admission today followed a New Scientist article last week that revealed the source of the claim made in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was not peer-reviewed scientific literature but a media interview with a scientist conducted in 1999

Liars, frauds & railroad conductors!

[indulis1]

@Thisawareness Gee so that proves all 900+ other papers reviewed to make up the IPCC report are wrong as well, does it? Scientists admit error, as these did. With 900+ papers reviewed, it would be impossible for ALL of them to have no errors. Climate change deniers continue to ignore overwhelming evidence such as continued reduction in Arctic ice volume. That is the difference between scientific skepticism and denialist skepticism.

[Thisawareness]

@indulis1 Loads of errors friend. Tell me about Climategate and the MWP, please.

[indulis1]

@Thisawareness Sure- British Parliament report says “We have found no reason in this unfortunate episode to challenge the scientific consensus.” Anything more that you are not able to understand, or unable to find yourself. Oh thats right, actual investigations don't count, it is the climate skeptic bloggers that do. Now I am just waiting for the conspiracy theory to be rolled out. Come on, please don't disappoint me and your therapist!

[Thisawareness]

@indulis1 ClimateGate ‘ Christy: ' "I've been very disappointed with what has gone on even with respect to some of the IPCC elders and their pronouncements for forthcoming disasters. … the dose of climate change disasters that have been dumped on the average citizen is designed to be overly alarmist and could lead us to make some bad policy decisions " anelegantchaos org/cru/emails php?eid=230&filename=990718382 txt

[conchman]

oh by the way, between 1940 and 1970 temperatures went down, even though it saw the highest increase in Co2 emissions due to war and increased industrial activity. There is no significant correlation between increase in Co2 and temps. In fact, its the other way around, higher temps cause Co2 levels to go up. Just superimpose Al Gore's graphs on top of each other, you will see an 800 year average lag (thats why he didnt put the graphs on top of each other).

[conchman]

1998 was not the hottest year this century, it was 1934. The data collection used for the study showing 1998 was seriously flawed, like temperature gauges on asphalt or next to outdoor AC vents. By the way, the years 1000-1250 were much hotter than today. Cattle grazing in Greenland by the Vikings, grapes in northern England, Citrus in China proves this. Man Made Global Warming is the biggest scam in human history.

[indulis1]

@conchman So if it has never been so hot on the planet, explain why an 18,000 year old glacier has now melted. By definition, it is not consistently hotter over a longer period (at least here) than it has been in 18,000 years. Pretty simple logic. And if you can't follow the warming graph, pretend it is the stock market, and tell me if it is trending up over the last 30 years? So simple that a child could see it, but apparently not a denier. ht t p ://data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp /graphs/

[Thisawareness]

@indulis1 ClimateGate

‘

Christy: “In one of the pre-interviews they asked about the "Hockey Stick". I

told them of my doubts about the intercentury precision of the record,

especially the early part, and that other records suggested the period

1000 years ago was warmer. …

'

anelegantchaos org/cru/emails php?eid=230&filename=990718382 txt

[ronpaulbot]

The record heat of 1998 was due in part to a very strong El Nino. Likewise, in the early part of 2008 there was a La Nina which causes atmospheric temperatures to drop.

If you had the La Nina in 1998 and the El Nino in 2008, the graph would look considerably different. Which leads me to suggest that 11 years is not enough data for climate change analysis to start breaking out the champagne.

[SteveWrathall]

Even if what you said had happened it would not change the last 30 years' temperature trend significantly, (See my "really no big dea" vid. ) We've seen a slight warming that vastly undershoots the catastrophist projections.

[indulis1]

@SteveWrathall Actually it is spot on with the climate projections. And the last 30 years trend is up UP UP!

[berwinch]

what the hell is up with all of the pictures of the kid?

[SteveWrathall]

Those are my boys: Aaron and Charlie. It's them that will have to have a living standard vastly below mine if we allow the global warmists to put the world on an energy diet.

[ErichRaeder]

Its more like cooling happening at the moment,take a look at the sun,no sunspots for 6 months

[Spurgeon123]

Genesis Chap 8 verses 21 and 22

Gods promise there will be winter and summer, springtime and harvest until He returns

[SteveWrathall]

The bible authors were on pretty safe ground making this prophesy.

But the Flying Spaghetti Monster (BHNA) promises 4 seasons a year AND Comet Halley returing every 76 years. Beat that Yahweh!

[crazy7house]

true

[crazy7house]

I looked it up, you are correct, thanks!

Another factor Scientists don't ad in is God, and that's like solving an equation without the balance... this is another reason I do not believe in Global Warming.

[GlobalOpvarmningCom]

So true. Thanks for posting.

Its time international politicians face the truth, and represent the people - not the environmental industry.

[gufpott]

Well done again Steve.

But where did you get the idea of the funny hat?

Ah hopes you not bin' lookin' at tham thar WanderingMind videos and alarmist bufoonery now!

[SteveWrathall]

Yes I'm afraid I'm as abig a video whore as Wanderingmind. Nothing like funny hats to bring in the punters.

[JonThm]

Water falls and breaking waves do nuclear fusion from water, today. So does the steam cycle! Google 'molecular nuclear fusion'

[SteveWrathall]

Where is the helium and heat from this fusion?

[JonThm]

Nature deos loads of molcular nuclear fusion. The He is lost ot space, and you breath in the O2!

[bluehorse888]

Ive come to the conclusion that they actually want to creat freezing temperatures on earth to support their cold blooded hearts!

[JonThm]

Nuclear power publisised GW 26 years ago, to get new plants of death. THe 0.00037% CO2 in the air has no effect on the climate! It goes up in an ide age.

[SteveWrathall]

Even though catastrophic GW is BS, most of the world is still going to need more nuclear power because of peak fossil fuels.

[JonThm]

No. Nuclear fission kills bgi time! We should do nuclear fusion, like fields of green crops do! And leave the uranium in the ground, where it does no harm!

[SteveWrathall]

Fusion would be great, but unfortunately does not exist.

[Gromitdog1]

Even if global warming was proven to be a true phenomenon, the notion that man's effect on the earth's temperature is significant compared to the massive nuclear furnace aka the sun is ludicrous.