Signal-to-Noise Ratio: Finding Context in Iranian Tweets

[blackiron60]

At least the people of Iran are willing to fight back. Compare this with the people of the United States who experienced two stolen elections over the past decade and did practically nothing. Compare this with the people of Canada, my country, where we have let the Prime Minister unilaterally suspend parliament twice without doing anything more except complain. People have to be willing to take to the streets if they do not want to see their liberties taken from them.

[hithlum]

They only fight back because they have harsher living conditions than people in Canada, or the U.S. back in 2000. That's why they are willing to fight back.

[blackiron60]

Actually a lot of the Iranian protestors are professionals and do quite well for themselves economically, and man we've got enough people in the United States and Canada who are subject to harsh living conditions (native peoples, slum residents etc.). This is more about people's willingness to fight than anything else. At least the people in Iran are not shrugging their shoulders and cynically giving up like so many people in North America are prone to doing.

[hithlum]

Yes, It's true, the movement was initially a petty bourgeoisie movement which is why you heard empty slogans like "Where's my vote."

But also remember, there was an economic recession which brought down a lot of the working class people and at the same time, the petty bourgeoisie was pissed at being bullied by the more powerful bourgeois class and piss off at being unable to conduct business since the working class people are holding on to the little money they have.

[hithlum]

That being said, these economic factors paired with the lack of personal freedom they have contributed to their uprising in summer 2009.

But now, it's looking a lot like 1979 in the sense that they are not afraid of the police or military anymore.

When people are willing to put their lives on the line, you can't tell me that their material conditions did not play a role in it.

They are no longer screaming "Where is my vote" they are now screaming "Death to the dictator"

[imandxb31]

@hithlum Well, its true that according to the western standards the Iranians are living in a lower level of financial and commercial state (but not necessarily according to their own standards) but what do you have to say about the % of the people taking part in the elections in compare to the western societies(eg US)

The Shia teachings (which turned as a culture for centuries) raises the Iranians, from childhood, as PROactive against the fluctuations in their environment...

[hithlum]

I was told that more people voted because Mousavi was proposing minor reforms, which people felt was better than no reforms at all.

Like I said to blackiron60, it's only when peoples living standards are threatened that they will get out to vote.

I don't know anything about the Shia teachings.

[imandxb31]

1)I dont know why, but i felt a soft and honest simplicity in your answer whichwas very attractive and unbiased. Thanks for such an attitude...

Re the % of the participation, your idea would be valid if we hd experienced a surge in the number of the voters...but to be honest every one of the elections (Presidential, Parliament, Expert Council...) ever since 1979 has been more or less in the same manner and level. Remember the 1st time Ahmadinejad was elected?? Remember Khatami?...

[hithlum]

Really? I was told more people had come out to vote in 2009.

[imandxb31]

2)Yet, it is obvious that there are a significant number of the citizens who fundamentally dont like the governing system, no doubt about it...but it would be a mistake if we were to consider them as the majority. One of the biggest mistakes most of the observers fall into is to consider the online population or the Tehrani residents as the representatives or the voice of the whole country,,thisis totally wrong...

Back during Khomeyni days, th same people were calling him a murderer...

[imandxb31]

3)The government in Iran was very successful in diverting the financial problems and claim the westerners to be responsible although this is to some extent true (due to the 30 years long general sanctions covering almost all fields) but it is only recently they started to open up and take some blame as well.

Its not a hidden conspiracy that the US, UK, israel, MKO, Monachists...would like the system to be changed and have heavily invested for this purpose (please refer to John Bolton speeches)

[imandxb31]

4)Frankly said, i see the Iranian government(s) as skillful politicians, being able to control the massive war for 8 yars with crude prices low to 7$/B and having survived many plots...

To cut the story short...What happened in Iran was nothing extraordinary...It happens all the time in the world, but in Iran it is labeld as Protest against dictators...in the other scenarios it is labeled as a sign of democracy (anyway, please refer to the recent French Riots, Chinese Uprising, LA revolution..)

[hithlum]

at 4)

true, this is not the first time. A lot of Marxists are saying that its looking like 1917 Russia. Definitely like 1979 Iran.

[imandxb31]

In my oppinion its far different than 1979. In 1979, the whole population was againt the regimewhile at the moment the populations is split.

the 1979 revolution was the fruit of the seed planted in 1963 where about 15000 people were butchered and the opposition were either killed or exiled...

Yet the biggest difference is the unanimity. in 1979 everyone (90%) was behind Khomeyni to overthrow Shah, but now, there is no signle leader, the aims are different and the methods as well...

[hithlum]

1) Well, in 1979, they were only behind Khomeini when the stalinists started supporting him, but there was no leadership initially, like today.

And okay, today the population is split so I might be wrong about the today's revolutionary period being similar to 1979, but in terms of lack of leadership, I think it's the same.

[hithlum]

2) Also, it wasn't the JUST events of 1963 that planted the seeds for 1979, people were being oppressed by British and American imperialism. The Shah was put in place in 1953 through a coup to secure the oil development for the British oil companies and later on American. The people were living under harsh conditions and were fed up of seeing the oil wealth moving away from Iran when the oil fields were on Iranian soil.

[imandxb31]

5) I seriously appologise for the long comment, but to be honest i still feel seriously that nothing has been said, in conditions like this, there are 1000000000 of factors and elements who are worth being considered and avoiding each of them will result in a wrong conclusion.

Bottom line...Iran is evolving within its own frame of refeence (with some internal/external forced fluctuations)

I better shut up now ;)

Take care and Peace

[marsCubed]

When I looked at the protests in Iran recently, What I was concentrating on was clothing.

How were the people dressed?

Because knowing whether they are intellectuals, peasants or workers will tell much about the dynamics of the movement and how it is likely to develop.

peasants make nasty mobs, their demands are generally for land and cult, they push dictators up.

The petty bourgeois tend to corridors of power and tokenism.

workers are the revolutionary dynamite.

we need to see mass strikes.

[hithlum]

I hear you comrade.