The surge level was definitely overpredicted by the model. The prediction was however made some 24 hours before landfall. I believe that Ike lost quite a bit of strength (unexpectedly) just before hitting Galveston. Furthermore, due to the large grid spacing of the model, features like Bolivar Peninsula were not resolved accurately. This may also have led to the overprediction.
Hoi Maarten -
A 9m surge from Ike is way, way high. That would have affected the buildings on Bolivar Peninsula that survived the surge.
keyehaw 3 years ago
The surge level was definitely overpredicted by the model. The prediction was however made some 24 hours before landfall. I believe that Ike lost quite a bit of strength (unexpectedly) just before hitting Galveston. Furthermore, due to the large grid spacing of the model, features like Bolivar Peninsula were not resolved accurately. This may also have led to the overprediction.
MaartenDeltares 3 years ago
Maarten -
Quite possibly. I went there three weeks after Ike and a surprising number of houses seemed to still be there.
See you again at a conference sometime :)
keyehaw 2 years ago
hold on,,,
ringsofwater 3 years ago
its going through my town right now
sk8baker1 3 years ago
idiots who stayed behind: 'you may face certain death" !!!! now you're putting ohers at risk to come save your ass. stupid rednecks.
by2004 3 years ago