Great Recovery Update (October 19/2009)

[MrSkaramanga]

several MORONS out there making vids that believe that we are seeing recovery because of the current rise in the Dow. Of course these people do not understand the stock market is one of the most manipulated institutions there is. Certain "circles" can manipulate the hell out of the market to make it seem like it is doing well. Furthermore, this is not indicative of the real economic situation when all is considered. The ones posting these vids claim to have "degree's in finance" , SCARY!

[TheMetalPerson]

I used to maintain a computer lab in an economics department where economics professors gave lectures to a bunch of uncaring people who want a degree (even more paper). Sometimes they'd come to me and talk about how the math is really hard in that course. Its really hard to take that seriously as an engineering grad. Your math is hard? seriously? lulz. "oh i bet!"

[innefitterosa]

It´s allways hard when a empire start to break a part.

[Lockemeister]

Watch for W recession when the stimulous money runs out. In a few months, the Dow will start dropping. and maybe it's already started. Employment will take years to recover to offset the population growth. employment usually LAGS in recoveries. Economics 101.

[endlessmountain]

How can we use employment as a lagging indicator when this is the first recession we have had in the truth age only 3.2 years before the mayan calendar ends.

[Lockemeister]

I don't put much faith in the Mayan Calender. Besides, It's not ending really, just resetting.

[fgiugliymop]

I guess you noticed most of the increase in profits are coming from the reduction in jobs. The profits will be short term. The buying ability of the general public will continue to erode. I think you can see whats coming!

[fgiugliymop]

your right on D ( follow the money )

[PestControl02]

thank you!

[bshogry]

Gotta bring that dollar value down to match the peso, so they can usher in that Amero.

[Writious]

Watch WAMUed Nation

v=NxGBwExQDdU

[jimbonumber9]

No jobs creation, no "real" economic recovery possible!

[TheMetalPerson]

no pain no gain

[jimbonumber9]

Absolutely!

[iammci]

Inflation is captured in what is not seen. For example, items in the food store you rarely purchase. However, when you purchase, you have no memory of what you've paid for it last.

Rember that since 1913, the USD has decline in value. There is NO data to counter this fact. It's is certain that like any fiat currency in existence, it will ultimately reach it's end value of zero one day.

To get ahead you have to earn more than inflation on the grand scale. Anything less, is losing wealth.

[gow75]

I do have UI

[TheMetalPerson]

We got totally sniped on our comments session. What a horrible time to do a youtube update.

[zgreg427]

some one needs to read a economics book

[MrXSpeaks]

basically the doom mongers have painted themselves in a corner. Now we will see who is really a "truth seeker" and who wants to just be another baloney talking head, like Peter Schill ooops I meant Schiff.

[TheMetalPerson]

We'd be pleasantly surprised if somebody could say "i told you so". That would mean a prosperous economy.

[cdmcl3]

(...good video, and welcome/good comments so far....)

[mcourtmiller]

The Fed will have no choice but to start raising interest rates aggressively. That means all non-dollar assets will crater.

[YouGotTheWord]

Mr X appears to have lots of great information, I can breathe easy now knowing that Obama and Pelosi have everything under control.

[lilbitparanoid]

My prediction is the stock market will continue to go up for a while, but when gold and silver really take off, traders will drop the market like it's hot and jump on the PM bandwagon in a mob like panic, but who knows. Gold and silver are going to be huge, very soon, that much is clear by now. Even my grandparents are beginning to understand what I have been telling them about for the last two years. They still haven't bought any PM yet, but maybe soon, I hope.

[kancerzx]

Can't wait

[thetunnelrat1]

Things are inflating over here!

My electric bill is up 20%!

Our grocery bill has went up by 11%

Soon gas is going to rise because of the recent run up.

Unemployment office sent me a letter to tell me that my rate would be increasing by 5-6% effective 2010!

Sounds to me like you are spreading misinfo MrXspeaks!

[MrXSpeaks]

if you are experiencing inflation maybe you should say where you live and what is going up. My groceries are flat, my electric is flat, gas is flat, I have been renting for several years and my rent actually went down this year. No inflation for me, and no inflation in the national statistics either.

high unemployment puts a damper on inflation.

[MrXSpeaks]

I live in florida by the way.

[MrXSpeaks]

lets dispel some BS, not add to it.

First of all, nothing in the stock or derivatives market is a "guarantee" and if you were a broker and you said that you would lose your license. Stop saying things like "guarantee".

Second, THERE IS NO INFLATION and there has actually been a little bit of deflation over the past year.

Third, stock market and corporate profits recover first, unemployment comes later.

Fourth, inflation will happen when unemployment drops.

[taineasy]

Not sure where you acquired your degree in economics but unemployement is not always a lagging indicator. Once it exceeds 8% and remains there for 4 quarters is can morph to a leading indicator if the rate of hiring for temporary and part time workers is also declining concurrently. This rate has now declined for 11 consecutive months. Now that we have confirmation it is a sure bet that our current and rising interest rate is now a LEADING indicator. 2010 will make 2009 feel like good times.

[MrXSpeaks]

everyone who actually has a degree in economics knows what I am talking about. Unemployment is lagging this time and it usually does.

[TheMetalPerson]

Unemployment may usually be correlated to inflation by the Philips curve, however a correlation does not necessarily spell out causality. Its always possible that another signal or convolution of signals could be the cause of the 2 correlated signals.

Also, if you take the Philips curve as a business owner, you could basically replace the word "unemployment" with "total employee wages" and you'd end up with similar results. Spend more than you have and there's inflation.

[TheMetalPerson]

I could hire every single person in the world if i could either :

a) go into infinite amounts of debt

b) print an infinite amount of rectangular pieces of fibers

[TheMetalPerson]

Most business owners intuitively realize that they'd go out of business really fast with this business model.

Sorry for the triple post.

[THESHADOWATCHER]

My prediction for octobre NOTHING will happen remember the Y2K...

[iloveterriers]

I think people are expecting a "big bang" sort of event, when in fact, economic decline is more of a slow but steady decline.

[TheMetalPerson]

Y2K1 was pretty bad actually. "Will code HTML for food"

[strawjam59]

The dollar index and the silver data are just what they were two years ago before the crash, 75.50 and 17.50 an ounce, nothing has change to prevent a different outcome. what will the Fed do this time?

[tombone3]

I am sick of the medias BS. they dont have the facts.

[pairunoyd]

dude, u subscribed to 420 magazine?

[TilveranNavarre]

25th of October is a Sunday. What drama happens on a Sunday? O.o

[endlessmountain]

a lot actually.  This is when the the big stuff goes down behind the scenes including bear stearns fall.

[TilveranNavarre]

Aha. Papers come out on Sunday. Webbot predicts chatter about an event rather than the event itself, right? So the drama could be on the Saturday after the markets have closed, news come out on the Sunday and then the markets open on the Monday, by which time I will have popcorn.

I hope it's nothing... but I'm ready! :o)

[seabizzy]

But Sunday here is Monday AM in Asia, where the Asian markets have led most recent market action here in the US. Who really knows, but we shall see soon enough

[1pigslayer]

great vid

[harveybirdmannequin]

I'll tell you how hyperinflation in the USA will hit Canada. Canada will suffer greatly short term but relative to other countries will be ok long term.

Canada has a short growing season and imports nearly all of its food from the USA, South America, etc. This is especially true with winter coming. So when food prices skyrocket in the USA so does it in Canada. When the price of oil and distillates skyrocket so will transportation costs. Only exacerbating the food problem.

[harveybirdmannequin]

The only offset for Canada is to sell natural resources abroad. HOWEVER, there are many obstacles to that. It takes a great deal of capital and time to open a mine, start a mill, etc. Canada is very hostile towards business in terms of bureaucracy, taxes, regulations, etc. There are also the environmentalists that do not like the environmental damage. Canada has Native land claims that still have not been settled since 1867.

[harveybirdmannequin]

There is also Quebec where every now and then the separatists raised their heads. Canada does not have the logistics and infrastructure to export abroad because they never invested into thinking USA would always be on top. They would need to invest trillions to upgrade the national infrastructure for cross country transport and the port of Vancouver in order to export to the cash rich Asian nations.

So you see there are huge problems for a Canadian recovery in a world without the USA.

[endlessmountain]

thank you very much for comment on the issue :)

[NibiruMagick2012]

I for one am lookig forward to the light at the end of this long tunnel...( An awake population.).

Peace, Love and Light

[AR15Truther]

Thanks for caring Bro

So hard to predict what will happen.

What events are planned and what events that will happen that aren't expected, and a cascade of events that could happen once other events take place, be prepared for the worst and hope for the best my friends

[smkuhner]

nice video derek! as always love the sarcasm

[link2randle]

Called Jobless Recovery... What will you be saying in the next six months when we are testing all time highs. Quit going against the grain and make some money, go long. ..

[DavidAKZ]

All time highs with all time inflated (increasingly worthless) dollars. Gold reaches new lows in Australia tinyurlDOTcom / l2e4m8

[endlessmountain]

it will never make all time highs inflation adjusted.. At least not for a heck of a long time.

[TheMetalPerson]

There will never be another time in history where the US will use as much energy as it did in 2008. We can't go back there now. Service based economy my ass!

Nobody needs our under-producing services.

[gow75]

derek where are you receiving the web bot info?

[AR15Truther]

user/webbotproject

[UpTick21]

I totally agree . . . I am still on the sidelines for US stocks. All of my money is overseas, and I am using tight stops.

[TheMetalPerson]

invest where the factories are going.

[UpTick21]

Good thinking!

[gow75]

I am out of a job since feb of this year i worked for 3months as a consultant that is it. no phone calls nothing. I am sick of the medias BS. they dont have the facts.

[TheMetalPerson]

You should have worked as an employee so you could reap the benefits of unemployment insurance. :p

If only they told you beforehand, right?

[catdog262]

The Web -Bot Rules !

[Eraser7622]

Exciting.. we shouldn't put too much emphasis on the 25th just because it is so specific that the odds of something big are actually quite small, other than the fact that that day has been singled out by webbot, Celente, etc. It sure is fun to speculate either way!

Thanks Derek