Solar Cycle 24: The Wait Continues

[killerbee04x]

IT IS NOT EXPECTED....IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THAT IS WHY NASA SAID ANYTHING. THEY AREN'T TO STUCK UP TO WARN PEOPLE. JUST PERPARE. IF THE ECONOMY DOESN'T GET YOU THINKING. THEN JUST DIE OFF PLZ. SAY ME THE TIME OF KILLING YOU BECAUSE YOU TRY TO STEAL MY STUFF. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DON'T SELL YOUR KIDS FOR FOOD/water or anything. just prepare. ok OK

[killerbee04x]

Reminds me of THE MOVIE FREQUENCY. WHERE YOU CAN TALK TO PEOPLE BACK IN TIME.

[GoCo77]

This is heavy on drama and light on information

[MattExzy]

@GoCo77 The sun is rather dramatic!

[david222444]

@GoCo77 Just like the greenhouse theory.

[sonicgsxr750]

@GoCo77 go on Space weather.com look at the archives, 99% of the stuff on you tube is bullshit, i use rf signals on a daily basis and have done since the end of the 1970's, i have studied the solar cycle min through max ever since

[23565120]

Greenhouse effect...Global Warming...Terrorist Attacks... Keep them a little bit frightened - and you'll keep them in line.

Got to find something to replace the "Commie" threat now the cold war is over!

Otherwise people might look up and want REAL power over their own lives WOAH!

[wayne487msc]

We are in what appears to be a repeat Dalton minimum. If the sunspots wink out in 2015 or so, then this may morph into a Maunder like minimum that will make Earth get very cold for the next several decades. This allows more cosmic rays to hit the upper atmosphere leading to a significant increase in clouds and more cooling. The greenhouse effect appears to be nothing more than skyshine!

[spyer22]

so let me ask, is shortwave better with sunspots or without?

[MattExzy]

@spyer22 It can depend on a lot of factors, like geomagnetic stuff. It depends on which layers in the ionosphere get 'turned on' by the suns radiation. With more activity now, it definitely has an affect, usually for the better with openings on different bands.

[sonicgsxr750]

@spyer22 doesnt really matter, i have used 14mhz at night uk to melbourne australia for a perfect contact and also the same frequency to converse with tasmania the same night, the spoty count wasnt even over 10, but the flux was 110, the contacts where made from a car and using 100w pep into a shortened monobad antenna, but mainly its down to the f layer, the d layer has night time absorbtion and is use full for lower than 7mhz contacts, also try the ARRL for info

[rorypebs]

NICE

[Kostly]

I'm noticing a difference in the size, brightness and temperature of the sun this summer. I really notice the difference just before dusk. The sun seems twice the size as it was when this was posted and throwing a lot more heat. We're well into it, I think...

[raptor731]

Well made. Look up the book 'The Chilling Stars'. Sun acts as a shield to cosmic rays. Rays generate muons which seed clouds. If Sun activity is low (sun lowers shield), rays get through and excessive clouds are created...the Earth cools viciously. Ice age, anyone?

[marginallymental]

Fantastic vid---very spy-thriller. Why don't other people get how cool science is? They could take a lesson from this video. More!

[JohnnyX50]

at 1.55 the peak of the graph seems to coincide with the end of mankind in december 2012!! is that just a coincidence or what !! lol

Im beginning to think I live in a faraday cage or Mansfield has a radio shield round it cos I never seem to pick owt good up, the buzzer gets a bit boring after a few seconds lol

[dirkdigla1914]

What the hell was that, that shot across the the bottom of the sun, and stayed in tact?!!!!! O it might have been superman man flying through for a quick tan.

[drkstrong]

@dirkdigla1914

A planet, probably Venus or Jupiter. It looks odd because it is so bright compared to the solar corona it sturates the CCD camera and it overflows the charge into the adjacent pixels.

The SOHO LASCO CCD is oriented E-W so that is the direction the smear occurs.

[kherse14]

lol wtf is solar cycle ...

[kherse14]

at 0:58 - 1:00 where is that RPG missile came from? Lol

[SWL1409]

@kherse14 lmfao, it's a comet, not a RPG missile...

[maxiboy666]

I don't think we are on the verge of a Dalton or even a Maunder Minimum but I do think we are in for a definite period of global cooling. But if we do get another Maunder better get the cave well stocked!

[Brantoc]

cycle 24 is just barely beginning, only 2.5 years later than expected.. Cycle 24 should be a weak and long cycle if history is a guide.

[SWL1409]

Great video, and today we have 42 sunspots !

[MattExzy]

Probably explains why last night I was picking up ship to shore shortwave phone links with the built-in antenna indoors, bring it on baby.

[SWL1409]

And me number station E25 with the built-in antenna too.

[STEVEDIGIBOYtv]

@SWL1409

Not according to SOHO, not sure what your thinking but specs do not equate to "sun spots" LOL! Hopefully the actual regular spots of max 24 will arrive soon. Ham radio guys need to look at the actual data published every day.

[Warhead3000]

@SWL1409

And for the last month or 2 we have had a toal of 10, not really picking up is it, with about 15+ days with none

[SWL1409]

@Warhead3000 Yes, the Sun is very strange during those month, 1 day you can see 40 sunspots, another day you see 12 sunspots... I don't really understand what the Sun is doing!

[ElronOne]

The quiescent sun was the quiet before the storm.

Michio Kaku said that all the scientists now admit

that Solar Max 24 will be 20 times more powerful

than the most powerful on record.

Perhaps it will be an extiction event :)

I just hope it will be very selective and take out

all the scientists who falsified the

data to get us to believe in Global Warming.

[SWL1409]

@ElronOne It's obvious that the Sun will wake up! Today the Sun is sleeping!

[BrainDeadRepublican]

/watch?v=Cl4Pz1mwBao

[x11115]

our scientist really know very little about global warming or what causes it. they use complex models to explain complicated theory's but at this point they are just pushing scientific research to get more funding. I honestly think global warming is solely caused by the sun and man's carbon footprint has very little baring on the long term temperatures on earth. you might get a few degrees fluctuation but the sun's cycles are what causes it and position of the earth to the sun.

[MattExzy]

A good argument, there's lots of factors that affect climate. Although I'm wondering, the Sun is at it's quietest in some time, but Arctic ice is melting increasingly fast. But then again, Mars is warming too (or so I've heard). All very confusing..

[Brantoc]

No it's not.. since the low in 2007, the sea ice in the arctic has come back strong, and even in 2007 if you count north and south it was at record high levels.

To quote Al Gore "Weather is not climate"

In 1957 and in 1963 there was only limited ice at the poles. There is a famous photo with signatures of 3 sub captains that meet without breaking any ice at the pole.

In 1971? The HMS Dreadnaught surfaced 9 times in ice less than 2 feet thick. at and around the pole.

[HvensFury]

x11115 The Arctic is not melting. They are showing you select footage of the summer when there is actual melting that is required so that the animals that feed on sea creature have access to their food source. Arctic Ice pack has increased in depth as well as density. There are 24 solar cycles. 12 year periods. We have just entered the 24th one that is the coldest one. Expect temps 30 degrees colder than anything on record when we're through. God is in charge, the cycles of nature are set.

[STEVEDIGIBOYtv]

When the storms of spots begin that is when the you know what may hit da fan. Now it's just a big glowing ember.

[MattExzy]

That's when I'll run for the hills!

[STEVEDIGIBOYtv]

That may be why so many are digging into them! hollywierd and con-man propagandist made "Knowing" with Nick Cage. To scare people into prozac consumers! LOL! swine flu had "I am legend" after all to prep us for vaccines no?

[azranchgal45]

hummmmm Calm before the storm?

[NEOagainstSystem]

Solar cycle 23 still is ongoing and till now it's 13,5 years long 2.5 above average what is very uncommon and didn't happened hundreds of years. I think Day After Tommorow or new 2012 movie is no longer sci-fi but rather sci-fact

[alkatifa04]

how's so?

[PonguigPeopinn]

stfu moron

[NEOagainstSystem]

stfu retard

[ICOM2957]

I was talking with a friend tonight and mentioned propfire for firefox. I brought it up to demonstrate it and saw a solar flux of 81! I almost fell out of my seat!

[Michaelwiseguy]

NO SUNSPOTS FOR ANYONE ON THIS PLANET TILL THE PESKY HUMANS LEARN A LESSON THEY WILL NEVER FORGET. THE SUN CONTROLS THE EARTH'S CLIMATE, NOT THE PESKY INHABITANTS AND THEIR CO2! Enslaving the world because of CO2 makes no sense. You will continue to be made colder till you abandon the notion of man-made global warming. NO SUNSPOTS FOR YOU. This message conveyed on behalf of the higher powers of the universe.

[deeprock2009]

Got a nice new celestron 8" to observe the sun and its activity a couple of months back. Since then I have made one video of the sun with nothing. It is just so quite every day. Thank God for the clouds in the video moving, Perhaps activity will begin to increase soon....I hope.

Nice video.

[perkler2006]

i like the video esp the music u chose!! thanks. its aug 27th and 47 days no spot. i think we may hav another dalton min what do u think?

[MattExzy]

Heh he, thanks. I remember people got excited about that one about 47 days ago - it's in fact extremely low solar activity and nothing really since.

[TizzersFoxchase]

cycle 24 is not expected to be quite the ripper anymore, current predictions range from 50-90 sunspots at max, a number that continues to drop the longer we go with few to no sunspots. Currently its august 2009 and 30 days straight with no sunspots.... this video was made in 2007... we are still without a cycle 24 getting going.... I think the filmmakers disclaimer about no climate related argument is now moot.

[MattExzy]

Mmm, I think September last year I made it. Sure there may be some fluctuation in climate, but I'm more or less hinting carbon emissions are for average changes, not short term warming... Unless we have another Maunder Minimum, then we'd get cooling :P

[ICOM2957]

Hi Matt, Awesome videos. Actually there does appear to be a cooling trend. I don't think were in for a maunder type cycle but not a ripper.

[muzziwuzzi92]

I like the big 'you are here' [rock bottom] sunspot count from Hathaway...

and we have all remained here :[

did i do something wrong? maybe if they just moved the arrow to the top once in awhile that would sort out everything...?!

i doubt it works like that because they drew a big cycle for 24 and the sun decided to do the complete opposite.

just to be safe someone pls get the old prediction and draw and big 'you are here' arrow to the top.

it's so crazy it might just [not] work :]

[playmarto]

Yeah I do agree these crazy new age hippie's seem to kave taken over the show?.

[funker42]

You know Belarus is a country and not some made up god? Ergo, the voice of Belarus is not a voice in someone's head but a radio station for the quasi-communist country over by Poland and Russia.

[playmarto]

If you're gonna make a vid about solar cycle 24 it might be an idea to give new commers an idea about what you are talking. I have no idea what it is or even what a sun spot is????.

[MattExzy]

I do apologize.. I didn't actually expect it to get to 6000 views, I was more or less making it for people who may already know about such things. Amateur radio people are interested in the sunspot count - they were my target audience. To make it for a broader audience, it would have to go twice as long and be hard to follow in this format. A lot of cycle 24 stuff seems to be geared towards "new age" rubbish, I actually thought this was relatively factual ;)

[playmarto]

ok thank you for your reply.

[xXxmidgexXx]

Yo! Whats your editing software? My windows movie maker screws everything up when i save my vdeio! thanks!

[MattExzy]

On a Mac, just with iMovie! I think Movie Maker is much the same, but I haven't really tried using it before lol

[matkovicha]

This is kinda weird, but my hard drive speaker just beeped REALLY LOUD.

[FreedomHooter]

Sun spots weak, some hot peak

[rollsthepaul]

This is all human theory, that the heliosphere protects the Earth, etc. NASA is still saying that the Sun reverses magnetic fields every 11 years when their own probe Ulysses proved this theory wrong. The S Pole of Planet X is pointed toward the Sun, and is an intake, not blowing outward like the magnetic N Pole of a magnetic planet. THIS is the cause of the placid no-sunspot surface of the Sun, and it is harmless.

[DeVipressZephoria]

My choice: Believe some random person on YouTube, Believe NASA.Which do YOU think we are going to believe. Why do people like you waste their time?

[pw3uk]

BTW, this lack of spots is my bread and butter. Means I can study convection flows on a quiet Sun.

That's when the data is made available.... ;)

[MattExzy]

Interesting stuff!

Poor old Sun, I guess we all can't be satisfied at the same time with it. It's either too loud or too quiet!

I just want the shortwave bands to liven up :P

Actually this evening I'm getting telephone-sounding conversations in Arabic from some place on 8436kHz, so it's not too bad just the same.

[pw3uk]

The guy I work for recently had published a paper that reviews all the different models of the next solar cycle. The models cover the whole range of predictions to very strong to zero! It seems *someone* will be right, but with such a coverage of predictions, someone is *bound* to be right thus giving no real credence to the model. Hence we have to wait for a range of cycles before one can make accurate predictions.

Anyway the high latitude spots have arrived a while back so we're indeed in 24

[conrailcliff]

yeah they canseled the sun spots in agust

[k4kyv]

We could be entering another Maunder Minimum, like the one from from 1645 to 1715, when sunspots became exceedingly rare. But as of yet, the period of quiet sun has not exceeded the normal range of quiet periods observed at minima since statistics have been kept over the past couple of centuries or so.

[VictoreCelia]

good video...

[OH2FFY]

Nice little video.

A couple of points though.

Signals aren't reflected by the ionosphere , they are refracted.

Refraction involves a progressive change in direction of the signal.

Also there is at this time, a number of differing predictions regarding the next cycle.

Some scientists are saying the next one will be a real awesome one , the best in ages , others are saying that it will be the most disappointing cycle in most peoples memory.

Other still are claiming a normal cycle.

contd -->

[OH2FFY]

We of course hope for the best but we should prepare for the worst.

This means optimizing our station by using low noise antennas and radios that are very good performers.

This applies to SWL + HAM radio operators alike.

The days of being able to throw any old wire antenna into a tree and work the world with a cheap portable is over.

Google for my SW site - SWDXER will help many understand these topics more fully.

Regards

gregW:-)

**See my Ham radio video on YouTube**

[MattExzy]

Cheers, I'll make those adjustments. Are you saying I need to upgrade my 'ol faithful random wire? ;) I actually picked up a ham on 40 meters from Russia a few months ago, there's the odd sporadic opening every now and then.

[OH2FFY]

Random wire antennas were fine in the old days when there was little man made RF noise on the bands.

Even very weak signals could be copied well even on primitive tube radios.

Nowadays we have RFI of ALL sorts around the home and in the metro areas.

Combined with low propagation , often many people tune across the band and hear nothing , or at least nothing clear.

Sadly , many SWL'rs have abandoned the hobby because of this apparent lack of HF radio activity.

Cont'd -->

[OH2FFY]

By choosing a more advanced antennas we can lower the noise floor and increase gain.

It takes some work , but well worth the effort for the antenna experimenting SWL.

My normal antenna is a magnetic loop antenna.

With a wire antenna I have a S7 or more of noise and no stations heard, with the loop I have S1 of noise and lots of stations to hear.

If I had had kept to the common idea that longwires are best I would have given up by now.

Regards

gregW:-)

**See my Ham radio video on YouTube**

[betomiyazaki]

it could be in your QTH , south hemisphere

here in north hemisphere I have good propagation, 2 weeks ago i received with 44444

on SINPO code rating to Radio Free Asia via Saipan

73's from México

[jstrunck]

I hope so! I am having HF commo withdrawal overhere!

Take Care,

John

[MattExzy]

Heh heh thanks! All we can do is sit tight.