WeatherAction Extreme Events for July 2009

[HGSpaceTime]

I love this guy but he puts me to sleep.

[FrogJacuzzi]

WES emailed me. "you are saying a low level of 'poison' is not dangerous because it can never reach a dangerous level!??

how stupid are you?"

I'd tried saying, CO2 alarm isn't about toxicity but its supposed effect on radiative forcing. If he worries about toxicity that's a separate issue (and he's alone), but when did zealots separate issues?

It's the 3rd or 4th time he's said, "How stupid are you?" I could ask the same but I DON'T.

I object to his anger. His IQ is for readers to judge.

[FrogJacuzzi]

Arguing with WES5578 is pointless. He has astoundingly poor comprehension. I suggested that Corbyn's archived forecasts compared favourably with the met office's actual weather archives. His response? "apply the same criteria to the met office and you have to agree they are also 85% correct."

Eh? I would hope 100% on the past, chum.

I don't think you're a conspirator WES. I think you're an angry twit / twut / twot / something like that. Read more. Type less.

[WES5578]

your a gullible idiot...

[gtsou]

@WES5578

You must work for the Metoffice. How about you spend less time trying to knock down Piers Corbyn and more time doing your job. Maybe then the Metoffice would get something write for a change. And sorry but 35-40deg in south med is not a heatwave. a heat wave in the south med is above 40-42deg.

[WES5578]

@gtsou

Yep, of course ,never criticize a psychic or self proclaimed scientist otherwise people are a spy or work for the government..typical.

He makes predictions so he has to prove them..that's science.

Just like the metoffice has to prove it.

Why isn't it allowed to check his predictions?

Is he the weather messiah in which you want to believe and can't accept my critisism ?

He laughs at the metoffice,so why not at him?

and his success rate is terrible...check it every month.

please..

[FrogJacuzzi]

By the way WES his predictions are checked by many including the met office. I asked you if the climate audit on his own website was a forgery and, like someone who can't be bothered to read it, you just didn't respond. What is this bizarre claim that the met office aren't 'allowed' to check his predictions?

Do you ONLY watch videos? The met office claim 60% accuracy on their own seasonal forecasts. I agree. Corbyn claims 85%. I agree. And it is not HIS figure...

[FrogJacuzzi]

Click on 'View all' to see the actual order of that conversation. I did not intend the order of those comments or their prominence.

Further comments on the video itself, anyone? I'm looking waaay too over-vocal! Not to mention sliding off-topic

Constructive advice on production quality is a good subject.

I reckon.

[FrogJacuzzi]

I don't think an ordered list of comments is conducive to constructive debate. For instance on Facebook, discussion groups are better than walls. Otherwise everyone sees the last opinion only and they feel they have to respond -- often with anger and frustration.

Global warming is prominent in everyone's minds I'm sure, since Corbyn is a denier. As am I.

For a formal audio debate on the statement, "Global Warming Is Not A Crisis", type NPR climate debate into Google.

Should be kill or cure....

[FrogJacuzzi]

I am a firm believer in his technique and his results and I am highly embarrassed by the production quality.

[WES5578]

@FrogJacuzzi

you obviously don't check his results with the same rutlessness as you do wih the metoffice...

[FrogJacuzzi]

I check neither one with ruthlessness and do not claim to.

[FrogJacuzzi]

I wish the production would improve at a less gradual rate. People underestimate the difficulty of achieving the slickness they're used to. In particular, multiple takes would improve it greatly. But then he is a busy man.

Consider how old Doctor Who suffered from using so few takes!

I can't defend this case to the hilt. I am surprised how bad the sound production is and they really should use direct computer graphics with less live action.

[wtluke]

No idea of the accuracy, though I find it fascinating his comments about the Met Office being apparently useless. You'd gain far greater credibility if you a) learned how to spell properly and b) had something a bit more modern than crinkly, crappy wall chart of a map. And all that traffic noise just makes you look like an amateur with a bone to pick.

Yes, you're a scientist, and your stats and findings should speak for themselves, but you're hardly helping yourself.

[FrogJacuzzi]

WES5578 it is difficult to intuit his accuracy. I disagree with your criteria for success, particularly that flooding should happen wherever he predicts heavy rain.

His most detailed predictions are for the UK. I live in the UK. He is stunningly accurate and succeeds wheer the met office fails; this is also only a humble opinion and not a statistical analysis.

[WES5578]

@FrogJacuzzi

apply the same criteria to the met office and you have to agree they are also 85% correct.

when he predicts flooding and death and destruction you expect exactly that ,a low pressure area with heavy rain is NOT good enough..

it's impossible to predict weather more than 5 days in the future.

the variables are to great...

[FrogJacuzzi]

The met are NOT 85% accurate on seasonal forecasting. BBQ summer in UK? Only Corbyn predicted 2 months of wet!

There is indeed a 5.5 day rule. Even with Star Trek technology, weather that is only caused by other weather could only be predicted for 6 days. HOWEVER there are external driving forces! The 11 yr solar cycle has an effect that is periodic over 22 yrs and the solar system drifts through the galaxy, causing periodic 100,000 yr ice ages. You know all this I'm sure; please think more!

[FrogJacuzzi]

Generally, the longer the timescale, the more we are looking at large-scale, periodic changes. There is still some chaos.

The sun is chaotic. The formation of spiral arms in the galaxy is chaotic. But your 5.5 day rule is not appropriate.

Consider the most extreme case; in 6 billion years there will be no weather!

[FrogJacuzzi]

Also, please bare in mind that deleting your own post does not delete the email sent to me because my post was replied to; this contains your full text. I do not mind because I can filter YouTube emails, but I will still know what you said!

[WES5578]

no major storm in the east pacific...

no prediction of flooding in eastern europe..

several people killed,not important enough?

heat wave southern europe not predicted..

he is 80% right?

well...not in a million years.

[Vegetaownage]

Its interesting though even if he was wrong about those, that just today scientist are talking about El Nino weather starting now.

[WES5578]

uhm...so?

it only means the colder period is coming to an end and droughts will come back like it always does during el nino.

[WES5578]

NO storm east of the phillipines on 6-8 july period ...

in this period it's a no brainer to predict storms in the eastern asia area.

DUH!

[WES5578]

NO floodings in alaska 6-8 july...

NO floodings in se-australia...6-8 july

wonder how he is going to explain this...and how he is going to sell this as a successful prediction.

85% ...yeah right...

the floodings in germany did't he predict.

what's the use of these video's if he can't predict the extremes in weather?

he is nothing more than a psychic who is occasional right.

lots of people see only the correct predictions,the wrong ones they forget...

[FrogJacuzzi]

OR you only see his failures due to YOUR preconceptions? (Which are barely concealed. You know his AGW position perhaps?)

Are you saying that the audit covering letter on his website is a forgery? I am inclined to believe it.

His technique goes public in October.

[WES5578]

@FrogJacuzzi

look at the facts..i showed you his total lack of succes this month,other months i did not check but i saw earlier his lack of succes.

if you think you can prove otherwise,please..

he also predicted a 'death and destruction' typhoon in the west pacific end of july,where is it?

when the uk metoffice is this wrong he calles them amateurs..

but check his predictions yourself.

can't believe you have the nerve to say i have preconceptions,everything i claim you can check.

[FrogJacuzzi]

Sorry but everyone has preconceptions and prejudices! If you are unbiased you are truly amazing! Can you overturn your prejudices though?

My own prejudices are that global warming would be good, but cooling is happening now, and that no significant *global* climate-change is man-made. Locally around cities and at ground level, maybe.

So what are your prejudices? I believe in stating them.

[FrogJacuzzi]

You 'showed' me nothing I'm afraid. I'm all for climate debate but can't promise commitment because it is not the research I am paid for.

As I say, our researches into particular events that may or may not have occurred do not constitute a statistical analysis.

As a statistician, I do find it offensive to be told that my job is easy. As in, "you only have to look at his predictions...easy"

I don't think such anger is appropriate just because I don't accept your claims.

[WES5578]

so you know the met is wrong because they predicted a warm summer but piers is right because none of his predictions of july is correct...

please show me wich predictions were right...

otherwise...if you accept his successes but deny his failures you are a worthless statistician i am afraid...

talking about preconceptions..yes i am anoyd of people like you who think he is right because you agree with his methods but never ever check his results.

[FrogJacuzzi]

The stunningly accurate ones that I know about are his predictions for the UK. Check his archive. Check the met office archives of what happened. I'm not doing it for you.

If you read more carefully you will understand that this is not the research I am paid to do and I do not have time to post as many times a day as you do.

[FrogJacuzzi]

Worthless? Cheers mate!

I told you my own judgement is a humble opinion & not a statistical analysis any more than yours is. I have other work - which PAYS!

Why should it be up to me to show you? Because I dared present an alternative view?

I think you should read more & type less. I barely have time for this, without repeating points that you missed before & still won't read!

Listen to that debate I posted. It is much better than ours.

[WES5578]

@FrogJacuzzi

global warming good???

get real.

poles melting,heat waves,floodings,more and more failed crops,and this is good?!

my country has more and more flash floods,wich in the past almost never happened,now every few weeks in summer the south has local

flash floods,not like india but for us it's strange.

la nina is resposible foor a cool down,el nino is coming and will reverse the cooling.

this the scientists know for a long time.

this is a fact.

not preconceptions..

[FrogJacuzzi]

Warmer Earth has always been better for life; check the fossil record. Cooling is devastating. Storms outside tropics are driven by temperature difference between the poles and equator, which is less is a warmer world.

Regarding floods:

Bad building & drainage & multiple other explanations. I don't have space to list them. OR TIME.

+ If it bleeds it leads.

You can believe what you like on global warming. Even call it fact. In THIS discussion it is a preconception. You know Corbyn's position!

[FrogJacuzzi]

Natural climate change always happens. Cooling is devastating for life & warming is good. Cooling would be worse now & warming better since humans are here. If we can stop climate change & if it conflicts with other goals, which to do is a crisis. We can't stop climate change. Policies designed to stop global warming DO conflict with other interests. They're harming the most threatened species & poorest people. They're least harmful, even beneficial, to us. That goes for your energy bill too!

[FrogJacuzzi]

Warming peaked in 1998 & cooling will continue till at least 2030, fluctuating but remaining cold for 100 years. The overdue (by millenia) 90,000 year, deep ice age could hit any time from now till many millenia hence & at worst could glaciate the northern hemisphere within decades from the first warning we have of it. How to adapt to such extreme climate change will be a crisis. There is no crisis yet. Humanity will survive the next ice age in better shape than last time.

[FrogJacuzzi]

We will fight nature to help other species do the same. It will still be devastating. We will be the best thing for nature. So far we've not been since our presence has caused 1 of the fastest mass extinctions. The problems we cause are many as are the solutions we require. We are the most valuable species if we did have to choose. The 2nd biggest crisis is poverty. 1st is the cold war, which continues.

Just a few preconceptions I bring to the debate. I believe in stating them. Surprisingly.

[tdebat]

good video quality, need to add a remote mic on Piers to improve the audio.

the weather forcast, I'll be watching to see how good it is?

[inggo818]

Thanks for the info. How accurate is this prediction? I'm gonna get married around mid July and from the looks of this prediction, it's gonna be a wet one. :(

[scyren1]

Thanks for the info. You're awesome!