Pitfalls of Thinking: Confirmation Bias (1/2)

[mark0s3000]

Conspiracy theorists desperately seek support for their claims. They can get very creative.

[Laughingblades]

Hehehe this topic has interested me for years.

[pythor2]

I think you misspelled "argyria" at 4:28

[finderfinder100]

Who wants to be turned into a smurf? I don't think that is a risk i would want to take.

[slmrcs]

If you want to make a video about confirmation bias, and critical thinking, then the point should be made that such errors in thinking are independent, from whatever the topic is. Basically, being correct about a belief, does not mean one has arrived at the conclusions correctly. Your implication is that people believe in alt health because they are using poor reasoning, but conventional medicine is correct reasoning?

[mrjedidja]

@slmrcs The same applies to conventional medicine too. The only difference is that conventional treatments are proven, so it's likely that treatment will have real effects, though you can never know.

[Kuymal]

I think it might also be the case that confirmation bias can affect the structure of a test intended to confirm/falsify a given hypothesis. For years, studies showed that dogs had no sense of "self" by testing a dog's reaction to a mirror. The error was that the mirror is based on sight trumping sound/smell, not true in dogs. Ditto on early studies on canine color vision.The assumption was dogs didn't have it ( they do, just not as good as ours).

[JinMakkto]

Oh C0nnie, that quote at 2:08 is beautiful.

"Once you start looking for it, you'll find confirmation bias in all sorts of places."

[seeqer66]

I use colloidal silver, chiropractors, vitamins (not mega-doses) and herbal medicine. All of these things have made real improvements in my health.

Chiropractors work great for fixing a bad back or neck.

If you use colloidal silver, as you would use an anti-biotic, it's harmless. In other words, don't take it every day with your vitamins. It works too.

Willow Bark Tea will get rid of a headache faster than anything on the market.

Yohimbe Bark works for ED.

[0871356005]

Knowing about confirmation bias is hugely important for todays world due to the various forms of media like the newspaper, internet, tv etc and i think there should be alot more emphasis on educating the topic like having it in science text books or make it compulsory in school. i say this because in recent years i have been using the internet as a source of most of information and i have had a recent interest in conspiracy theories. the most important thing is knowing the facts. great upload.

[kyebean]

A lot of your videos apply to my mother, she is pretty obsessed about alt med and alarmist, beliefs. She even became a chapter leader of the Weston A. Price foundation, which I'd love to see a vid on. I try to have rational discussions with her, but it always gets down to her saying things like "I don't believe in right and wrong" "I don't decide things your way, by evidence and analyzing, I know things in my body (instincts)" recently I actually got her to say "I'm not interested in reality".

[prophetchannel]

I think most alternative medicine has a basis in a grain of truth, but that this grain is taken out of context and blown out of proportion.

[sarcleaeolist]

Thank you for constantly pointing out that science never proves anything true so much as it hasn't proved it false yet. I really wish some of the U.S.A. would catch on and understand the importance of uncertainty and doubt when it comes to science and scientific discoveries. The videos are greatly enjoyable.

[every116]

The only thing I hate about your videos is that it takes 15 minutes to watch a 10-minute video because you have to stop and read all of it or you'll miss important (or humorous) information.

[vervegrande]

Who were these 100 people? Is an all cooked diet better, perhaps you would say a mixed diet is best. Humans are the only animals that use a kitchen. Maybe our whole culture is based on confirmation bias. Science is new to the game. I'm not against it, but we have survived for millions of years this way. Anyway, interesting video!

[ddemonicflame]

Why am I not subscribed to you?

My error has been corrected.

[toppinzr]

Colloidal silver does actually work as an antibiotic, something you don't mention.

[C0nc0rdance]

@toppinzr

Topically ONLY, and it does so by non-specific heavy metal toxicity. Uranium, Lead and Mercury work just as well.

[toppinzr]

@C0nc0rdance Better blue than radioactive or retarded.

Silver was used as a germicide before antibiotics came along. It kills bacteria in vitro. I found something online saying it makes one's immune system go into overdrive, trying to eliminate the silver. These alternative cures often have some element of truth.  Maybe putting the immune system into overdrive is beneficial in some ways.

The truth is more nuanced than just "people fooling themselves".

[Darkstar1484]

@toppinzr it's more that heavy metals are toxic. Bacteria is also organic, if I am correct and I might not be, colloidal silver can be provided in amounts that would make a person only mildly sick but kill bacteria. the issue of course is buildup of heavy metals in the body.

[xanaxkamikaze]

Real information is rare. Thank you sir!

[weildkorp]

You are a prominent, well spoken speaker. I believe you could sell corn products to any entropy(ed) american in any emergency center (in the states anyhow). So I will review, study and memorize your tone, borrow sources from cnn and fox. And I will have the ability to have all the power to convince an angus calf that not only should the information be considered important (and be heard),

[Broodsugar]

Where is part 2?

[RazielKain]

Actually

The fact that wakefield was paid to do the study for one side doesn't interest me that much - Doesn't matter how or why you get results the results matters

The thing that proves that it is complete and utter BS is that he had a sample size of 12 and took blood illegally from children....

[Ogre2011]

Excellent, thank you for this information...

[SPACKlick]

The fact you say "when you look for this...you will find many examples of it" about examples of confirmation bias, is asking for a confirmation bias in the search of conformation bias...

Irony win

[TedDGPoulos]

. . "I believe that in order to make real progress one must again ferret out
some general principle of nature." - Albert Einstein 1952 . The known universe 14,000,000,000 BCE . Earth
5,000,000,000 BCE . Homo sapiens
300,000 BCE . Fire (applied)
200,000 BCE . The underlying law of nature (discovered & applied) 2003 CE .

[tctheunbeliever]

I've found that I experience nausea whenever I see Kevin Trudeau's face, or sometimes just his name, but it passes as soon as he disappears. Is this a reverse placebo effect?

[D119heavy]

Colloidal silver users and the rest of the "alternative medicine" scene people base their arguments and opinions on a point that is post hoc ergo propter hoc, ie "I felt sick, took silver and then I felt better 2 weeks later, therefore the silver caused me to feel better" or some such nonsense, and think its valid

i still cant believe people pay chiropractors for anything, but then again some people pay for horoscopes so I guess its not that far-fetched

[shaneho78]

"If a man is offered a fact that goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something that affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence" Bertrand Russell

[HRRyan2]

i think everyone going through high school should be required to take an elementary statistics course. Here they can learn this sort of hypothesis testing. It really opens your eyes.

[lazyperfectionist1]

Personally, given how simple the average logical fallacy is, how easy it is to develop the skill for detecting it, and the utility of such a skill, wouldn't it be better to have all high school students take a logic course?

[HRRyan2]

well, I've taken a course in logic, and while it was informative and helpful, I did not find the material nearly as useful as my statistics courses. The concepts of hypothesis testing with a null hypothesis are stressed in statistics courses. I'm not saying logic wouldn't be a good course to take also. There are many courses that I think high school students should take. Statistics just happens to be one that I think would be most useful =).

[C0nc0rdance]

I have to agree with HR. Formal logic as taught in college is a bit more specialized. I took one course in statistics to substitute for a fifth semester of Calculus, and I learned so very much useful info about how to think.

We need a course called: Critical Thinking. There are all these tools that people need to get through this world, and I think it would be good to give them these skills by junior high, while they still have the natural ability to question.

[mlpoulter]

@C0nc0rdance Agree: I've taught formal logic, and it disappoints students that it doesn't really help with critical thinking. The two things that would help are Bayesian statistics (not "null hypothesis") and some psychology (so that people understand and compensate for their own biases). The education system isn't doing this, so it falls to Youtube contributors to fill the gap.

BTW, as the main author of the WIkipedia article, I'm pleased to see this video bringing some of the material to life.

[octarhaberee]

The colloidal silver example reminds me of being in car of a family of believers when I was a child- back in the days of carburetors and starting problems due to "flooding". The car wouldn't start so the mother had everyone bow their heads and close their eyes and pray that God would let the car start on the next try.

Of course after the long pause and the problem had taken care of itself the mom was able to start the car up - Oh the power of prayer!

[WKaliberr]

great video

[Deathinmusic]

This is great stuff, but there is too much additional information in the video, which makes it necessary to keep pausing in order to get all of it.

[Ezplain]

dude this is some interesting psychological analysis. In english we were talking about other nations and i wrote an essay on the illusion of objectivity and knowledge which alters our thinking so prevalently anyone wants to read it just ask me its along the same lines of this video. Something akin to extreme chavanistic nationlism.

[ndjarnag]

Often I see a video called "the pH diet" which claims to cure cancer. It's nothing but an infomercial for folks dealing with cancer. It's discusting.

So this COncOrdance video is a welcome response.

[Animavore]

Cheers for this video. I saw Lorraine Day on T.V. one tipsy night in a friend's house and being a sceptical sort I told my self I must investigate in the morning.

Of course, in the morning I had totally forgotten her name. My head was suitably wrecked.

Of course I knew she was full of nonsense but I wanted to delve a bit deeper.

Great vid too. Cheers.

[geminyo]

Zeus bless you!

[NotJames1]

I like what you wrote at 1:49

[caligulaincarnate]

And may Thor bless you too.

[charkopolis]

C0nc0rdance and AntiCitizenX should team up and make video!

[caligulaincarnate]

You just looked like a fool.

[jesse0192]

Your videos are brilliant, concordance. You -are- the brightest crayon in the box.

[aeroeng314]

Colloidal silver?  Whatever made you decide to use that as an example? I mean that sarcastically, I've been following the thread on LoR for the lulz.

[C0nc0rdance]

I did copy the definition from Wikipedia. The page it's taken from is also shown in the video. Do you have an alternate definition you prefer?

I did ask for a specific instance, and I notice you have not provided one. Does that mean you don't have anything specific to illustrate your assertion "atheists do this all the time"? Can we safely assume that you are retracting that assertion?

[C0nc0rdance]

You understand that confirmation bias refers to a logical or scientific analysis that is represented as impartial, right?

I don't think making a video "bashing something" is going to be confirmation bias unless they are making a specific logical or scientific argument represented as impartial.

Do you have an instance that meets the criteria?

[C0nc0rdance]

Can you give an example or was this meant to be clever but nonspecific?

[LeopardFrogPilboxhat]

See science would do better if it wasn't so anti-climatic.

You never really win, you just withstand attempts at disproof until you bring enough support over and the old guard dies off.

[briham86]

I took colloidal silver. Not because I thought it'd make me healthy; I just wanted to be Papa smurf for Halloween.

[prschuster]

Although this may cause a big stir among some, I consider addiction medicine to be a good example of psuedoscience supported by the confirmation bias of treatment professionals who assert that addiction is an incurable, progressive disease which can be managed by attending 12 step meetings.

Another example is intelligent design, which uses fancy rhetoric about irreducible, specified complex information in place of real empirical evidence for the existence of and actiivity of a Deisgner.

[EebstertheGreat]

You are correct about both. Unfortunately, while no one with a decent understanding of science believes ID is a "scientific theory" and not a load of crap, many qualified physicians seem to accept that 12 step meetings like AA are effective, even though there is no evidence whatsoever that they are. AA won't even release the statistics of the number of people who go to their meetings who ultimately overcome their alcoholism. Worse still, the program tells people they are powerless to resist the

[EebstertheGreat]

alcoholism alone, and that they should put their power entirely in the support group and in a deity. This makes people dependent upon AA, continuing to go back years or even decades after they have become sober. And all for something that probably doesn't work at all!

[borrofburi]

@EebstertheGreat

Hmm... This concerns me, because I do believe court judges can sentence an alcoholic to attend AA meetings. I also think it works similarly to anger management classes. I am bothered that my government is forcing unjustified procedures upon people.

[EebstertheGreat]

Yeah, this bothers me, too. I first started thinking about this problem when I watched the Penn and Teller's Bullshit episode on it (watch?v=8tPNgHrIkgo). Obviously, take what they say with a grain of salt (or a mound, in the case of, e.g., climate change), but this episode pretty much checks out.

What is also problematic is that AA forces you to worship a deity, which clearly doesn't respect the rights of atheists.

[borrofburi]

I wonder if an atheist could object to alcoholics anonymous meetings on the basis of religious freedom....

[EebstertheGreat]

Probably not, since AA claims to be secular. Apparently they get around the fact that they clearly demand people put faith in a higher power by claiming that this doesn't literally have to be a deity, but could be any object (even, say, a rock), as long as the alcoholic can symbolically put his trust in it. This is absurd, because there is no reason to symbolically put trust in a rock unless that rock is a symbol of a deity, but they don't seem to care.

[borrofburi]

I don't think it matters, demanding people put faith in a higher power violates the religious stance of a naturalist (even if the religious stance is none at all), *especially* if they mandate calling that higher power "god".

[EebstertheGreat]

Well they don't mandate you call it "god," and unfortunately the courts do not have a good track record of defending atheists' rights in America, so I have a tough time believing they will avoid mandating AA for religious reasons.

Actually, the judge probably doesn't care what group you go to, as long as that group is reasonably well-known and legitimate. There aren't a lot of alternatives to AA, but there are some, so maybe you could convince the judge to let you do one of those instead.

[Cyrathil]

They mandate you call it a higher-power, and might even force you into calling it a supernatural one at that. But it doesn't matter, my mostly grain-based squares surrounding dairy product is still a cheese sandwich.

As long as you know of one of the secular alternatives, it shouldn't be a problem. They might not like it, but that really shouldn't be their decision. They might be able to mandate I get help, but I would think them advocating specific organizations would be pushing the rules abit

[prschuster]

With respect to 12 step programs, I won't say that they are totally useless. I'm only saying that there is no good empirical evidence, backed up by double blind experiments with a control group, to confirm their effectiveness. This is a classic example of anecdotal evidence being used to confirm an opinion. If it works for someone, so be it; just don't pretend it has empirical evidence.

[ManicEightBall]

"I consider addiction medicine to be a good example of pseudoscience..."

I agree completely. I've been complaining about this for years. I keep hearing people say things like you shouldn't drink coffee, take aspirin, or many other things because you'll just get dependent on them. Of course, I've been dependent on prescription eye wear for decades, and no one seems to worry about that.

[EebstertheGreat]

There is a big difference between saying that (certain) addiction therapies are pseudoscience, and that addiction is pseudoscience. Clearly everybody realizes that many substances are addictive, and there is substantial evidence that caffeine is among them. I think it is rarely disputed that caffeine dependency and caffeinism are real problems, though both come from overuse and the latter is very rare.

[prschuster]

Alcoholism is very real, so real in fact, that I almost drank myself to death at one point in my life. But the notion that I have an incurable, progressive disease that compels me to continually relapse is totally unsubstantiated. The insanity of it all is seen in the common reaction toward those who go to meetings religiously and still relapse constantly. It's said that they weren't really working a thorough program, so they need more of what didn't work for them in the first place.

[Segepop]

Awesome video(s), C0nc0rdance, but I always have to watch them twice, something I don't think is in your disadvantage. Once for the audio part, and once (on mute) to read the text commentary. Just wanted to point out the irony between your YT ID and the fact the audio section and the text section, although they have the same subject in mind, differ enough to have to pause and read or watch it all over again. Theoretically, you're "doing double-trouble". Anyway, keep up the good work. Cheers!

[C0nc0rdance]

I know, Segepop, and this video is the worst example of that so far. Unfortunately, I write the script, then go looking for the images...

imagine trying to find images of quote mining, bias, null hypothesis, AIDS denialism. Sometimes quotes and articles are all I can think to put on the screen.

I'll bear your comments in mind on the next one. Smaller focus, better concordance between audio and video.

[cheezbawl2003]

:) I myself have to pause every 3-4 seconds to read your essays, graphs, and (especially!) cartoons. Keep fighting the good fight. Maybe someday people will accept intelligence!

[Daytimeofnight]

Very well explained. Keep up the good work. I'm really enjoying your channel. Love the blue guy. Haha. Wikipedia says that he claims the most often used photo of him is doctored to make him look more blue. Any idea about this?

[vince19811981]

Thank you, great work sir!

[Sinuev1]

Excellent video so far about a topic which sorely needed to be addressed in such a manner. I often bring it up Confirmation Bias at the conspiracy theory forum I visit... using a few snapshots from Celestia to show how those powerful arcane symbols we draw between the stars that so many trust to guide our lives can quickly become a just a mess of jumbled scribbles - ultimately pointing back towards from any other vantage point. For once, they finally tell us something insightful about ourselves.

[mrkurt13]

Also, in medicine, we dont really fully grasp the placebo effect so it is hard to control for it. The demeanor, tone, mood, level of interest, etc of the doctor when he treats patients changes the success rate for both placebo treatments and treatments with real medicine. A friendly, invested anesthesiologist raises the success rates for surgeries dramatically(over 35%) If stuff like this isnt controlled for then, the placebo effect isnt controlled for.

[Zoppellaccia]

I use heavy-metal solutions

When i'm sad i listen to Meshuggah

[darthcaedus666]

Good remedy

[floydstinkyboy]

@Zoppellaccia not jazz. definitely not jazz; jazz sends me into a blind rage.

[arlothellama]

@Zoppellaccia Dude, that is about the best comment I have read on Youtube, nice.

[caffeinatedphysicist]

I never comment on youtube... but

this is a fantastic video.

I learned something. Thanks.

[mrkurt13]

Much of western medicine is very vulnerable to this effect. I can think of several studies where commonly performed surgeries were shown to help only through, or no better than placebo surgeries(superficial incision only). I dunno. If we stick with your western medicin approach as the sane ones, we get tons of Physicians prescribing addictive narcotics for chronic pain. A treatment that can only end poorly for the patient....

[mrkurt13]

and in that instance I would say that almost ANY naturiopath that is not out looking to scam people(as in they genuinely believe they are helping) would be of more service than any doctor. I dont disagree with anything in your video, but people in science need to realize they are just as vulnerable as individuals and as a group to conformation bias. The reality we see is shaped by the instrument we use to look and we are all biased instruments.

[C0nc0rdance]

mrkurt13@

Can you cite a peer-reviewed, large population, double blinded study of a naturopathic cure that showed it to be superior to the conventional therapy? Was the result reproduced by a neutral third party?

That's what's missing, in my view.

[mrkurt13]

I believe can find the pain management ones I'm thinking of on pubmed if you give me a little bit. I can only screw around at work so much ;)

You're second video addressed any qualms I had. I think its a great video. I'm not in any camp. Western medicine works great for a lot of things. My personal opinion, at this moment, most treatments are greatly assisted by the placebo effect. When new drugs come out, old ones for the same ailment become less effective.....

[mrkurt13]

Since the manner in which patients are interacted with amplifies or reduces the placebo(or nocebo) effect so much. I dont think it is controlled for even in double blind studies. Like if doctors know they might be giving out sugar pills or the patient knows, it can cause a nocebo effect(hmm, I guess if the drug still worked then that would be even better)

I dont think I can say clearly, my point in 500 word chunks. Not a big deal. Like I said, great video, I will try and find those papers.

[mrkurt13]

I'll have to stop being lazy and make a video to say what I want i guess. But just to be clear, I totally agree with your video. I just think that people in science need to at least occasionally look long and hard at their own minds/biases/etc...we can turn this same harsh eye on western science. microRNA's are a good recent example of the community just calling something rubbish for a long time for no real reason.

[borrofburi]

@mrkurt13

The "double" part of double blind controls for the doctor's effect on the patient. The "single" part of single blind means the patient doesn't know if they're getting the real treatment or the control-treatment. The control-treatment is the sugar pill (in the case of pills).

Altogether it means that all patients should get the same treatment with the exception of the medicine itself, thus properly controlling for placebo.

[mrkurt13]

I guess in really large studies. The placebo effect has been shown to depend heavily on the health care providers. A trial at a hospital with excellent bedside manner will have different results than a factory style hospital. Maybe this effect averages out if you uses 1000's of doctors, but variable beside manner/patient care is like introducing another 'drug' into trials.

[NerdsUnited47]

Weeed. Legalise marijuana already, at least from what I know its not as addictive as morphine, its something you can grow in your backgarden and no need to pokey poke with needles. Grrr...Maybe I am saying this from bias as I want a joint myself...

[Keippernicus]

Cectic FTW!!!