that's even funnier. Really I had no idea America is "Zionist." Look up the word before you use it in your anti-Israel anti-America or anti-West mantra.
@LotusHacker Your insults only hinder your credibility. You hide behind them instead of using arguments. I can even provide an example of media lies over Ahmadinejad. Once he said that "the zionist regime will end", just as "soviet russia did". The media turned this into "Israel will be wiped off the map!!". Now, are you going to provide a counter-argument, or more insults? :)
just as Ahmadinejad totally doesn't think the holocaust was staged. I guess he never said “Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury" eh? Israel isn't a communist country and the country itself isn't simply a form of government. That's like saying Russia itself is going to crumble. Back to the point, Iran has moved its fuel production to underground military facilities. That totally does not sound like they're trying to build weapons either.
maybe, maybe not. and israel probably has that capability but if something like that happened I doubt Israel would be in any great condition if ya know what i mean. and we were arguing whether or not Iran WANTED nuclear weapons. considering what Ahmadinejad has said about Israel and Jews and that Hamas was acquiring Iranian Grad rockets (as well as from other places), he totally wants those weapons.
@LotusHacker - The US is zionist as all hell. AIPAC, ADL, all are tied to the highest levels of our govt. We send them at least $3BILLION every year, and we make sure they are always the best armed "nation" in the middle east. All due to the fairytales in the bible calling them the "chosen people". lmao. What a joke. We need to cut off their allowance and let them fend for themselves.
The time is coming when no respectable subject will be approachable without a strong math background. I knew my elementary school teachers were wrong and jealous when they said any approach is equally valid!
This guy actually predicted correctly. However, the threat still exists. Its not about building the bomb, they might try to sell it, or give it to its proxy militias.
Nowadays, I don't even hear about Iran in the news. Either because the west isn't worried about it anymore, or that the revolutions were more notable to report.
And did anyone notice that any discussion on Youtube about Iran attracts people who talks about Israel-Palestanian problems when the video has nothing to do with it?
Wow! This guy is just as accurate in his predictions as the Wall Street bankers were about housing prices. An exact opposite of his predictions is taking place in Iran.
@athinggoinon What do you mean an exact opposite is taking place. Iran (as of 2011) has yet not developed weapons, Ahmadinejad has lost most of his political clout (as is evidenced by the fact that Khamenei is more pronounced in political issues in order to suppress the moderates), moderates are more voiced on political issues, Khamenei has gained power as Ahmedinejad has been forced on the sideline, And with Khamenei the velayat's power increases. All predictions are quite accurate.
It's actually quite simple. All he's doing is taking the latter two of his four elements of policy making (how focused and how much) and multiplying them together. Say if Ahmadinejad has 5% influence on the policy making process and is 70% focused on it and he wants to build a nuclear weapon then he gets a rating of 0.035 (0.05 x 0.70). Then he does that same step for the others in power and assumes that the highest rating will be the real life outcome. He's a sociologist not a mathematician.
looks like zionist paid pig, what prediction he will do about palastinian genicide.Doe s this funny game theory can predict if some palastinians still will be living in that geto called Gaza? This guy is really a pathcy, acually Ahmadi Nejad became more popular since this funny prediction.
lol @ the ghetto called gaza. like the ghettos called jordan and the palestinian territories? the funny thing about arabs is that they think they can call people pigs after they spread out hate against any group of people and call it justifiable. you better search for a better vocabulary, friend.
As such, testability is problematic. Nobody can attempt to test his predictions because his model is not publicly known. Nevertheless, the CIA is using his game theoretical model, so I suspect there is some merit to his research.
@granddaddyflapjacks Actually Dr. Bueno de Mesquita is a preeminent political scientist who is an expert in international relations. He has a game theoretical model that is the basis of his predictions. I will agree that Dr. Bueno de Mesquita does pose problems scientifically due to the lack of him showing his methodology. However, my understanding is that his model is used by the likes of the CIA for predictive purposes, and he has a proprietary hold on the model.
maybe he's useful to the CIA(if it is even true that they use him) for propaganda reasons.If you are in the intelligence business it would be helpful to make people believe you are all knowing and all powerful even if you are not. As a scientist myself, this talk made very little sense to me (especially where goes on about factorials), is very hand wavy and contains nothing of real substance just pretty graphs. Also none of this work seems to be published in any peer-reviewed journal.
Also, in my experience, you do come across quite a few quacks in academia in surprisingly high positions - especially in fields where mathematically able people mix with not so mathematically able people.
I find it very very hard to believe his claims. It all sounds too good to be true and it probably is.
@Stallkyr and did the CIA's use of this method prevent 9/11, London's 7/7, Madrid's 3/1.. This man is hoax hiding behind his useless PH.D and cashing in on it.
Game theory is not as easy as one thinks... how did a politics professor get the mathematical background to make predictions using sophisticated game theory? However, this guy deserve some credit... for having the courage to do this.
Game theory is not as easy as one thinks... how did a politics professor get the mathematical background to make predictions using sophisticated game theory? However, this guy deserve some credit... for having the courage to do this.
If you only knew what i'd give to know a fraction of what Hitler knew before he took off. I am not mocking him. Nevertheless answer me this, who was Hitlers father?
Didn't Hitlers grandmother become pregnant while working as a servant in a Viennese family . . . And the family . . . was none other than that of Baron Rothschild
Never again my ass, care to guess who the persecuted jews are this time around? Muslims. All monotheist religion in general but mainly Islam. Our oppression can simply be explained by economy & geo politics, we are around 60 nations with 65% of all oil and 70% of all gas and every other resource, more populous than China, vast coastline & airspace, our unity stand in the way of their one world plan.
After the iranian revolution, toppling a nazi who was placed in power by the UK-US-Israel, that puppet was inserted after the assasination of the democratically elected president of iran because he didn't want to give away oil rights. In 78 following the revolution, the clerics declared a 30 year plan for energy independence. Nuclear power allowing export of national oil & gas. They actually did it, ready since 2008. What incentive will it take to reject their completed 30 year endeavour now?
- There was no 'assassination' of any Iranian leader - there was a coup engineered by UK/US with the HELP of Iranians that brought the shah back in power.
- The nuclear program was STARTED UNDER THE SHAH AND NOT THE MULLAHS. It's not 'their' project.'
- nobody is asking them to give it up, people just want to make sure the nutcases leading that country won''t develop nuclear weapons.
Also, the revolution was in 79, not 78. And the last thing on the clerics' mind was 'energy independence', they stopped the nculear program and started it later - and NOT for energy indepdendent. Iran is already and always has been energy independent you imbecile.
and that 'incentive' is removing sanctions and allowing iran to develop and fix its myriad problems like a normal nation instead of isolating itself in a corner shouting death to this or that.
the shah was associated with nazis, muslim people you just generalised 1,68 billion of us aren't nazis. The biggest nazis around are the financial elite who then as now finance fascism be it in nazi germany or in china today. Lets also not forget the majority of these finance elites are ashkeNAZI jews. If one could call them jews. I ask anyone reading this to consider the history of the Rothschilds, the infamous family who were behind so many wars and economic manipulation.
Finally you patronizing prick. The nuclear program had a 30 year goal of making Iran independent of it's fossil energy, freeing them for export while Iran was supposed to be developed enough to have the means. Since there are many uranium ores in Iran as well as great scientists how long can we expect them to remain in the stone age? Don't they have right to technological development? The real point here is that as long as Israel has 400 nukes her neighbours will want to. Death to israel! ;D
@invisme Bruce Bueno De Mesquita's model deals with behaviors based on input from experts, so historical data is indirectly included. Bruce's model simply doesn't ANALYZE historical behavior of an individual because it doesn't need to. He already knows their motivations, values, and how driven they are.
the idea that a model with a few million parameters has any predictive power at all is total gibberish. The fact that he does not explain how anything works in his model at all and I can't find references to journal articles about the "model" makes it even more suspicious. That he keeps going on about "math" seems designed to give a veneer of rigorousness to his ideas but then he gives no confidence intervals on his graphs of "predictions" which any rigorous mathematical modeller would do.
well, in a science that tries to explain complicated reciprocal stuff you can achieve much by simplifying like this. the point is, you never really can predict things. nonetheless his models often bear astounding explanatory power. i'm a stundent of political science, and hence not really into math, but many of the good recent works base on game theoretical models. i think Bueno de Mesquita's achievement rather lie in the field of explaining narrower relationships than Iran and nukes.
the thing is he's not simplifying anything - by saying if there are n people then there are n! interactions then he's making it vastly complicated. Not only that, he hasn't even published the "model." In science, you publish things so other people can reproduce your results. He is using "science" and "math" to give himself a veneer of respectability but this is not science. He is not claiming you can't really predict anything but that you can. He is nothing but a bullshitter.
If you have extremely fast computers and a good model it is, at least theoretically, possible. Although it is strange that he does not publish the basis of his theories. But, he is making tons of money on it, so I can't blame hi...
I think it's the entire possible universe of interaction combinations. Take 5 people A,B,C,D,E A can interact with B B and C B, C and D B,C, D and E C C and D C, D and E D D and E E That's 10 possible combinations of interactions just for person A.
I think that would be 5C1 + 5C2 + 5C3 +5C4+ 5C5 = 5 +10 +10+5+1 = 31. Still not 120. It would be 5! if you say the order of people matters (i.e. 5P5) which would make no sense at all because how does a group of people have an order? In any case, as someone who does mathematical modelling, I do not see how a model with such a large number of ill-defined parameters could possibly give an accurate result? This is pure snake oil.
also he gives no information of what his model is and seems not to have published it in any journal. All of which makes me highly suspicious. It is amazing how many academics get along on pure BS.
There's only one reason that this modern-day Amazing Criswell could possibly be correct about his predictions. He's a witch! He turned me into a newt!
this is pretty stupid stuff. even leaving aside the internal problems about his game theory ("everyone is rational" bs) the allegedly scientific platform on which he claims to produce science sickens me. you claim on the one hand that you are "scientific" and then your biggest ally that you claim proves you right is the "CIA" which also happens to be whom you sell your science to. omg, what a scientific approach, i'm all in tears right now.
Please, fool. You seem to be able to throw out a couple of one-liners that anyone capable of doubting the core assumptions of an undergraduate microeconomics textbook, but beyond that you've said nothing other than you've probably had enough exposure to game theory to talk about it at parties and "wow" the unfamiliar with your "insights", but you've shown NOTHING here beyond your proclivity to doubt the value of a project which has already established its statistical legitimacy.
pedram83 I meant you should start praying being in Iran.....your land will be a target point if at War and I wouldn't want to be you..........Prof. Buena De Mesquita is against conflict and War and he is using his academic skills to make an impact into changing a catastrophic outcome by makinf us aware of a possible outcome. That is all!
Why are people gettting mad about this guy having a working model? I'm sorry if it goes against some of your beliefs, but if it works, and is a observed consistently as a fact, then you have to learn to accept it and abondon your old faulty model.
Also.. who's the guy who hosts these TED conferences. I'm sure he's a badass, but I don't know anything specifically about him.
He is wrong about Iran. He says every body makes decisions for credit but considers the possible negative outcomes as well. As the radical religious clergies in Iran don't think of the pleasure for their decisions and only follow their beliefs and also at the same time don't care about any outcome. So the whole calculations and conclusions are imperfect and defective.
Actually, I wonder how he communicates with the security experts. Suppose Bruce asks a security expert to rate Ahmadinejad's focus on having nuclear weapons on a scale from 1 tto 10, and the expert answers 7. How is the number 7 entered in to the model?
Even if the model is good, they must have some communication problems getting the consistent data.
The important part of the analysis is the graph in 15:30. It claims that Ahmadinejad has very little power right now. If this is true then I am not surprised that he is losing influence.
The mathematical model looks a little redundant. At best it is a nice way to organise the data that he gets from the security experts.
notherelvis there is a lot more that goes on in his simulations or predictions he has not mentioned you are confused, don't know or because oft hat you have gotten to your conclusion..........only time will tell.........
I think all these predictions might have been valid before the unpredictable outcome of the recent election in Iran, but they are not valid anymore,
People in power may want to secure their power by developing some atomic weapons and they like to get their hand on it very quick. What I dont understand is why cant they just buy it in black market from countries like China, Pakistan, India, Russia or even Israel??
It is interesting, But the bad part is that NOKIA the company that shares this video, is the one that assisted Iran in developing the mechanism for controlling and censoring the Internet; and We, Iranians, are going to boycott NOKIA products .
I think you confuse the two social engineering theories. Communism, yes bad... we agree. But when accurate models of prediction can be used in the right hands it can achieve a positive affect. Yes we don't know's hands are the right hands, but that doesn't mean their not out there...
(boils down to ...are you a pessimist or an optimist?)
Wow, this guy is clueless, and this goes to show what's wrong with modern social science. Explaining human behavior with mathematical models never works; look at the current financial crisis. It's impossible to take into account all the decision makers, political influencers, and whims of the people making decisions. The biggest events in history come out of nowhere and are unpredictable. Appreciate mathematics for what it is; don't use it to predict human behavior.
And actually the scariest part about this is that he claims that we can use his models for social engineering. Hello?! Communism was a bunch of guys that said they were smart enough to predict human behavior and could guide it with models. Talk about impugning on our free will.
Most models work only if you talk about variables that align along a normal distribution. Thus, social predictions related to biology (i.e. IQ) are valid, but are otherwise moot. Like this one.
shouldn't we be concentrating on the facist state of israel and its huge nuclear program not mention it land steal and holocaust being carried out on the palestinians. BOYCOTT iSRAELI and it's supportors goods and services.
this talk actually DOES accurately predict whats going on in Iran. Ahmadinejad is greatly weakened since the start of the green revolution. mesquita talks about the moderate quietists that are gaining power, aka Moussavi. I'm a believer in Mesquita's computer model
In what sense does the current election show this is baseless? Iran producing and/or testing a nuclear weapon would prove this as baseless, not the election of Ahmadinejad.
The presentation by Mr Mosquito was based on the premise of being the righteous, instead of self-righteous. It assumes the US has the authority, moral or otherwise, to tell Iran what they can or con not do. Iran's domestic policy may be questionable, but their foreign policy is right on the mark. Hence, a problem for the biggest mass murderers in human history, the Judeo/Christians, whom specialize in murdering kids.
It is no coincident this Gentleman is getting paid in the Jewish-owned NY.
The Holocost has become a "get out of free card" for Zionists. The funny thing is Zionism goes against the orthodox Jewish tradition. That's why you have so many Jews against Israel.
@capaneo His model does not need the 100% accurate knowledge of the market to be 90% time correct on political outcome. If he had 100% correct input from every source, he could end up being accurate even more of the time. Of course if the economy suddenly changed hugely and your model has not built these factors in, then your predictions will turn out wrong.
He was my professor at NYU in the spring semester (just took his final). Gotta tell you, he is extremely fascinating!!!! His classes at times resemble the standup acts of John Stewert, Lewis Black, etc. For those who don't think he is credible, just read his book "War and Reason", in which he uses nothing other than empirical data to back his theories--theories, which in times will probably become laws of International Relations.
I wasted 20 minutes of my life and watched your program. You forgot a big factor, that majority of advisors play with the ignorance of the person(s) receiving the advise. They lie. Most of the advisors are manipulators. A good predictions like yours are the causes for two wars and the economic mess that we are in!!!!
It appears that your math. equations are based on false assumptions. Flase assumptions = Bad decisions =
Where does he assume that advisers don't lie? He assumes that they follow their self interest. Following self interest may involve lying and deception.
All that american army needs to invade Iran is one false flag operation,just like Afgan ,just like Iraq, no more The thing is Iran have all the wrights to make nuclear energy for themselves This guy is talking about them starting WW3 - are you nuts it would be a nuclear holocost and its bye bye Earth NukeWeapons have as in 2002: United States - 10,640 Russia - 8,600 China - 400 France - 350 United Kingdom - 200 India - 60-90 Pakistan - 24-48 also Israel and NorthKorea
typical american thinking... They are at the best the most provincialist thinkers. The mind schemata of iranians are very different from the american way of thinking and representension. Best to try: predict yourselves! It is possible? Ha ha ha!!!
Combine this math formula with the recently made unpredictable neural network brain and a TALON robot with two arms that can interface with a Internet, and we're in trouble.
Mother Theresa rational lol? She horded money that was supposed to be used for the needy of all ages, dying people, in the name of forcing them to suffer so that they would enter Heaven. Problem is she doubted her own religion and suspected she was being possessed by a demon. Next point, doesn't matter if you know the future, it's set, if it wasn't, you wouldn't be able to know it. Now if you knew how to change the future, that would be something else.
I felt it was thought provoking and at the very least encouraging that people are attempting to use mathematics and computer modeling to make policy predictions. It might be not be perfect now, but there is always the possibility current technology will result in future breakthroughs that allow for even better models, etc...
What, precisely, do you think it will accomplish? First, you don't seem to have the first CLUE what Iran's position is in the world or their strategic concerns- but I guess that's the social democratic prerogative, not knowing anything about the world.
Second, have you ever heard a thing Ahmedenijad has said on the issue, meaning the preconditions to talks he set when the US president offered to talk?
It's like talking to children with you people. Naive doesn't begin to describe it.
Synonyms of the word (rational). analytical,balanced,calm,collected,consequential,cool,cerebral, cognitive,deductive,deliberate,equitable,impartial,intellectual,intelligent,judicious,levelheaded,logical,lucid,normal of sound mind.This man claims all people fit this category except toddlers and schizophrenics.The fact of the matter it is the opposite antonyms irrational,ridiculous,unrealistic,unreasonable, unsound.Just like this man.
It's probably a better idea to consult a dictionary rather than a thesaurus if you want to get an idea of what the word rational means. It has various definitons, depending on who you ask. If you watch the video, you will notice that he gives his own definition - rational people are people that do what they think is in their best interest. That is not the same as being impartial, intelligent, logical, level headed, normal, and most of the synonyms you list.
Another propaganda idiot who wants to push the ridiculous WMD lies once again and keeps silent about the euro oil bourse, encircling Russia, geopolitics, oil, IsraHell, and so on.
That's how it is with computers: Trash in, trash out. Even if the algorythm is correct.
Even the USan terrorist organisation "CIA" admitted that Iran stopped the nuclear weapons program back in 2003. But you don't know that, because you're an ignorant, uneducated, ranting clown.
They "admitted" no such thing, you're just making that up. And every top flight intelligence organization in the world thinks they're doing it.
And I think you know it. I think you're well versed on how little you know about anything, which is why you put up a wall of vitriol in every post- you're hoping no one notices you can hardly type, much less make cogent arguments.
And I didn't need mathematics to guess correctly. Also, take note of the complexions of the people in the audience. And the condecention: Iran, you will suffer less if you do what we say.
why does everyone clapping at the end appear to be green screened?
imnothear 3 weeks ago
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ObiWanGinobiliTopFan 5 months ago
Iran doesn't even want a nuclear bomb. -_-
imRyRy 7 months ago
@imRyRy
that's funny
LotusHacker 6 months ago in playlist Mesquita
@LotusHacker What's funny is how America media needs to misquote Ahmadinejad and exaggerate facts about Iran to gain support for their Zionist views.
imRyRy 6 months ago
@imRyRy
that's even funnier. Really I had no idea America is "Zionist." Look up the word before you use it in your anti-Israel anti-America or anti-West mantra.
LotusHacker 6 months ago in playlist Mesquita
@LotusHacker Funny. You argue my claims and then provide no counter argument/proof? Hilarious.
imRyRy 6 months ago
@imRyRy
lol you haven't even proved anything yourself! go to school and keep your head out of bullshit kid.
LotusHacker 6 months ago
@LotusHacker Your insults only hinder your credibility. You hide behind them instead of using arguments. I can even provide an example of media lies over Ahmadinejad. Once he said that "the zionist regime will end", just as "soviet russia did". The media turned this into "Israel will be wiped off the map!!". Now, are you going to provide a counter-argument, or more insults? :)
imRyRy 6 months ago
@imRyRy
just as Ahmadinejad totally doesn't think the holocaust was staged. I guess he never said “Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury" eh? Israel isn't a communist country and the country itself isn't simply a form of government. That's like saying Russia itself is going to crumble. Back to the point, Iran has moved its fuel production to underground military facilities. That totally does not sound like they're trying to build weapons either.
LotusHacker 6 months ago
@LotusHacker Do you really think they would attack Israel? Israeli nukes could turn the Middle-East into a parking lot.
imRyRy 6 months ago
@imRyRy
maybe, maybe not. and israel probably has that capability but if something like that happened I doubt Israel would be in any great condition if ya know what i mean. and we were arguing whether or not Iran WANTED nuclear weapons. considering what Ahmadinejad has said about Israel and Jews and that Hamas was acquiring Iranian Grad rockets (as well as from other places), he totally wants those weapons.
LotusHacker 6 months ago
@LotusHacker - The US is zionist as all hell. AIPAC, ADL, all are tied to the highest levels of our govt. We send them at least $3BILLION every year, and we make sure they are always the best armed "nation" in the middle east. All due to the fairytales in the bible calling them the "chosen people". lmao. What a joke. We need to cut off their allowance and let them fend for themselves.
ebruceii 2 weeks ago
The time is coming when no respectable subject will be approachable without a strong math background. I knew my elementary school teachers were wrong and jealous when they said any approach is equally valid!
AlgeKalipso 10 months ago
This guy actually predicted correctly. However, the threat still exists. Its not about building the bomb, they might try to sell it, or give it to its proxy militias.
Nowadays, I don't even hear about Iran in the news. Either because the west isn't worried about it anymore, or that the revolutions were more notable to report.
And did anyone notice that any discussion on Youtube about Iran attracts people who talks about Israel-Palestanian problems when the video has nothing to do with it?
aprimeau104 10 months ago
this guy is better than nostradamus
carricrl 11 months ago
@carricrl And Germany a Muslim country. Who knew!
AlgeKalipso 10 months ago
Iran in time will become a secular state!
ccasia2008 11 months ago
Wow! This guy is just as accurate in his predictions as the Wall Street bankers were about housing prices. An exact opposite of his predictions is taking place in Iran.
athinggoinon 1 year ago
@athinggoinon What do you mean an exact opposite is taking place. Iran (as of 2011) has yet not developed weapons, Ahmadinejad has lost most of his political clout (as is evidenced by the fact that Khamenei is more pronounced in political issues in order to suppress the moderates), moderates are more voiced on political issues, Khamenei has gained power as Ahmedinejad has been forced on the sideline, And with Khamenei the velayat's power increases. All predictions are quite accurate.
ihatekhomeini 8 months ago
It's actually quite simple. All he's doing is taking the latter two of his four elements of policy making (how focused and how much) and multiplying them together. Say if Ahmadinejad has 5% influence on the policy making process and is 70% focused on it and he wants to build a nuclear weapon then he gets a rating of 0.035 (0.05 x 0.70). Then he does that same step for the others in power and assumes that the highest rating will be the real life outcome. He's a sociologist not a mathematician.
PoorOilers 1 year ago
@PoorOilers Agree. Further, I think he does not even know he is a systems theorist.
seedpods 8 months ago
looks like zionist paid pig, what prediction he will do about palastinian genicide.Doe s this funny game theory can predict if some palastinians still will be living in that geto called Gaza? This guy is really a pathcy, acually Ahmadi Nejad became more popular since this funny prediction.
Arianiuss 1 year ago
@Arianiuss
lol @ the ghetto called gaza. like the ghettos called jordan and the palestinian territories? the funny thing about arabs is that they think they can call people pigs after they spread out hate against any group of people and call it justifiable. you better search for a better vocabulary, friend.
LotusHacker 6 months ago
I want to see his prediction on the Egyptian revolution before it is settled.
Photog60 1 year ago
A real life Hari Seldon?
phildaguy 1 year ago
@bob2k89 By the end of the day, if anyone had a method of predicting anything with accuracy, I don't think they'd share it at all.
arlihama 1 year ago
As such, testability is problematic. Nobody can attempt to test his predictions because his model is not publicly known. Nevertheless, the CIA is using his game theoretical model, so I suspect there is some merit to his research.
Stallkyr 1 year ago 2
@granddaddyflapjacks Actually Dr. Bueno de Mesquita is a preeminent political scientist who is an expert in international relations. He has a game theoretical model that is the basis of his predictions. I will agree that Dr. Bueno de Mesquita does pose problems scientifically due to the lack of him showing his methodology. However, my understanding is that his model is used by the likes of the CIA for predictive purposes, and he has a proprietary hold on the model.
Stallkyr 1 year ago 2
@Stallkyr
maybe he's useful to the CIA(if it is even true that they use him) for propaganda reasons.If you are in the intelligence business it would be helpful to make people believe you are all knowing and all powerful even if you are not. As a scientist myself, this talk made very little sense to me (especially where goes on about factorials), is very hand wavy and contains nothing of real substance just pretty graphs. Also none of this work seems to be published in any peer-reviewed journal.
jimmymac333 1 year ago
@Stallkyr
Also, in my experience, you do come across quite a few quacks in academia in surprisingly high positions - especially in fields where mathematically able people mix with not so mathematically able people.
I find it very very hard to believe his claims. It all sounds too good to be true and it probably is.
jimmymac333 1 year ago
@Stallkyr and did the CIA's use of this method prevent 9/11, London's 7/7, Madrid's 3/1.. This man is hoax hiding behind his useless PH.D and cashing in on it.
bob2k89 1 year ago
@bob2k89 He correctly predicted those events
ccasia2008 11 months ago
GOD SPEAKS.
oilybutthole 1 year ago
does the algorithm take into consideration those outside the political circle of influence, who imo can still have influence over public issues?
lakid87 1 year ago
Game theory is not as easy as one thinks... how did a politics professor get the mathematical background to make predictions using sophisticated game theory? However, this guy deserve some credit... for having the courage to do this.
adrasamer 1 year ago
Game theory is not as easy as one thinks... how did a politics professor get the mathematical background to make predictions using sophisticated game theory? However, this guy deserve some credit... for having the courage to do this.
adrasamer 1 year ago
i've studied game theory for some three years, and what this guy says sounds like a quack science....
st105900 1 year ago
@holo19
If you only knew what i'd give to know a fraction of what Hitler knew before he took off. I am not mocking him. Nevertheless answer me this, who was Hitlers father?
Didn't Hitlers grandmother become pregnant while working as a servant in a Viennese family . . . And the family . . . was none other than that of Baron Rothschild
ZionistWorldOrder 1 year ago
@axiomiser How often are his scientific predictions accurate when senior analysts were correct?
CurrentlyUnknown 1 year ago
wow I just love this idea
AlbertInSanAntonio 1 year ago
Stupid antisemites want Iran to build the bomb
Dream on fags
DaHebrewHammer 1 year ago
BDM is the Thomas Edison of PoliSci mathematical models!! A great man!!!
jayrose17 1 year ago
9/11 = Reichtag fire
Iraq = Poland
USD = Reich Mark about to collapse.
Never again my ass, care to guess who the persecuted jews are this time around? Muslims. All monotheist religion in general but mainly Islam. Our oppression can simply be explained by economy & geo politics, we are around 60 nations with 65% of all oil and 70% of all gas and every other resource, more populous than China, vast coastline & airspace, our unity stand in the way of their one world plan.
ZionistWorldOrder 2 years ago
Stand up comedian
Qwix1337 2 years ago
One that's infinitely smarter than you.
YadaYadaYoda 2 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
fucking scum
FOCKOFFYOU 2 years ago
After the iranian revolution, toppling a nazi who was placed in power by the UK-US-Israel, that puppet was inserted after the assasination of the democratically elected president of iran because he didn't want to give away oil rights. In 78 following the revolution, the clerics declared a 30 year plan for energy independence. Nuclear power allowing export of national oil & gas. They actually did it, ready since 2008. What incentive will it take to reject their completed 30 year endeavour now?
ZionistWorldOrder 2 years ago
Such an unbelievable amount of ignorance.
- There was no 'assassination' of any Iranian leader - there was a coup engineered by UK/US with the HELP of Iranians that brought the shah back in power.
- The nuclear program was STARTED UNDER THE SHAH AND NOT THE MULLAHS. It's not 'their' project.'
- nobody is asking them to give it up, people just want to make sure the nutcases leading that country won''t develop nuclear weapons.
Unplug the internet and go read something useful.
YadaYadaYoda 2 years ago
Well said :)
Farhadofpersia 2 years ago
Also, the revolution was in 79, not 78. And the last thing on the clerics' mind was 'energy independence', they stopped the nculear program and started it later - and NOT for energy indepdendent. Iran is already and always has been energy independent you imbecile.
and that 'incentive' is removing sanctions and allowing iran to develop and fix its myriad problems like a normal nation instead of isolating itself in a corner shouting death to this or that.
YadaYadaYoda 2 years ago
Last thing I'll add, while I'm not a fan of the shah, 'nazi' here applies better to the barbarians ruling iran and other muslim countries.
YadaYadaYoda 2 years ago
the shah was associated with nazis, muslim people you just generalised 1,68 billion of us aren't nazis. The biggest nazis around are the financial elite who then as now finance fascism be it in nazi germany or in china today. Lets also not forget the majority of these finance elites are ashkeNAZI jews. If one could call them jews. I ask anyone reading this to consider the history of the Rothschilds, the infamous family who were behind so many wars and economic manipulation.
ZionistWorldOrder 2 years ago
Finally you patronizing prick. The nuclear program had a 30 year goal of making Iran independent of it's fossil energy, freeing them for export while Iran was supposed to be developed enough to have the means. Since there are many uranium ores in Iran as well as great scientists how long can we expect them to remain in the stone age? Don't they have right to technological development? The real point here is that as long as Israel has 400 nukes her neighbours will want to. Death to israel! ;D
ZionistWorldOrder 2 years ago
@invisme Bruce Bueno De Mesquita's model deals with behaviors based on input from experts, so historical data is indirectly included. Bruce's model simply doesn't ANALYZE historical behavior of an individual because it doesn't need to. He already knows their motivations, values, and how driven they are.
MrMmDonuts 2 years ago
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MrMmDonuts 2 years ago
On the History Channel there was a program called
The New Nosturadums. Does anyone know if its on youtube? It was a documnetry
adam765432 2 years ago
this sure sounds creepy.
but the guy has a clue of what he's doing, he's a genius when it comes to game theory.
standard literature for empirical political science.
Kaschmir 2 years ago
the idea that a model with a few million parameters has any predictive power at all is total gibberish. The fact that he does not explain how anything works in his model at all and I can't find references to journal articles about the "model" makes it even more suspicious. That he keeps going on about "math" seems designed to give a veneer of rigorousness to his ideas but then he gives no confidence intervals on his graphs of "predictions" which any rigorous mathematical modeller would do.
jimmymac333 2 years ago
well, in a science that tries to explain complicated reciprocal stuff you can achieve much by simplifying like this. the point is, you never really can predict things. nonetheless his models often bear astounding explanatory power. i'm a stundent of political science, and hence not really into math, but many of the good recent works base on game theoretical models. i think Bueno de Mesquita's achievement rather lie in the field of explaining narrower relationships than Iran and nukes.
Kaschmir 2 years ago
the thing is he's not simplifying anything - by saying if there are n people then there are n! interactions then he's making it vastly complicated. Not only that, he hasn't even published the "model." In science, you publish things so other people can reproduce your results. He is using "science" and "math" to give himself a veneer of respectability but this is not science. He is not claiming you can't really predict anything but that you can. He is nothing but a bullshitter.
jimmymac333 2 years ago
If you have extremely fast computers and a good model it is, at least theoretically, possible. Although it is strange that he does not publish the basis of his theories. But, he is making tons of money on it, so I can't blame hi...
deterdetsamma2 2 years ago
can someone please explain why with 5 people the number of interactions is 5! not 10? I'm not sure he's making any sense at all.
jimmymac333 2 years ago
bfisher537 2 years ago
I think that would be 5C1 + 5C2 + 5C3 +5C4+ 5C5 = 5 +10 +10+5+1 = 31. Still not 120. It would be 5! if you say the order of people matters (i.e. 5P5) which would make no sense at all because how does a group of people have an order? In any case, as someone who does mathematical modelling, I do not see how a model with such a large number of ill-defined parameters could possibly give an accurate result? This is pure snake oil.
jimmymac333 2 years ago
also he gives no information of what his model is and seems not to have published it in any journal. All of which makes me highly suspicious. It is amazing how many academics get along on pure BS.
jimmymac333 2 years ago
There's only one reason that this modern-day Amazing Criswell could possibly be correct about his predictions. He's a witch! He turned me into a newt!
Quikquik98 2 years ago
This model stands for ....the peace.. and the prevention of a creepy future..
peace is good and planning ahead for it is also good...
lotkay 2 years ago
Quite interesting and logical. Is presented in an easy manner for the viewer to understand. It is important not to confuse him with a palm-reader..
lotkay 2 years ago
Quite interesting theory.
Prof.BDM , as great Prof. as he is, presents the complex in an easy manner for the viewer to understand.
It is important not to confuse him with a palm-reader..
lotkay 2 years ago
...
lotkay 2 years ago
this is pretty stupid stuff. even leaving aside the internal problems about his game theory ("everyone is rational" bs) the allegedly scientific platform on which he claims to produce science sickens me. you claim on the one hand that you are "scientific" and then your biggest ally that you claim proves you right is the "CIA" which also happens to be whom you sell your science to. omg, what a scientific approach, i'm all in tears right now.
gecekara 2 years ago
Please, fool. You seem to be able to throw out a couple of one-liners that anyone capable of doubting the core assumptions of an undergraduate microeconomics textbook, but beyond that you've said nothing other than you've probably had enough exposure to game theory to talk about it at parties and "wow" the unfamiliar with your "insights", but you've shown NOTHING here beyond your proclivity to doubt the value of a project which has already established its statistical legitimacy.
bigollameo 2 years ago
pedram83 I meant you should start praying being in Iran.....your land will be a target point if at War and I wouldn't want to be you..........Prof. Buena De Mesquita is against conflict and War and he is using his academic skills to make an impact into changing a catastrophic outcome by makinf us aware of a possible outcome. That is all!
atta1798 2 years ago
pedram83 if you cannot handle an academic opinion then you should go back to Iran
atta1798 2 years ago
Look at this guys other predictions. He is almost 100% accurate no margin of error.
ele90 2 years ago
also.. will someone research the data and see if it's accurate as of now?
Baldingchimp 2 years ago
Why are people gettting mad about this guy having a working model? I'm sorry if it goes against some of your beliefs, but if it works, and is a observed consistently as a fact, then you have to learn to accept it and abondon your old faulty model.
Also.. who's the guy who hosts these TED conferences. I'm sure he's a badass, but I don't know anything specifically about him.
Baldingchimp 2 years ago
idiot
AMIRsarkari 2 years ago
Comment removed
sidbadshahs 2 years ago
The beauty of this is that he made a clear prediction - all you nay sayers will have your chance to gloat if you are right.
mistahtut 2 years ago
He is wrong about Iran. He says every body makes decisions for credit but considers the possible negative outcomes as well. As the radical religious clergies in Iran don't think of the pleasure for their decisions and only follow their beliefs and also at the same time don't care about any outcome. So the whole calculations and conclusions are imperfect and defective.
onzeman2007 2 years ago
Actually, I wonder how he communicates with the security experts. Suppose Bruce asks a security expert to rate Ahmadinejad's focus on having nuclear weapons on a scale from 1 tto 10, and the expert answers 7. How is the number 7 entered in to the model?
Even if the model is good, they must have some communication problems getting the consistent data.
anotherelvis 2 years ago
The important part of the analysis is the graph in 15:30. It claims that Ahmadinejad has very little power right now. If this is true then I am not surprised that he is losing influence.
The mathematical model looks a little redundant. At best it is a nice way to organise the data that he gets from the security experts.
anotherelvis 2 years ago
notherelvis there is a lot more that goes on in his simulations or predictions he has not mentioned you are confused, don't know or because oft hat you have gotten to your conclusion..........only time will tell.........
atta1798 2 years ago
Stock markets are best understood by social psychologists lol
anthonzi 2 years ago
Fuck USA
davdi0032 2 years ago
How can the CIA hire this guy? This is sophisticated BS.
salahidin 2 years ago 2
If you think this is BS then you should not be in France go back to where you come from salahiDIN!
atta1798 2 years ago
.
- Remember this guy is a Jewish man!
-
TomSolivin 2 years ago
just kidding! some of the best scientists are jewish!
-
TomSolivin 2 years ago
Ok he would have had a better success taking out tarrot cards and read palms. Who paid for this?
acutemania 2 years ago
.
CIA!
-They got rid of mossadegh; Operation Ajax.
- Got rid of the Shah in 1979 (Carter)
- Have hired 40-100,000 Iranian American Agents and have send them to Iran, Now!
- Do not want another weapon selling kid on the block.
- Do not want these bastard mullahs, anymore.
- ......
- Who else?
TomSolivin 2 years ago 2
I think all these predictions might have been valid before the unpredictable outcome of the recent election in Iran, but they are not valid anymore,
People in power may want to secure their power by developing some atomic weapons and they like to get their hand on it very quick. What I dont understand is why cant they just buy it in black market from countries like China, Pakistan, India, Russia or even Israel??
kamykam2 2 years ago
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They have. the 12 bomb that is suppositly lost from ukraine in 1996, was bought by Iran at that time!
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TomSolivin 2 years ago
It is interesting, But the bad part is that NOKIA the company that shares this video, is the one that assisted Iran in developing the mechanism for controlling and censoring the Internet; and We, Iranians, are going to boycott NOKIA products .
mammady100 2 years ago
The evidence that would be convincing is accuracy of past predictions. If in a year or two, he is proven right, he would have serious credibility.
Is there a video of him predicting something similar to this level of accuracy that has come true?
ariesvids 2 years ago
Because otherwise it's all too easy to suspect he's selling an agenda instead of true science.
ariesvids 2 years ago
If these models are so accurate, why can't we get accurate predictions on effects of legislation (like the stimulus) on unemployment?
Economists don't have access to models and computers?
Methinks until there's a public record of performance, it's all high-falutin crapola.
ariesvids 2 years ago
JHG123456
I think you confuse the two social engineering theories. Communism, yes bad... we agree. But when accurate models of prediction can be used in the right hands it can achieve a positive affect. Yes we don't know's hands are the right hands, but that doesn't mean their not out there...
(boils down to ...are you a pessimist or an optimist?)
jonjon2369 2 years ago
This guy reminds me of the main character of the movie "Pi".
Meph1986 2 years ago
Wow, this guy is clueless, and this goes to show what's wrong with modern social science. Explaining human behavior with mathematical models never works; look at the current financial crisis. It's impossible to take into account all the decision makers, political influencers, and whims of the people making decisions. The biggest events in history come out of nowhere and are unpredictable. Appreciate mathematics for what it is; don't use it to predict human behavior.
jhg123456 2 years ago
And actually the scariest part about this is that he claims that we can use his models for social engineering. Hello?! Communism was a bunch of guys that said they were smart enough to predict human behavior and could guide it with models. Talk about impugning on our free will.
Most models work only if you talk about variables that align along a normal distribution. Thus, social predictions related to biology (i.e. IQ) are valid, but are otherwise moot. Like this one.
jhg123456 2 years ago
i agree with you 100%^
SlovenskaSlava 2 years ago
shouldn't we be concentrating on the facist state of israel and its huge nuclear program not mention it land steal and holocaust being carried out on the palestinians. BOYCOTT iSRAELI and it's supportors goods and services.
d4vstone 2 years ago
Such bullshit. The guy is Howard Dean.
39rc6cf 2 years ago
this talk actually DOES accurately predict whats going on in Iran. Ahmadinejad is greatly weakened since the start of the green revolution. mesquita talks about the moderate quietists that are gaining power, aka Moussavi. I'm a believer in Mesquita's computer model
tehbible 2 years ago 2
The current events in Iran proves how baseless this is.
Note to westeners. You can NOT do western thinking and analysis on Middle east events.
While this might be a good method for US and EU but Middle east and Asia is just a totally different ball game.
capaneo 2 years ago
In what sense does the current election show this is baseless? Iran producing and/or testing a nuclear weapon would prove this as baseless, not the election of Ahmadinejad.
mistahtut 2 years ago
you are dumb
paganiniGOGO 2 years ago
The presentation by Mr Mosquito was based on the premise of being the righteous, instead of self-righteous. It assumes the US has the authority, moral or otherwise, to tell Iran what they can or con not do. Iran's domestic policy may be questionable, but their foreign policy is right on the mark. Hence, a problem for the biggest mass murderers in human history, the Judeo/Christians, whom specialize in murdering kids.
It is no coincident this Gentleman is getting paid in the Jewish-owned NY.
ShitOnZionism 2 years ago
well, its this kind of hate begetting hate rhetoric that allows these problems to continue...thank you for justifying our actions with your hate
gbonifant 2 years ago
unfortunately, people like you make anti-zionists look like anti-semites.
paganiniGOGO 2 years ago
The Holocost has become a "get out of free card" for Zionists. The funny thing is Zionism goes against the orthodox Jewish tradition. That's why you have so many Jews against Israel.
walidot 2 years ago
He is wrong. According to himself he cant predict market forces. While his model should be able to predict politics.
I cant see how he can claim that when its obv that market has a HUGE impact on politics. What he claims makes no sense.
capaneo 2 years ago 4
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AlbertInSanAntonio 1 year ago
@AlbertInSanAntonio All Im going to say is that I guess this prediction about Iran has fallen into the %10 category.
Also I think a decent advisor/expert can make prediction with a higher than 90% accuracy. Its very questionable how you measure the accuracy anyway.
capaneo 1 year ago
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AlbertInSanAntonio 1 year ago
@capaneo maybe you don't understand the outcome and thus in term placing this prediction into the 10%
AlbertInSanAntonio 1 year ago
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AlbertInSanAntonio 1 year ago
@capaneo His model does not need the 100% accurate knowledge of the market to be 90% time correct on political outcome. If he had 100% correct input from every source, he could end up being accurate even more of the time. Of course if the economy suddenly changed hugely and your model has not built these factors in, then your predictions will turn out wrong.
47saeed 1 year ago
He was my professor at NYU in the spring semester (just took his final). Gotta tell you, he is extremely fascinating!!!! His classes at times resemble the standup acts of John Stewert, Lewis Black, etc. For those who don't think he is credible, just read his book "War and Reason", in which he uses nothing other than empirical data to back his theories--theories, which in times will probably become laws of International Relations.
petoria555 2 years ago
I wasted 20 minutes of my life and watched your program. You forgot a big factor, that majority of advisors play with the ignorance of the person(s) receiving the advise. They lie. Most of the advisors are manipulators. A good predictions like yours are the causes for two wars and the economic mess that we are in!!!!
It appears that your math. equations are based on false assumptions. Flase assumptions = Bad decisions =
crisis.
Please live math to mathematicians!
yoimkewl 2 years ago 2
Where does he assume that advisers don't lie? He assumes that they follow their self interest. Following self interest may involve lying and deception.
mistahtut 2 years ago
koneye 2 years ago 2
this wont work....
u see Mathematics can only predict
just like shooting a dart at an object
there are percentages and possibilities but
thats without looking at the object
nor how good is one's aim...
i just cant believe Ted posted this garbage
Slaught1004 2 years ago
typical american thinking... They are at the best the most provincialist thinkers. The mind schemata of iranians are very different from the american way of thinking and representension. Best to try: predict yourselves! It is possible? Ha ha ha!!!
ucrual 2 years ago 3
He is right
He just didnt have the tallent of good presenting a right idea. Tipical scientist..
perazh 2 years ago
this is gay
sckryde 2 years ago
Bueno de Mesquita is Full of fail.
PrimericanIdol 2 years ago
that was a little silly, i saw a show featuring him on the history channel and now i know for a fact what i had suspected. FAIL!!!
sexysheep 2 years ago
Combine this math formula with the recently made unpredictable neural network brain and a TALON robot with two arms that can interface with a Internet, and we're in trouble.
kyleain 2 years ago
Mother Theresa rational lol? She horded money that was supposed to be used for the needy of all ages, dying people, in the name of forcing them to suffer so that they would enter Heaven. Problem is she doubted her own religion and suspected she was being possessed by a demon. Next point, doesn't matter if you know the future, it's set, if it wasn't, you wouldn't be able to know it. Now if you knew how to change the future, that would be something else.
kyleain 2 years ago
BEHOLD! the Power of MATH! Here's a secret, mathematicians rule the world, we just don't know it.
TGGeko 2 years ago
Bullshit
allexcosta 2 years ago
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Machiavelli with a computer
igorkrupitsky 2 years ago 2
This has been flagged as spam show
he can suck my dick.
miighankurt 2 years ago
I felt it was thought provoking and at the very least encouraging that people are attempting to use mathematics and computer modeling to make policy predictions. It might be not be perfect now, but there is always the possibility current technology will result in future breakthroughs that allow for even better models, etc...
OrbGoblin 2 years ago
Fucking stop this supid shit. COMMUNICATE, do you know what that is? Fucking talk to Iran.
charginmahlob 2 years ago
What, precisely, do you think it will accomplish? First, you don't seem to have the first CLUE what Iran's position is in the world or their strategic concerns- but I guess that's the social democratic prerogative, not knowing anything about the world.
Second, have you ever heard a thing Ahmedenijad has said on the issue, meaning the preconditions to talks he set when the US president offered to talk?
It's like talking to children with you people. Naive doesn't begin to describe it.
mencken 2 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
Jews do understand the concept Chaos they invented which is why they can predict it!
uuubeut 2 years ago
Synonyms of the word (rational). analytical,balanced,calm,collected,consequential,cool,cerebral, cognitive,deductive,deliberate,equitable,impartial,intellectual,intelligent,judicious,levelheaded,logical,lucid,normal of sound mind.This man claims all people fit this category except toddlers and schizophrenics.The fact of the matter it is the opposite antonyms irrational,ridiculous,unrealistic,unreasonable, unsound.Just like this man.
dlmartin777 2 years ago
It's probably a better idea to consult a dictionary rather than a thesaurus if you want to get an idea of what the word rational means. It has various definitons, depending on who you ask. If you watch the video, you will notice that he gives his own definition - rational people are people that do what they think is in their best interest. That is not the same as being impartial, intelligent, logical, level headed, normal, and most of the synonyms you list.
mistahtut 2 years ago
Another propaganda idiot who wants to push the ridiculous WMD lies once again and keeps silent about the euro oil bourse, encircling Russia, geopolitics, oil, IsraHell, and so on.
That's how it is with computers: Trash in, trash out. Even if the algorythm is correct.
Jail this guy.
trakkaton 2 years ago
You really think Iran isn't trying to produce nuclear weapons? I wonder what color the sky is in your world. Wow.
mencken 2 years ago
Even the USan terrorist organisation "CIA" admitted that Iran stopped the nuclear weapons program back in 2003. But you don't know that, because you're an ignorant, uneducated, ranting clown.
trakkaton 2 years ago
They "admitted" no such thing, you're just making that up. And every top flight intelligence organization in the world thinks they're doing it.
And I think you know it. I think you're well versed on how little you know about anything, which is why you put up a wall of vitriol in every post- you're hoping no one notices you can hardly type, much less make cogent arguments.
mencken 2 years ago
watch?v=p1M9dA3aS_U
!!!__*I*D*I*O*T*__!!!
trakkaton 2 years ago
black swan
KDIZ930 2 years ago 2
he pretty much didn't predict anything with certainty.
livingeasi 2 years ago
Of course not...anyone that predicts something with %100 certainty is not being honest.
mistahtut 2 years ago
But the bible predicts with absolute 100% certainty, and we all know it is completely honest...science has proven it.
This is a joke, albeit, a poor one. I simply couldn't resist though.
WPM1414 2 years ago 2
Ha Ha, you had me going there for a sec.
TGGeko 2 years ago
Wow. Nuclear technology really earns one respect. (and let's guess this mans race: I say he is eastern european jew).
WaleedRahman 2 years ago
And I didn't need mathematics to guess correctly. Also, take note of the complexions of the people in the audience. And the condecention: Iran, you will suffer less if you do what we say.
WaleedRahman 2 years ago
*Condescension
DanHipp 2 years ago