The Dynamic of the Economic System Collapse

[kalm77]

EXCELLENT. CONCISE. UNMOTIVATED TRUTH. Key Points for benefit of others: *Debt Chart: explosion of debts in economy over 200 years. *M2 not matching! ==>Liquidity Crunch. ==>potential for inverse multiplier effect. = deflation. (paying back debts). = deflationary outlook of economy = BAD for GDP *Only agent at that point, who can borrow more to alleviate is Government * gov't aim: hyperinflation to walk away from the past. US is global ccy. *Co's must manage price/revenue carefully!

[icanhasbailout]

Thank you for putting this information out there. The more people who are aware of what is going on, the better chance we all have of making it through the situation.

[MegaRejoice]

Really enjoy all your videos. I am a lay person when it comes to economics but you have helped me to understand some basic principles.

[badri23]

what will happen to the dollar during this crisis?

[kja5]

It will decrease in value to the point where it is worth as much a peso or less.

Wages will not necessarily increase with inflation as well. We have dugg ourselves in such a big hole that by the time the US hits rock bottom, people might not even be able to afford food, let alone a new car or useless consumer products.

[InsecureAnimal]

Absolutely nothing new or interesting in this. All he is saying is watch out for opportunities and be prepared to tighten your belts.  Phooey.

[dnarby]

Haven't watched everything yet, but this looks like a plausable way the S will hit the F.

[MrMortgage1]

Key to recovery is to make intelligent decisions and ge educated so you don't get hit by surprises and know what to expect.

mortgageartist. com

is a free mortgage information resource. It provides solid reference material and costs you nothing. Education is free but ignorance can be costly.

nomortgage4u. com provides simple, effective and universal tips and strategies to help you get the most out of your mortgage dollar and get debt free.

It's free too. suggest you take a look.

[geccochico]

fantastic, great logic, followed by well thought out "if then" analysis, too bad most americans don't want to hear this but it needs to be said, the few that do listen and then ACT will be much better off

[geccochico]

Fantastic video, very well said, and spot on true. you have done your homework and thanks.

[peckiledorf]

pretty god dam good!

[barbeque44]

very interesting. Its pretty scary. thanks for the well illustated explaination.

[Ajusco1974]

Thank you for this information. Do you have a kind of Excel document to follow this System Dynamics ???

[jberni1]

Yes

[MotaMouse]

You seem like a nice guy ,but...

I've slowly come to realise you're one brick short of a full load.

[0bstriege1]

absolutely true... he solves problems which would not have been there without him..

[CubistCafe]

Do you make Xtube videos?

I love the t shirt and his lips.

[dojufitz]

I have 3 chickens now and they lay 3 a day - i am giving the eggs to friends i have so many - they are great pets and have a nice house to live in.

People who live in cities will start to do alot of this soon.....grow veggies and share fruit.

[jeanpaulcass]

you are the best. Thanks for these videos. I really enjoy watching them. I think that commodities will become more and more volatile. Everyone is getting in this game, I am afraid already.

[PrepNow]

Greetings from Los Angeles.

Thanks for your videos.

I just want to share something "funny."

As I stopped by my bank (now Chase, formerly WAMU) and withdrew some cash at the ATM, it said on the screen:

"If you have a check from the State of

California, do NOT make a deposit here,

please see the teller," or something

like that. Wow!

[lucidjeff]

Thanks Berni, your videos are always refreshing. Many people in the US if not most are still in denial about this crisis, pretending like its just a normal recession. They are relying on the government to "get them out of it". What you talk about is valuable because if you learn to position yourself before it gets really bad you will weather the crisis much better than most people who rely on others rather than themselves to prosper.

[capcom101you]

Thanks for sharing your views on economics.

[JohnnyGGN]

About Peak Oil. I talked to a friend of mine in the oil- industry. When he started in the 70`ies, they thought they had enough oil in the world for another 40 years. Today, over 30 years later, they still have enough oil for another 40 years. We find new oil all the time, and now we are able to get to oil that was impossible to get out some years ago. He thought we would find new energy sources a long time before the world was emty of oil.

[ShillBasher]

Good point!. If my point does hold any water and we then added it to yours for a moment then I think we'd see a much longer term before we see "peak oil".

All that being said I do think we must do more to cut down on the unsustainable use of oil and gas to drive our economies. Renewable energy is the ONLY long term answer and it's further implementation would create a new boom in manufacturing, ie solar cells, wind turbines, electric cars.. etc'.

[braincoil]

We find new oil, but it is poorer quality, takes more resources to get out and there is much greater demand for oil now than there was 30-40 years ago. So therefore prices will ultimately go up up up. And this is what "peak oil" is about, not actually running out of oil, which will not happen, as you say. That is my thought.

[Kenesay101]

Our creditors will not be very happy if we use inflation to get our way out. Our citizens will also be very unhappy.  Excellent videos...thanks!

[SilverRose09]

However, I don't see the inflation happening right the way, it will take several years and the slow motion will kill our country's wealth. (thanks to all these bail outs)

[Piett2]

Thank you for these videos - I really appreciate,

[gmivanleeuwen]

Thx Berni! Always a pleasure to watch your vids..

[emmazedbend]

Another good video; I'll just go and buy some gold now.

[Exus11]

This seems a lot like Keynesian economics, which I don't agree is the best economic system. I also don't see how inflation would be good even if it does not reach hyperinflation. However I do like the way you explain a lot of your videos, very informative on many topics.

[jberni1]

I agree. In my eyes Keynes is only usefull to politicians. Austrians understood the world much better and therefore are denied by media

[Budvb]

Market is headed to its next leg down.. Negative Attitude is picking up here in the USA over this Weekend, when brokers play catch up on the weekend news, I think it will force the next leg down for the Market and Markets is coming! Hold Gold & Silver, also Food if you can! God Bless we are setting up for an interesting 2nd half of the Year! This thing is going to get Ugly!

[jberni1]

Yes, but remember it has to go fast, otherwise governments cannot sell Treasuries !

[Frequencitee]

Dr.  Berringer. I did leave a post here but apparently it never posted properly.

I just wanted to say thank you. I don't know why we are fortunate to have well informed and well-educated people offering a comprehensive analysis to how we got here, where we are, and where we go from here; but, it is greatly appreciated. I am glad that there are people like yourself who share knowledge.

[DavidAKZ]

Hi Jorn,

re your graph of money supply - top right. I have been looking at the annual delta of M3 for the Reserve Bank of Australia (rbaDOTgovDOTau) it is -for talk sake- near constant. Historically this appears to be true regardless of economic conditions.

[jberni1]

Hi,

is it the growth data or the "final" data you looked at ?

Joern

[DavidAKZ]

Could you expand a bit please ?

[svessien]

Great video! Thanks.

[florgat91]

the money supply is a function of the availablity of oil - we've reached peak oil hence the party is over..

[ShillBasher]

Have we definately reached peak oil?. At present more oil is produced globaly per day than is being used, which is why it is being stockpiled.

I'm also curious about the North Alaskan oil fields, maybe they are actualy very very rich but will not be admitted or utilised until post "peak oil"?. This will place the USA in a very strong global position in the future. For now they will just take other peoples oil in return for dollars.. or bombs (please excuse the word "take" in that sentence).

[TheCZMan]

Same here. Very suspicious about peak oil. We definitively reached a platform on the way to peak oil but I doubt this platform is the peak oil.

Peak oil can only be discussed when the whole world oil resources are mapped (not estimated) and all territories exploited. Not the case atm. For the US, it is better to consume resources at the borders of its empire and going inwards. US resources are preserved.

[ShillBasher]

Exactly!, why would a super power use all of THEIR resources up before depleting every one elses 1st. It's only a theory and so we can only speculate about it.. but it does make a lot of economic sense long term.

It would seem that some people on this thread don't agree with the hypothesis but appear not to have enough to say on the matter to merit a written reply. To whoever marked my comment down: this is a forum and all opinions are welcome so share them instead of hiding in the shadows.

[ShillBasher]

More thumbs down?. Maybe he or she should just say something.. anything that indicates they have a valid point to make on this subject.

[mandatum1979]

What the hell does the money supply have to do with oil? Perhaps we've reached peak oil, perhaps not, but the money supply has nothing to do with oil. Idiot.

[florgat91]

oil represents future growth .. no oil, no growth - banks will not lend if they don't think there will be growth -- hence the money supply shrinks .. the economic collapse of 2008 was a function of oil demand (especially from BRIC countries) outstripping global supply -- two months after oil price peak, economic collapse -- the system will now reset but eventually global growth will outstrip a decreasing supply causing another crash - we can expect more of these growth/supply convulsions..jerk?

[mandatum1979]

There are so many bullshit assumptions in this little screed I don't know where to begin. The world was awash in oil during the oil peak last year. Price peak had very little to do with BRIC nations' demand and everything to do with currency bubble making its way from collapsed real estate into the commodities. World has more than enough oil for continued growth. You've been hanging out at Peak Oil doomster websites too much.

[1mealperday]

thank you . i will stick to planting potatoes.

the millions of unemployed have no idea what to do. but its sinking in that there are no jobs on the horizon. we have been left holding an empty bag, a financial black hole. We are all having to rethink how we are to live our lives.

it will not and cannot be as it was. soon we may all be planting something

[realrasher]

[continued...]

A vicious cycle sending asset prices so low until the point when the banksters & friends begin to buy everything they can. Which could then trigger hyper-inflation in asset prices.

Poof... there goes the neighborhood.

[realrasher]

Is this a possible scenario of Inflation/Deflation?

As asset prices, for example homes, continue to drop every month... (deflation). Plus job cuts continue, causing lower average wages.

Simultaneously commodities could go begin to hyper-inflate as witnessed in the oil market... Spreading hyper-inflation to other goods & services such as food & energy. Which would cripple potential asset buyers and increase asset sellers, (further deflation).

[continues...]

[livefree1789]

Technically, the gov could pay off the debt by printing its own money but it doesn't do that. The gov borrows every penny from the Fed at interest. So its like filling up little holes with dirt from your own grave; the bigger the holes you have to fill (bailouts) the bigger your grave becomes (gov debt). This is one sick system we are living in.

[BLynchCAN]

Danke schön jb.

I think a lot of companies will not be able to make the business model change. Too entrenched from before. Do not have the versatility. That's where the individual has the opportunity to change and shift modes. Just cleared off another credit card.

[realrasher]

Wow! What a great presentation.

I've been trying to wrap my head around the various inflation/deflation arguments for a while... After watching your explanation, it's starting to make sense now.

Also the observation you noted about their being less money than debt... wow, that really puts things in perspective.

Thank you for the valuable lesson!

[anamericanstory]

GREAT JOB!!!!

[jsmythib]

thanks for a great post. I loved the "flies" example in your previous video as well. Keep them comming!

[nsprphg]

Thank you once again for a great video! If it is possible can you do a video for the average person on how he or she can not just survive but thrive during and after the collapse. Are there any countries that will have the upper hand after the collapse. Is it a world collapse or western collapse.

Thank you for sharing your valuble time with all of us.

[realrasher]

From everything I've been learning, I'd say the first thing to do to thrive is become as self sufficient as possible. For example, instead of buying bottled water all the time, buy a really good water filtration system.

If you stock up on products that you know you'll use in the next few years... You would likely make more than 100% on your investment.

It just might end up that surviving will be the equivalent to thriving.

[jonah70757]

Good video. You should get a job with The Banksters. CODEX = Global control of al food, CAP & Trade + The control and Global taxation of all energy, New currency and World Central Bank = Control of all (Fake Ponzi Scheme)Money. What does this mean? Slavery Misery Feudalism with the many being oppressed by the few. I could really give a crap about making a profit from this. Now an Elite, Politician OR Bankers Head on a stick Now That is something to think about,

[modelmark]

Is there a way back from this nationalization? Government uses their monopoly of money creation to buy assets of productive individuals in society, who got into problems because government tinkered with the money supply.

Why would they ever give these assets back? They now have more power then ever before? A country full of slaves begging you for favors, every politicians wet dream. The only problem is that their services never work and are too expensive.

[dvirtosu]

I really like economics and the way you explain it in this video is very clear and straight. However, the current economics that we are considering is based on increasing supply of cheap energy (oil and gas). How do you think that worlwide economies (private entities and governments) will cope with less resources in the next coming years?

[leninstreet]

How can the banks survive when the value of money goes down? It seems to me that the only way for banks to survive is to hold real assets. What they need is a deflation that presses the prices down which they then can use to buy and hold when the inflation is triggered.

[jonathankitchen]

fantastic video .. Thanks !

[ruleof3]

In order to become a winner in this so called free market, we must consider that this is a engineered economic collapse. When considering that premise we must ask ourselves who is engineering this crisis. I seem to think many roads lead to Goldman Sachs and those that stand behind it.

There are people betting against America. They will NEVER tell you who it is.

[nextdimensions]

DavinciJ15 had a nice link to a video about GS on Rolling Stone

rollingstone (dottt) com /videos/player /28915225

[lunaulander]

Good onya mate.

[ruleof3]

In the next 1-3 monthes the US dollar will crash and Obama will declare a 'banking holiday'. The Federal Reserve will be granted more power as a result of this coming crisis. Gold, silver and commodities in general will skyrocket in price. There will be food shotgaes, starting in California. Shortages will accelerate across the US.

The government will mandate price controls and total upfront intervention in the market. I'm sure this will happen I just don't know how bad, bad really is.

[satanic6ritual]

hey jberni1, i like your videos and way of thinking. although i don't understand everything you are great. if you get a chance read the book how to select stocks using technical analysis by martin pring. it talks alot about economic cycles if your into that kind of thing.

[satanic6ritual]

the big trick if your in business is to balance your inventories correctly to the economic conditions. in other words if you have too much inventory you will sink your business and if you have too little you will not expand enough to beat the competition or be profitable. most consumers fell into the economic trap and took on excessive leverage.

[jberni1]

Yes, but givene different points on the curve it might be even faourable to increase inventories !

[MrFredGSanford]

Can someone answer me this? If there's a school bully that "borrows" money from you every day and you realize the bully owes you an enormous amount of money. What makes you think the bully will even pay you back? You can't beat the bully (it's a bully. lol). Now lets swap the bully with the USA. What if she defaults? Can anyone do anything to her? Thanks.

[nnossov]

sooner or later a bully will eat too many dohnuts and will become weak.

[modelmark]

The US is very dependent on goods from over seas. Their production base is mostly gone. Wallmart is filled with stuff from China. I would actually say that the US is more dependent of China, then the other way around. The Chinese gov. could survive without the paper promises. There is no practical way to enslave the world to make consumer goods for you, without you fiat currency being continued to be bought.

[DavidAKZ]

1776 Boston Tea Party

[Growby10]

great video sir!~

How do you suppose the government will transition all that debt/dollars into something new. and what will happen to all those who currently have most of their wealth in dollars (which will be 99% of the population). thanks for the video's!

[bubonick23]

I really like your videos. I just wish you would post more often about timely events.

[NibiruMagick2012]

Thank you

[Hero1957]

Please give us more on how individuals should handle and thrive in the coming difficulties. Thank You

[DavidAKZ]

get out of debt

[nextdimensions]

get out of the USD

[Teller3448]

Hmm, how do you know the quantitative easing will not merely counterbalance the amount of old money being erased by debts paid off???

[artdeco101010]

That was awesome man - very enlightening !

[NAVYGOLDEIGHTFOUR]

I really appreciate your videos.  I have to think that in order for one to "buy" some time in oder to figure out where we are and how to proceed, it would be prudent to have some sort of hard asset, like gold/silver now. I understand hard assets are not the be all and end all, but I would be interested in your thinking on the role of hard assets in this crises.

[wildpett]

I agree with your statement about inflation/deflation. Where do you think we are now ? Can we expect another deflationary bust when the Alt-A mortgages reset in the US ?Or is it hyperinflation from 2010 on and out until the next deflationary bust ?

[Cneumann22]

I really look forward to your videos. The information is VERY helpful. Would like to know more about hyperinflation - signs to look for before it hits. Located in USA. Thanks again, please do vids as often as possible.

[Lynchian74]

Love your videos. But don't forget economics is a social science. People are very much on the edge these days. Held together by anti depressants and what not. Hyperinflation will push people off the edge and civil unrest will result. The money system is flawed. It should be based on relative scarcity and backed by gold. Its a 300 year old pyramid scheme and is collapsing rapidly. We only have a matter of weeks now. The US is on the verge of collapse.

[llothar68]

I don't think that a gold standard is required but we need to completely change the money system.

Remove the central banks (Fed) and the way that every business bank can generate 10$ debt for 1$ saving. This will of course also remove almost all interest rates for savings but this isn't such a problem as it will also remove inflation.

[nextdimensions]

I agree with you on removing the Fed, but first it looks like we will now have a "Super Fed" via the IMF. They are now selling thier own bonds based on SDR's.

[yaplonglong]

Good video

[SilverRose09]

We were looking foward for your video. Thank you. I am confuse about knowing when are hitting the bottom. I still believe are on deflationary period, specially with Real Estate.

[aw3212]

RE prices will get much lower in the US - a bigger wave of foreclosures on the way. Also, many lenders are under reporting their problems and ignoring their borrowers cause they know they cant do anything. Here in FL some people haven't paid for over a year and still aren't out of their homes.

[SilverRose09]

Also the reason that the banks are holding all the foreclosures is because they have parked 500 billion of dollars that was bailout. This tells me that they have a plan. If there is a hyperinflation, they will prefer to have real estate instead of cash, they are not in the need to give the real estate away yet.

[Growby10]

@silverrose - i have proof that banks are holding 70% of the foreclosures off the market. check out my channel and have a look. thanks!

[1mealperday]

as i understood it, were the banks to put the 70% on the market,, house values drop lower and the banks value would be in question

[DavidAKZ]

Yes, look out for ARM and ALT-A loans in 2010 and 2011.

[llothar68]

RE (especially commerical) will bottom out at 80% below jun 2006 prices.

Thats my forecast based on numbers we had seen in Japan in the 90ths.

[Jaycephus01]

I'm not sure most banks are in on any 'plan' anticipating hyperinflation, so they appear to be getting ready to try to dump some of their houses on the market. I just saw a graph by a Real Estate group that estimates we are only about 35-40% of the way through the total foreclosures that will be due to the housing-bubble and recession. A lot of pain yet to come. A lot of people are not paying because they think there will be a bail-out, or they WANT to be foreclosed. Prices will come down.

[budb11]

Good rational overview of what needs to be done to survive this adjustment. This is why I like your videos. I wish you could share more frequent information, but of course that would supply your competitors with market advantages. So tell us what you can and thanks for your videos.

[meikagirl]

SHORT EVERY BOUNCE!

[Mongodelight]

why didnt you told us to buy in march?

[aw3212]

dont worry the gains we've received since March (at least in the US markets) will surely disappear by the end of this year probably, like last year, in the Oct-Dec timeframe. DOW 6000 1/1/10

[DavidAKZ]

That's your job

[realrasher]

Unless someone is an insider... I don't think anyone could've predicted the corruption that triggered a market rally.