You have struck my Archille's heal! It is so much easier to see the problems than it is the solutions. The oil problem is systemic and worldwide, but your survival and mine is VERY local. I don't think we can respond collectively, worldwide, nationally or locally, without first getting past the monetary problems that are causing the fiscal problems that are preventing us from solving the social and economic problems ... then she swallowed the fly ... on my!
For a while I was in a state of dispair as I leanred more about the problem. The things that most people think are going to save us, like electric cars and wind power and Tesla's endless energy device kept hidden in a CIA warehouse next to the Ark of the Covenant are NOT going to save us.
Social and economic change are inevitable as we scale down. Technology improvement will help first world countries mitigate the pain.
Back in the 70's there was a peak oil scare, and people waited in lines for gas, but in turned out okay because it was only the US peaking, so we started importing from the middle east. Now its for real, and the government is too preoccupied in meetings with bankers to even be aware of peak oil.
On CIA.gov the world's oil production was about 87 ml/b while the consumption was 84 ml/b, which leaves only 3 ml/b until peak unless more well's are discovered.
I've been wondering how long it would take some clever person to ignore the point of the video and point out the spelling error on my graphic. No, the graphic software I used didn't have spell check on it and I didn't notice there error untilo after I published the movie so I wasn't willing to take it down and republish.
It is good that oil demand dropped off. Why for example do people drive short distances, when they could walk, ride a bike? While transport is not the only use of oil, it is the biggest, we should get out of the mode, of guzzling oil.
Very VERY interesting. Thank you for explaining this. Correct me if i'm wrong but basicly In order to make oil cheaper we must find a way to stop needing it? Like by finding a very affordable alternative?
The only thing I find regretfull in all this, is that the country did not have the foresight to go solar when it would have not have been an emergency situation. In other words the goverment guiding business and the people into going solar. AS it is it will probaly be a panic situation, the price of alternative energy will be high and we are idiots.
You have to be careful with what you are saying here. The Hubbert Peak Theory is quite a mediocre theory for prediction purposes. First of all, it doesn't for example predict what is going to happen "above ground" (e.g. more war in the ME or not?). Second, there are oil production regions in the world which have multiple pronounced peaks in their production profiles. Third, the theory itself does not accurately states how much oil is actually there. The results are all estimates, which can .....
be all wrong when you do a hubbert linearization calculation on a range of data points, which are not "suitable" enough. The answer is to use additional methods alongside the Hubbert Peak Theory and/or use new methods for increased accuracy in the result. I'm working right now on the software implementation of Laharerres Multi Cycle Hubbert Linearization with his "addition method" and my own custom "maximum method". It basically means that it is possible to create multiple Hubbert Curves and....
somehow "append" them together by adding them up or by taking maximum values of all curves for an oil producing region. The result is a curve which does not resemble a Hubbert Curve at all, but a curve that is more accurately fitted to the real data. This is a good method for, for example, fitting the production profile of the UK (which has multiple peaks).
any advice on what to do are where to go when the oil runs out?
misschazmonet 1 year ago
@misschazmonet
You have struck my Archille's heal! It is so much easier to see the problems than it is the solutions. The oil problem is systemic and worldwide, but your survival and mine is VERY local. I don't think we can respond collectively, worldwide, nationally or locally, without first getting past the monetary problems that are causing the fiscal problems that are preventing us from solving the social and economic problems ... then she swallowed the fly ... on my!
zthustra 1 year ago
@misschazmonet
For a while I was in a state of dispair as I leanred more about the problem. The things that most people think are going to save us, like electric cars and wind power and Tesla's endless energy device kept hidden in a CIA warehouse next to the Ark of the Covenant are NOT going to save us.
Social and economic change are inevitable as we scale down. Technology improvement will help first world countries mitigate the pain.
See Chis Martenson.
zthustra 1 year ago
Back in the 70's there was a peak oil scare, and people waited in lines for gas, but in turned out okay because it was only the US peaking, so we started importing from the middle east. Now its for real, and the government is too preoccupied in meetings with bankers to even be aware of peak oil.
On CIA.gov the world's oil production was about 87 ml/b while the consumption was 84 ml/b, which leaves only 3 ml/b until peak unless more well's are discovered.
Tirius9393 1 year ago
Oh the content of the video is quite good. I just felt like being a smartass.
TIKIMAN198 1 year ago
@TIKIMAN198
It's a tough job being a smartass, but someone has to do it!
Thanks for viewing and commenting.
zthustra 1 year ago
Destriction??? Do you know how to spell check?
TIKIMAN198 1 year ago
@TIKIMAN198
I've been wondering how long it would take some clever person to ignore the point of the video and point out the spelling error on my graphic. No, the graphic software I used didn't have spell check on it and I didn't notice there error untilo after I published the movie so I wasn't willing to take it down and republish.
zthustra 1 year ago
It is good that oil demand dropped off. Why for example do people drive short distances, when they could walk, ride a bike? While transport is not the only use of oil, it is the biggest, we should get out of the mode, of guzzling oil.
KrunchyJD 1 year ago
Very VERY interesting. Thank you for explaining this. Correct me if i'm wrong but basicly In order to make oil cheaper we must find a way to stop needing it? Like by finding a very affordable alternative?
cyberlord64 1 year ago
@cyberlord64
I think that is an awesome and correct point. Thumbs up!
zthustra 1 year ago
Excellent video. Oil might just be oil, but what it was yesterday isn't what it might be tomorrow :-)
Anekantavad 1 year ago
great video, based on a very good source, very interesting topic.
so, well, thanks, and keep making these when you find out something new :)
kurtilein3 1 year ago
Thanks! This cleared things up for me. I wasn't quite sure what was meant with destroying demand before.
VolcanicPenguin 1 year ago
If you like graphs, then you might also like my free, open source peak oil software Sokath: sokath[dot]sourceforge[dot]net, (replace [dot] with . )
alexanderjurjens 1 year ago
The only thing I find regretfull in all this, is that the country did not have the foresight to go solar when it would have not have been an emergency situation. In other words the goverment guiding business and the people into going solar. AS it is it will probaly be a panic situation, the price of alternative energy will be high and we are idiots.
valhala56 1 year ago
You have to be careful with what you are saying here. The Hubbert Peak Theory is quite a mediocre theory for prediction purposes. First of all, it doesn't for example predict what is going to happen "above ground" (e.g. more war in the ME or not?). Second, there are oil production regions in the world which have multiple pronounced peaks in their production profiles. Third, the theory itself does not accurately states how much oil is actually there. The results are all estimates, which can .....
alexanderjurjens 1 year ago
be all wrong when you do a hubbert linearization calculation on a range of data points, which are not "suitable" enough. The answer is to use additional methods alongside the Hubbert Peak Theory and/or use new methods for increased accuracy in the result. I'm working right now on the software implementation of Laharerres Multi Cycle Hubbert Linearization with his "addition method" and my own custom "maximum method". It basically means that it is possible to create multiple Hubbert Curves and....
alexanderjurjens 1 year ago
somehow "append" them together by adding them up or by taking maximum values of all curves for an oil producing region. The result is a curve which does not resemble a Hubbert Curve at all, but a curve that is more accurately fitted to the real data. This is a good method for, for example, fitting the production profile of the UK (which has multiple peaks).
alexanderjurjens 1 year ago