Hi Bill, I tend to favor a move down to DOW 570, as it is the cycle wave 4 low, and the beginning of the great asset mania. Historically, the ending point of manias is below the start. Hopefully we switch monetary systems before ALL of the credit inflation from the 1930's is undone and we are at DOW 40.
@ctrader09 Sure it's possible. Essentially this has been Prechter's call since October 1987 when he said: "the Grand Supercycle bear market has begun"....targeting 40-381 Dow. Or how about circa Oct 1995, he said: "the message is unequivocal, portending a record setting collapse in stock prices...." when the Nasdaq was in the 500's (NDX eventually hit 4800). As a trader and analysts I have a set of expectations based on the patterns that I assume to be correct.
@ctrader09 If the market doesn't confirm the pattern I'm looking for, then I look to re-evaluate. There's some evidence (24 years and 11,000 Dow points, *3400%* in the NDX) that RP's original assumptions are off. I think it's wise to have an open mind to an alternate scenario. The logical alternative is that we've had a series of 1-2's rather than 3-4's. How else do you explain the best Elliott Wave analyst in the world circa 1987 being so far off?
@T1systems Certainly wise to have an open mind, but the reason Prechter was 5 years early in calling for the bear market to begin was that the 5th wave extended. He didn't account for that when he should have considering the size of the top that was building. Then it extended into 2007 with a divergence between the DOW and the COMP/NDX. There is a pattern on the DOW I am watching that is extremely bearish long term, and that is a megaphone top. this would allow one more all-time high.
@ctrader09 I guess you weren't around circa 1987, nor did you read my answer. Prechter called the top in 1987 @ NDX 137 or so. That's 13 years early no matter how you count it. Oct 22, 1987 if memory serves, just after that crash. So you're saying his 1987 count is "right" and it's just an extended 5th (2280% extention basis the NDX)?
@ctrader09 He was decisively bearish in October 1987. He said : "the Grand Supercycle bear market has begun". Just because he didn't write a book that year, or some folks here weren't born yet, it doesn't change the fact. Here's the point: if the market extends 3400% beyond were it "should", it's likely you're off by a degree of scale. That's exactly what's happened, yet all the newbie "Elliotticians" cling to some variation of Prechter's original count....
@T1systems The fact that it extended that far, if anything, would portend a bigger top than he expected, not a smaller one. Also regarding the CRB, commodities exhibit ABC overlapping patterns. So the the series of 1-2's isn't necessarily, or likely, correct.
@ctrader09 Look at your own copy of Prechter's long term count....call 1932 a 1-2 instead of (III)-(IV) (note there is no alternation in your/RP's (II) and (IV) waves). Also note *all* of your counts, even your "bullish alternate" counts, have been wrong (too bearish). The market is talking to you, but you only have ears for Mr Prechter's Super Cycle Bear song....
@ctrader09 Google "CRB back to 1450" I count I-II-1-2-i-ii-iii on that chart.......what do you count please? The bottom line is we *don't* know exactly where we are in very long term counts.....
@Andronichuk Thanks so much Max. I hope you are well. As you know the long term Dow expanding triangle count is similar, if not the same, as long term counts you have posted. Google "500 year CRB". The 500 year CRB chart best counts as a series of 1-2's from the 1400's through the 1930's. *If* that's a surrogate for world growth, prices (growth) could be sideways to higher in the decades to come.... a few Dow 10,000 point declines not withstanding.
@Andronichuk Also, what I often find inexplicable, is how complex and contorted folks make Elliott. At its core you are just trying to determine "is it impulsive or is it corrective"? Is it a five or a three? More often than not there's a simple clear more favored choice that a 5 year old would make. But most EW analysts rationalize their preconceived opinion with convoluted and bizarrely scaled counts. The 2008-09 dollar rally is a very good example.
@pipercolt1963 Certainly not what I would do, nor would I suggest it. Even assuming we can perfectly predict the next six years without any updates to my forecast, you are looking at maybe 2000+/- Dow points against you at some point soon. Not my style dude. I don't like 10 Dow points against me. In fact I would be short here off the failed test of my 1358 target @SPX 1356.50.....
Interesting look here Bill. The long term you posted is a whip saw man, from Dow 12K to 10K to 14K and then the bottom drops to 6k or a bit less. Wow, time to wax the board and ride what ever wave is upon us. Thanks so much for all the work you do. This post was especially broad based with a look many different charts. Certainly can't get more love than that for free. Be Well Bra
@MrYatesj1 Thanks so much for the nice comments. Keep in mind A) long term counts are subject to revisions over time (let's see if the triangle plays out for now!) and B) this is *very* long term. Indeed, I'm calling for a replay of sorts of the last 10-11 years. Prechter and his clones are calling for an even wilder scenario (ideally down to Dow 40 (prv 4th wave low circa 1932)). And sure, that could happen, but since he's been wrong since 1987 you have to ask, might there be an alternative?
@MrYatesj1 Also, the projection lines long term, in particular internal wiggles, should be given a lot of slack. It's difficult to draw these with precision when looking at 10-15 year patterns on a small chart. I'm really trying to just sketch out a very general picture. Eventually there will be a crisis from the debt issues. The main point I'm making is it might mean a drop from 15K to 5K Dow (rough round numbers) rather than a drop from here to Dow 40 ala RP.
@T1systems I feel ya Bill for sure I would not use a 6 year outlook as a forecast of anything I might do in the next month or so, but if things play out similar to you long term chart there will be really nice strong moves both up and down that could be very lucrative. Your words always ring true in the market and in life Bill, "One step at a Time" Peas'
@ednan9 Way too early to know about the 2007 high, but even super bear Prechter has acknowledged this is possible. It would make for a nice big flat from 2000.
Hi Bill, I tend to favor a move down to DOW 570, as it is the cycle wave 4 low, and the beginning of the great asset mania. Historically, the ending point of manias is below the start. Hopefully we switch monetary systems before ALL of the credit inflation from the 1930's is undone and we are at DOW 40.
ctrader09 7 months ago
@ctrader09 Sure it's possible. Essentially this has been Prechter's call since October 1987 when he said: "the Grand Supercycle bear market has begun"....targeting 40-381 Dow. Or how about circa Oct 1995, he said: "the message is unequivocal, portending a record setting collapse in stock prices...." when the Nasdaq was in the 500's (NDX eventually hit 4800). As a trader and analysts I have a set of expectations based on the patterns that I assume to be correct.
T1systems 7 months ago
@ctrader09 If the market doesn't confirm the pattern I'm looking for, then I look to re-evaluate. There's some evidence (24 years and 11,000 Dow points, *3400%* in the NDX) that RP's original assumptions are off. I think it's wise to have an open mind to an alternate scenario. The logical alternative is that we've had a series of 1-2's rather than 3-4's. How else do you explain the best Elliott Wave analyst in the world circa 1987 being so far off?
T1systems 7 months ago
@T1systems Certainly wise to have an open mind, but the reason Prechter was 5 years early in calling for the bear market to begin was that the 5th wave extended. He didn't account for that when he should have considering the size of the top that was building. Then it extended into 2007 with a divergence between the DOW and the COMP/NDX. There is a pattern on the DOW I am watching that is extremely bearish long term, and that is a megaphone top. this would allow one more all-time high.
ctrader09 7 months ago
@ctrader09 I guess you weren't around circa 1987, nor did you read my answer. Prechter called the top in 1987 @ NDX 137 or so. That's 13 years early no matter how you count it. Oct 22, 1987 if memory serves, just after that crash. So you're saying his 1987 count is "right" and it's just an extended 5th (2280% extention basis the NDX)?
T1systems 7 months ago
@T1systems No extended from 1995 when he turned decisively bearish with his first bearish book.
ctrader09 7 months ago
@ctrader09 He was decisively bearish in October 1987. He said : "the Grand Supercycle bear market has begun". Just because he didn't write a book that year, or some folks here weren't born yet, it doesn't change the fact. Here's the point: if the market extends 3400% beyond were it "should", it's likely you're off by a degree of scale. That's exactly what's happened, yet all the newbie "Elliotticians" cling to some variation of Prechter's original count....
T1systems 7 months ago
@T1systems The fact that it extended that far, if anything, would portend a bigger top than he expected, not a smaller one. Also regarding the CRB, commodities exhibit ABC overlapping patterns. So the the series of 1-2's isn't necessarily, or likely, correct.
ctrader09 7 months ago
@ctrader09 Look at your own copy of Prechter's long term count....call 1932 a 1-2 instead of (III)-(IV) (note there is no alternation in your/RP's (II) and (IV) waves). Also note *all* of your counts, even your "bullish alternate" counts, have been wrong (too bearish). The market is talking to you, but you only have ears for Mr Prechter's Super Cycle Bear song....
T1systems 7 months ago
@ctrader09 Google "CRB back to 1450" I count I-II-1-2-i-ii-iii on that chart.......what do you count please? The bottom line is we *don't* know exactly where we are in very long term counts.....
T1systems 7 months ago
Hi Bill- Are you still expecting 1275 range?
ghoshdd 7 months ago
Thanks Bill for your time and work in this! looking forward to watching more.
DiamondSponsoring 7 months ago
Great work Bill, particularly on the Dollar index... too many elliotticians have applied the Prechter dogma to this chart.
Keep up the great work
Max
Andronichuk 7 months ago
@Andronichuk Thanks so much Max. I hope you are well. As you know the long term Dow expanding triangle count is similar, if not the same, as long term counts you have posted. Google "500 year CRB". The 500 year CRB chart best counts as a series of 1-2's from the 1400's through the 1930's. *If* that's a surrogate for world growth, prices (growth) could be sideways to higher in the decades to come.... a few Dow 10,000 point declines not withstanding.
T1systems 7 months ago
@Andronichuk Also, what I often find inexplicable, is how complex and contorted folks make Elliott. At its core you are just trying to determine "is it impulsive or is it corrective"? Is it a five or a three? More often than not there's a simple clear more favored choice that a 5 year old would make. But most EW analysts rationalize their preconceived opinion with convoluted and bizarrely scaled counts. The 2008-09 dollar rally is a very good example.
T1systems 7 months ago
so buy stocks now and hold for the next 2 years, then sell the lot and buy long term puts
pipercolt1963 7 months ago
@pipercolt1963 Certainly not what I would do, nor would I suggest it. Even assuming we can perfectly predict the next six years without any updates to my forecast, you are looking at maybe 2000+/- Dow points against you at some point soon. Not my style dude. I don't like 10 Dow points against me. In fact I would be short here off the failed test of my 1358 target @SPX 1356.50.....
T1systems 7 months ago
Nice work. Thanks for posting.
BestTrades 7 months ago
Interesting look here Bill. The long term you posted is a whip saw man, from Dow 12K to 10K to 14K and then the bottom drops to 6k or a bit less. Wow, time to wax the board and ride what ever wave is upon us. Thanks so much for all the work you do. This post was especially broad based with a look many different charts. Certainly can't get more love than that for free. Be Well Bra
MrYatesj1 7 months ago
@MrYatesj1 Thanks so much for the nice comments. Keep in mind A) long term counts are subject to revisions over time (let's see if the triangle plays out for now!) and B) this is *very* long term. Indeed, I'm calling for a replay of sorts of the last 10-11 years. Prechter and his clones are calling for an even wilder scenario (ideally down to Dow 40 (prv 4th wave low circa 1932)). And sure, that could happen, but since he's been wrong since 1987 you have to ask, might there be an alternative?
T1systems 7 months ago
@MrYatesj1 Also, the projection lines long term, in particular internal wiggles, should be given a lot of slack. It's difficult to draw these with precision when looking at 10-15 year patterns on a small chart. I'm really trying to just sketch out a very general picture. Eventually there will be a crisis from the debt issues. The main point I'm making is it might mean a drop from 15K to 5K Dow (rough round numbers) rather than a drop from here to Dow 40 ala RP.
T1systems 7 months ago
@T1systems I feel ya Bill for sure I would not use a 6 year outlook as a forecast of anything I might do in the next month or so, but if things play out similar to you long term chart there will be really nice strong moves both up and down that could be very lucrative. Your words always ring true in the market and in life Bill, "One step at a Time" Peas'
MrYatesj1 7 months ago
Excellent. If I hear you correctly, likely S&P500 will test the old 2007 high and short term US dollar may drop?
ednan9 7 months ago
@ednan9 Way too early to know about the 2007 high, but even super bear Prechter has acknowledged this is possible. It would make for a nice big flat from 2000.
T1systems 7 months ago
@T1systems thanks - there is a slight possibility If I overlap the fundamentals. Ben bernanke has already hinted QE3.
ednan9 7 months ago