WEEKEND SPX S&P 500 September 9, 2011 Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Market Update

[sexymuhamed]

another alternative is this whole thing being a wave X flat....this fits into currenct cds situation and the state of the crisis we are in, which is pretty much half way to the finish line....abc up, and now going through abc down, and followed by 12345.....its also matches vix being higher than 2010 correction high, and normally means the low should be lower than that of 2010 correction.....if spx is indeed headed for 970, than it cannot be a wave 5, but is actually an abc correction

[nevadaxtube]

Thanks for the update. Keep up the good work.

[sexymuhamed]

not the right approach....wave 2 is a most certain buy.....as in july 2010, u dont know whats gonna follow.....this whole thing feets very well into a flat correction starting in 2010......interpreting ew like a donkey in a very long term is plain wrong!!!

[BearMarketInvestor]

@sexymuhamed What is right or wrong with investing strategy is up to the individual and their tolerance for risk. I prefer in a bear market to hold short positions and not long ones, as a new trend is in place. Elliott Wave is the same if you look at decades or the 5 minute chart. The rules are the same and they cannot be bent or ignored, or you are on your own. A flat correction is not possible if it is a counter-trend rally from the 2009 lows. This is because of wave overlap.

[BearMarketInvestor]

@sexymuhamed Either the wave structure is about to enter into a third of third wave, and that we are in wave 2 of 3 down, or we've topped in an ABC correction. It is possible to have a selloff that would introduce a double or triple three that began with a first zig-zag in 2009, but you can't expect or anticipate those. So as far as wave structure, I am able to to say that the highest probability event is that we are not going to enter wave 3 of 3 up. I cannot see any flat correction.

[sexymuhamed]

@BearMarketInvestor

no sir....ur approach is flawed as with many EW t/a'ers.......there are many alternatives.....none can be ignored....alternatives must be incorporated into candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, and moving average velocities, in order to arrive to most likely scenario.....u cant stick just to one count, and base ur long term trading strategy on it as u did in the video...

[BearMarketInvestor]

@sexymuhamed I respect your opinion, but I just ask that you be respectful yourself. I'm always interested to see other charts, if you wanted to create one and send it. That said, I don't see any possible flat formation. We did have a running flat, in my opinion, in the 4th wave of C, before terminating the fifth wave at a slightly lower price peak than the top of the flat, but higher than wave 3 of C.

[sexymuhamed]

april 2010 correction is not only a possible scenario, but is also the most probable scenario.....from 2009 wave 1 or A.....april-aug(not july) is sub wave A, then a double zigzag up to 1370, and now a wave C made of 5 impulse waves....is what constituted a flat....then of to a next primary wave up, whatever it may be...

i dont rely on this count, but see it as an alternative based on a larger scale count of a 9 year flat(2000-2009)

[sexymuhamed]

in the type of formation we are in now, especially taking macd into account, the most critical test will be the strength of the so called wave 2, and the low of the decline that will follow.....for reference take november-dec 2008, and july-aug 2010....there are identical cases but with a different key outcome in the last wave that determened further direction....an if u look closely jan 22 2008 is when it decoupled....

[sexymuhamed]

similarly, there the May-july 2008 case, which is abit different but it was followed after a corrective chop of march-May

[BearMarketInvestor]

@BearMarketInvestor What does seem possible to me is that we had Wave A terminate in January 2010, followed by an expanded flat terminating B wave in July of 2010. Then C wave up in five waves with a first of third wave extension. The problem with assuming something that you're talking about here, as a top count, is that you're talking the most simple and common EW correction, that this appears to be, and trying to make it into a very complex formation. This should not be a favored count.