Dow Jones Elliott Wave Analysis (10/03/2010) (Big Picture reviewed)

[bmw528i00]

I really hope your wave count is correct. The biggest problem I have with Prechter's count is something every Elliott technician should know better about: His Grand supercycle wave 2 (following the 1720's crash) ends BELOW the start of the wave 1. That's not wave 1 & 2. In my opinion, were in need of a correction yes, but more toward 5K and then back up.

[Andronichuk]

@bmw528i00 I think prechter is over doing it by making this news grabbing headlines rather than just focusing of short term action FIRST and longer term SECOND.

I think this idea of a massive bearmarket has blinded him and he is now forcing counts onto the charts that aren't really there.

[jdbrown371]

What charting program do you use?  I really like the continuous zoom.

[Mike3gdc]

Hey Max,interesting.thanks for your awesome work..however,if you look at monthly chart on DOW,you see a massive expanding flat with the C ended on March 09 and rally from march 09 is unfolding in 5 waves which in my view,is truncated 5th.

[TheBullBearReport]

For a bullish view using Elliott Wave visit w w w , TheBullBear . c o m

[pw200688018]

Love it. I actually agreed with your vedio, but the dow seems to be going higher so rethinking something else may have to been looked at soo. But tahnk you. I like the indebt detail.

[mattieho100]

Hi I think it has ending diagonal all over the wave to the all time high, fits with the very long wave 3.

[NocMonDude]

I believe you are missing the overall count since 1930. I count 5 clear waves up. The normal place for wave C to terminate is near the beginning of wave 4. That's around 550. I think Prechter has it right. Your count can work, but not when you take the larger view into account. It doesn't make sense. Wave 2 can retrace nearly all of wave 1.

[Andronichuk]

Hi NocMonDude, thanks for subscribing and thanks for the input.

The problem is that corrective waves (since the grand super cycle top) do not have to nessisarily be a crash... they can be a prolonged sideways movement (as in 1965-1975)... prechter has pretty much dismissed the idea that this is a real posibility... but it is.

Secondly, what he is calling a wave 1 from Oct2007-March 2008 I think I have a far more convincing A-B-C count... so it can't be impulsive...

[Jinxu27]

@Andronichuk I think you are neglecting the idea that a grand super cycle top implies that the following correction would be of the same degree.

[Andronichuk]

(continued)

And if it is not impulsive, and not a wave 1 (as he claims) then the market can infact make new highs above those of 2007!

This is key to keep in mind. And I think there is a real danger of this happening.

Tell me what you think.

[bmw528i00]

I like your count here. I have seen Prechter's count for the long-term DOW and I just find a few things odd with it: 1. He's comparing a US stock index to a London stock index from a few hundred years ago 2. His first ABC correction doesn't look too corrective and 3. Even if his count is correct, the Rule of Alternation states that another ABC decline cannot happen, instead we should be looking for an exaggerated sideways WXY or any complex declining pattern.

[straty01]

@NocMonDude nobody really knows but someone will have it right AFTER it has happened, as always

[ctrader09]

hey Andronichuk, great video. I've been thinking about that super cycle bottom within a larger grand super cycle bear market myself. One thing though, at 7:22 you show a 1-2-3-4-5 to form a, but that cannot be correct because wave 4 enters the price territory of wave 1, which is not allowed in Elliott Wave maybe its a w-x-y? (a-b-c-a-b-c-a-b-c)

[ctrader09]

(cont'd)

Also, something I am considering at the moment is that if the dow does exceed its 10,729 high, which is likely, that the move up to 10729 was  A of (Z), the move down to 9,835 was B of (Z) and the new high will be C of (Z). What do you think of that?

[Andronichuk]

I suspect that is what Robert Prechter may say if 10,729 is taken out...

but I think it would need to be carefully evaluated..

but certainly it is not impossible, so worth considering.

[Andronichuk]

the 1 and 4 overlap is allowed for because it is an expanding wedge pattern...

this is almost the opposite of a leading diagonal, just that the wedge is not contracting but expanding...

This pattern is know, but I do not think it is that well documented.

[candyliying]

other than those thoughts, really thank you for posting your videos. I feel shame for those who input negative words, not every one appreciate value and hard work, but you shall ignor those negative words and keep one trying and improving.

look forward to see your great job again

[Andronichuk]

Candyliying thank you for your kind words and imput, I will be sure to consider all you have said carefully.

I am looking to make a video explaining why I think prechter is wrong...

not just from a elliott wave case, but from an economics case...

His main comparison of today's market is to the great depression....

I have in the last week looked as some huge differences between that time and now and will be looking to share them in a video soon...

I think these differences are key.

[candyliying]

3rdly, Stock market is also related to/reflecting some real things around us. Unemployment rate is very high now. hard to increase interest rate now... and therefore, it is possible we are in the bear market

[candyliying]

2ndly, stock market move is not just math, In math, 1+1=2, but in stock market, could that be ok 1+1=2.235? So could it be hard for us to say "reaching FTSE5600, something will happen" I guess reaching FTSE5680 still could be in the arrange, so somthing may not happen yet, but may happen soon. Robert Precter is older than you, and mind his word in Feb 2009--"Dow will bounce back around 10,000", today Dow is 10,500, he is still right, around 10,000.

just a few thoughts, not important.

[candyliying]

HI, Max,

i have been watching your video for 1 month, just personal interest. i have no any wave analysis background. You really have done a great job, and hope to see your any video soon.

after watching your video from late Feb to now, i wish to tell you a few things:

1. maybe no graphic analysis in the world is perfect, all the graphs can show wrong things, and all people using the same graph methodology would argue, and this is what i observed in the stock news in our local newspaper

[lroxton]

Excellent videos. Keep up the good work!

Maybe they are a little on the long side but it's good to hear a thorough explanation of your reasoning. The sound quality is very poor though. It sounds like the recording level is set extremely high which is causing very bad distortion. A good quality mic would help and a way of controlling the recording level.

[me7md]

i sent a message

[me7md]

well done u did good job

but there is a big mistake in last wave(b)

in tz wave it must correcte 50% or more from tz wave ,, that 's elliottwave rules

[Andronichuk]

what must correct 50% of what?

I understand your talking about a tripple zig-zag...

but not sure what you are refering to that must correct 50%

[me7md]

i mean the next wave after tz wave it must correct

[me7md]

50% of wave tz

[SergLLLL]

Man you are tiring, 23 minutes should really be 8 minutes. Too much shiit! It is an over kill. "from so many trees , you can not see the forest".

[SergLLLL]

If you want to be taken seriously, do the following:

A) Cut the fucking crap! Get to the point!

B) Buy a Michrophone for $5. Do not use the shiity michrophone in your computer! The quality of sound is inferior!

C) Stop , Aaaaa, studering, Aaaaa, repeating, Aaaaa, using Aaaaa in between words. It is supper anoying.  You might as well talk very very very very very very slowly than using Aaaaa all the time between words. Did you ever hear Obama using Aaaaa? He gives great speaches!

[Andronichuk]

Will take it all into account.

You are right, 23 min is far too long and I will look to address the length of these videos and try to get them under 10 min long.

Appologies for the "aaaa"s...

but these videos are mainly recorded at around 1-2am so you will excuse me if am not able to smoothly express all I have to say.

[SergLLLL]

I am trying to help, are you telling me since it is 1-2AM you are talking softly, not to wake the wife/baby/roomate? Then even more so you need a good microphon.

Either way, you have to be and talk decicive! Watch Prechter talk. He is a scam bug , con artist in my opinion , but he sounds great like Obama who is a no good mother fucker bum.

Maybe you have to read from a piece of paper. Anuar Asaadat the former Egiptian president was a lousy speaker, But a great man.

[luvzpalin1]

valid arguement, just ONE small problem , Prechter is the only bear on youtube, check all the EW, s&p & stock market clips, contrary indicator?

[Schweizer135]

The last 5 minutes of the audio is garbled.

[Andronichuk]

Sorry about that Schwiezer...

looks like I'll have to repost this one...

The FTSE video also seems to have similar audio problems, so will try and get those redone soon.

[cosmicguerilla1]

very interesting ,

[orangequant]

the rally from march '09 to now is mildly convex, implying a downturn-- and i'm getting even nastier quant signals

[frank299]

Its not just Prechter who could be wrong - it's all the EWT who's been on the page till now. Including yourself - from what i've seen anyhow till now.

Surely, 1929 is no comparison. Simple fact dollar backed by gold in 29. Where as now it's a printer.

[frank299]

Nice video, Finally a EW chart not based on a Prechter paradigm