2008 Electoral College Prediction- Part 3

[videoguy604]

I think Obama will defeat John McCain.

[majordbag2]

Overall this a valid, albeit excessively optomistic (for conservatives) prediction. I'd say that Palin probably killed the Republicans chances for victory in that while she rallied strong support from the right, she rallied even stronger opposition from the left.

Personally, I've recently come to reject American conservatism but I really don't want to get into that other than saying living a few years in a right to work state (AZ) has definitely pushed me far to the left.

[snesich]

You're a genius, clearly.

Where did you study elections, or math, for that matter? On the back of a matchbook?

I think this is called "Wishful Thinking" from a dumb, delusional conservative.

Is your ass still sore from the severe kicking it took last month, dumbshit?

[theteenconservative]

1-This prediction was from JUNE.

2- (Message To Obama)... "Hey Barack, why are all of your supporters not following the 'inclusive', 'new politics' that you've promised?

[Lamarmusizz]

You were wrong wrong wrong...Thats you being very delusional we are just correcting you

[AtomikNY]

(Message to any polician)... "Hey polician who doesn't live in a dictatorship, why aren't all your supporters doing x?"

Response: Because this is a democracy, and our leaders do not control all our words and actions, moron.

[jumptotheledge]

In 1800 it was tied 73-73.

[kchauncey]

Tied, yes, but it wasn't the Electoral College. Back then it was the House that cast their votes for president.

[caffeine4671]

This just in.......Johnny lost.

Good Night Sweet Prince. :)

[TMAC33000]

Well...you were terribly wrong.

[jayinmaine]

I'm embarrassed for the states that voted Republican.....in the 21st century they voted for a 20th century politician using 19th century thinking

[BRunk84]

thats a pretty ignorant thing to say. No matter who you voted for, I myself am a moderate who voted for McCain, but ironically I am very excited about an Obama presidency. Your comment actually shows that YOU have the 19th century thinking because of your narrow-mindedness and ability to accept that not everyone shares your political view.

[jayinmaine]

so let me see..you voted for a 72 yo man(who individually doesn't scare me)who chose someone to take over as president if he died who is less qualified than me,and believe me I am nowhere near qualified. The very fact that you voted for a possible Palin presidency in a nuclear age shows that the ignorant status bounces back to you.Isnt it swell you suddenly like Obama when I was concerned for the survival of the nation first and foremost.You worry about gay marriage.I worry about existance!

[theteenconservative]

What would Palin do?

[jayinmaine]

With her belief that Jesus will return in her lifetime? FRIGHTENING!! Fortunately now that she's exposed as an incompetent,she will never get near the White House. Many of my friends have already said they wil donate to her campaign knowing she's unelectable

[BRunk84]

I thought you said that I voted for a 19th century person? now your saying McCain's ok and its Palin. PLEASE! Why don't you actually look up the experience that she does have and realize that your ignorance is an abomination. why don't you actually do research instead of conforming to what society "tells" you to think because that is exactly what has happened to you.

[jayinmaine]

Palin's experience?like she's actually done well? she believe's the bible literally? If you even possibly consider Palin as a viable candidate,then you are one of 'those people',and beyond debating. I don't give a crap if you like Obama or not.

[BRunk84]

Oh please. your so narrow minded its sick as well as judgmental. You need to seriously stop being an ass and go do research! Palin's approval rating is the highest of any governor in the country! The fact you say "im beyond debating" just means you don't even know how to debate someone. I don't care that you don't care if I like Obama or not. Don't even bother to respond if you don't check out her executive experience.

[jayinmaine]

The high approval rating is proof of how stupid the electorate is! The country hadnt seen enough after Bush's first four years? Honestly I don't want the United States like Obama wants. I want red states and blue states to become separate nations. What a country of idiots!

[Spazman173]

Ohio doesn't tend to be anything. It's a tossup in almost every election.

Also, you have to be high if you think McCain is going to get into the 200s.

[yoman258]

Actually if you look in the past elections, the party who won Ohio won the election. There wasn't a time when a party got Ohio and didn't win the election. (In the past 5 or 6 elections) or so.

[AmbientMusicII]

Well researched and well done video! I think it will be a statistical 'dead heat' as well, hence going to the House for the ultimate decision. Peace.

[chrishollis]

Fox News is fair and balanced for a conservative viewer. Liberals watch fox news for entertainment value - its like watching Saturday morning cartoons.

MSNBC is like anti-fox news - except everybody know it's biased and know its in the tank for democrats. Dumb conservatives are not wired to see that fox news is biased towards republicans. Mainstream media is left-leaning because its a democratic year (Hello!!).

You must understand how the media works and who owns these corporations.

[Stincil]

The media has always been left leaning.Not just MSNBC, but all of it, NBC, CBS, ABC,NPR, etc. That's why Fox came into being, to fill a void.

The media is left leaning because it's a democratic year? What does that mean, they're unbiased at other times? You must understand you have been brainwashed.

[tellesr84]

Fox doesn't fill a void so much as creating one.

[goomba008]

aah the good old "left media" delusion. What does it mean when almost everyone seems to be biased? That you're the one out of touch with reality.

[IraMcGurkin]

Yeah, sure. Another clueless canadian chimes in.

[goomba008]

Sure buddy. Keep thinking that a hate spewing, fact distorting, racism stirring network like Fox News is the counterbalance to the "left-wing" media. You'll wake up in 50 years realizing how great your country was or could have been before the religious morons took over. Grow up or watch the world evolve without you.

[IraMcGurkin]

...hate spewing, fact distorting, racism stirring network like CBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, NPR, PBS......

Fuck off.

[goomba008]

Proves my point. All you can do is take my argument and say "NOO IT'S ALL THE OTHERS NOT MY BELOVED FOX". Exactly what a child would do. "no it's you!". Try getting out of your little comfort zone and realize what a mess of a country you are, maybe then you can start fixing it.

[IraMcGurkin]

It is you. If you can't see media bias for what it is then you are a simpleton in the truest sense of the word. Again, fuck off.

[tellesr84]

Amen to most of that. However, MSM is not left-leaning because it's a Dem year. CNN and even MSNBC have brought up Ayers, Wright, and all of Obama's supposed "skeletons" and they consult with adults and other real news organizations to discover what we like to call in the fact based world, "evidence". Ever hear Fox bring up McCains bigot pastor problems? Or how about his GOP ACORN groups?

[philip0460]

New Hampshire is going Obama. So this video is moot.

[highwater03]

NH- Obama

[tellesr84]

Nevada? Florida? Ohio? Virginia? North Carolina? West Virginia? Missouri? Granted the kid made this 269-269 prediction MONTHS AGO! At that time I would have said McCain wins. I think though that given the leads Obama has built in the above listed states, and he will win NH, he will easily cruise into the POTUS office. Good riddance to wing-nut rule! 2000-2006, the Republican Revolution is dead... one can only hope. If McCain wins I'll support it but I won't like it.

[pnollen]

Woooo-Hoooo! I can't wait until January 20th. 2009 when G.W.Bushhog is FINALLY out of office! I'll surely be partying!

[FreedomAintFree1]

My facts are based on history. Do I really have to say that I am making my point based on the FACTS of HISTORY?

Ok, so here is WHY polls are bias for Democrats.... HISTORY SHOWS US THIS.

Show me a few polls where a Republican came out WORSE than was expected. PLZ. I gave you many HISTORIC RESULTS of polls.

[theteenconservative]

I would like to know when those polls were taken. There's a change between a poll conducted in February and one on November 3. Were those HISTORICAL polls taken within a week of election day?

[ty99999returns]

ur mic whistles loudly, u should get that fixed FTY.

[FreedomAintFree1]

You seem to forget that once we have an actual debate between Obama and McCain, Obama will lose all credibility... and McCain wins by Landslide.

Reagan recieved 525 out of 538 electoral votes in these same circumstances.

[Jaric55]

Oh, I get it. You were joking. You meant to say that after the debates, Obama will display REAL change, while McCain panders for sympathy. The polls will reflect this, and Obama will win.

[FreedomAintFree1]

No, you don't get it. I wasn't joking.

Just wait for the first debates. Obama is ALREADY running scared with the Palin choice... and making BAD DECISION after BAD DECISION.

[Jaric55]

Okay dude. You just keep thinking that. It'll make you feel better until the actual debate happens, since the polls until won't be making you happy.

[FreedomAintFree1]

I can't reall make out your last sentence, unless you meant "Since the polls until THEN won't be making you happy." If you add THEN to your comment, it would be more easily understood.

But I AM happy with the polls. Considering they have ALWAYS been over-estimated FOR the democrats. ALWAYS. Research it.

Obama is screwing up lately. Just watch the mistakes now that he is on defense!

[Jaric55]

Actually, polls are biased toward Republicans for two reasons:

1)They are conducted over a wide area range, in order to get a representative sample, but that favors those living outside concentrated areas. Cncentated cities favor Democrats, while open country favors Republicans.

2)The polls are conducted through huse phone, which favors older constituencies which tend to vote more Republican. Younger voters, which tend to vote Democratic, are more likely to only answer a cell.

[FreedomAintFree1]

Something tells me that even if Polls have ALWAYS leaned Democratic since they began, you would not admit it.

[Jaric55]

Umm...no it depends on the facts. I don't know about the past, but I know now that the polls favor those belonging to the constituencies above. I also didn't mention that poorer people, who don't have a house phone, also go unrepresented in the polls. Poorer people tend to vote Democratic. I'm willing to listen to why it is you think the polls overfavor the Democrats.

[FreedomAintFree1]

1976 Gallup Poll - Carter 62% - Ford - 30% Result: Carter 50% - Ford 48% 1980 Pre-Election Poll-Carter 44% -Reagan 41% Result: Carter 41% - Reagan - 51% 1988 Pre-Election Poll Dukakis 49% - George Bush 39% Result: Dukakis 46% -Bush 53% 1992 -Perot 37% -Bush 24% -Clinton 24% Result: Perot 18% -Bush 37% -Clinton 43% 2000 -Bush 39% -Gore 49% Result: Bush 48% -Gore 48.4% Notice how in EVERY CASE the actual result of Republican percentage of popular vote skyrockets. HISTORY.

[Jaric55]

These polls are irrelevant. These are national polls. The state polls are the ones that matter. Those are the polls I'm referring to.

[FreedomAintFree1]

Polls are Polls! And they ALL lean Democrat until the end. State polls are the same, but on a smaller scale.

Do you get what I am saying? I have a feeling I am going to have to explain this again and again, just like I have to do with every other liberal I come across.

[Jaric55]

Liberals are doing there job in challenging your beliefs that aren't based on reality, and I will do the same. You are delusional if you think that ALL polls favor Democrats until the end. You're just dead wrong. I get what you are saying, but you are incorrect. Just becuase state polls are smaller in scale, doesn't shed the facts that they are actually biased toward Repubclians, for the reasons given above. You still have not given a WHY, like I have.

[joeyjj3]

You can't make the case that all polls -- the hundreds conducted EVERY WEEK -- are biased with evidence of single, unspecified, obviously incorrect polls from years ago. Give me a break. Or just learn some statistics.

[FreedomAintFree1]

Last time joey... What I am saying is that polls have ALWAYS been bias to Democrats IN THE END. The end meaning the DAY OF ELECTION.

If you gather all the info... just add 6-20 points for Republicans and you get the REAL result.

Got it?

Pollsters are more democratic than republican anyways. Why wouldn't the polls be bias?

[bobbyseatbobs]

fox even goes to obama most fox viewers are republicans

[FreedomAintFree1]

I guess fox new IS fair and balanced.

[bobbyseatbobs]

thatsa joke right pls be joke

[FreedomAintFree1]

LOOK, just becasue Fox News is the voice for conservatives, and favors conservative views, DOES NOT MEAN that it is bias.

First thing I heard on a Fox News panel after the 2nd debate... someone said Obama won it.

Go to CNN and you see James Carville stating thatriots might occur if Obama does not win the race. CNN won't report that DEMOCRATS failed to reform Fannie and Freddie back in 2005.

You are sheltered from the truth. CNN - ALL BIAS, ALL BULL.

[bobbyseatbobs]

yes basing you opoinin on 50 seconds nice

[bobbyseatbobs]

omg shut up fox gave palin experince with her brilant abilty to see russhia. whil attacking obama

[FreedomAintFree1]

EXECUTIVE Experience means YOU decide the last word on what happens... compared to Obama's LEGISLATIVE Experience where he Votes "PRESENT" or "NO"

If you think you can Govern a whole state without any Executive Experience, then you are SADLY mistaken.

[bobbyseatbobs]

omg do you undrstand this fox is bias abilty to se russhia gives you no experince. im not talking about experince im talking about foxes bias another thing they said obama hasent went south of our border at all which he has if you dont think fox is biass then i feel sorry for you

[joeyjj3]

Looks like you were wrong.

[Jaric55]

I think you overrate McCain's chances in VA, NH, FL, OH. The polls suggest (at least today/Sep. 7) that Obama is winning in OH and NH, and that VA is an exact tie. The polls are biased anyway toward McCain...becuase it's conducted through House Phone..which is more likely to be picked up by older (and more likely republican) person...rather than the Democratic leaning cell phone young crowd.

[lazslotatherton]

Kerry took New Hampshire last time and the Republicans are way less popular now than they were. Obama shows a narrow lead there in most poles. NH goes to Obama. It's Colorado that seems more of a toss up to me.

[KaesoBrutus]

Jews are typically liberals.

[loismarill]

USA just realized that he's a citizen of the world minus the US. That's the way he's ALWAYS been. (Kenya, Indonesia, 57-states (that's how many are in the 'united states of islam' Organisation for the Islamic Congress) It's fine to be a 'citizen of the world' but NOT when you're running for the presidency of the United States of America.

Search:

Obama: Global Poverty Act = World tax

Obama:Petition,Congress,Pelosi

PLEASE RE=POST!

[ACeast4321]

virginia will swing obama u idiot

[DiverseLA]

Hispanics side with Obama. Women side with Obama. Young voters side with Obama. Blacks side with Obama. The swing voters will decide the election.

[nickdball3]

Well dude I know someone from Jersey and he says that Blacks and Hispanics dont't get along that well. Now that isnt that the case all the time but he said for the most part.

[DiverseLA]

Good for them. I'm talking about Hispanics nationwide. Roughly 70% of Hispanics are supporting Obama.

[BrynMawrYamBag]

And how many of these Hispanics are not illegal immigrants operating on stolen ID's...I wonder how many cemeteries have Democratic voters too...It always works in Chicago and Maryland.

[DiverseLA]

This is in reference to Hispanics that can vote, not illegal immigrants.

[DiverseLA]

This map sucks. Obama will take New Hampshire and Florida. He'll also take Virginia. There are also a couple of traditionally-Republican states in the southeast that are now battleground states, along with states that are in the vicinity of Illinois that have now become battleground states.

[theteenconservative]

Why don't you tell me how you really feel?

[DiverseLA]

I feel that Obama will win the election. Hooray for America!

[BrynMawrYamBag]

If Obama wins I predict Conservatives of both parties taking Congress....Barring the civil war that Obama and his Marxist and domestic terrorist friends will cause with their incredibly treasonous agenda.

[EvelJustin24]

Ok dude there is no way in hell that John McCain is going to win New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton will campaign hard there for him and he will take that state easily. The rest of your prediction seems correct except Nevada...I think he may have a nice turnout in the Metro areas like Las Vegas and Reno.

[dominicpodom]

Well done. I am glad that you don't let your partisanship get in the way of your prediction. Anyway like you said we still have a long way and anything can happen. My prediction was almost exactly the same as yours except I put N.H as being blue.

[acb06172005]

You're giving Obama too much credit. Once the general public realizes how ultra-liberal and ultra-inexperienced he is, he'll be lucky to get over 100 electoral votes.

[greg2009]

I disagree because sticking the ultraliberal-inexperienced label doesn't scare people like it used to. I think young voters and white men will be the swing vote in this country. White men wll shy away from obama because they tend to dislike anyone label ultra-liberal. And young people will come out because they like liberals. If this prediction is true this will be divided polarized electorate again like in 2000 and 2004. Nothing will get accomplished!

[acb06172005]

I'm not just sticking a label on him; he IS ultra-liberal (most liberal voting record in the Senate, at least when he's not taking the easy way out with all those "Present" votes) and the most inexperienced (one term in state legislature, not even 2/3 of a term in the US Senate, and that's it). I do commend you though, for making your analysis fair and balanced. That can be somewhat hard to find/do these days (or any days for that matter; in the 1800s partisanship was even WORSE).

[DiverseLA]

Wrong. Because even given the minimum amount of states that Obama's guaranteed to win (base states), it comes out to around 190 electoral votes.