TPMtv: Pennsylvania Post-Game

[charlie1der]

That was one of the most informative reports I have seen in a while. This sure sounds a helluva lot more fair and balanced than that other stuff I see on TV. Crazy...?  Crazy like a fox!

[indi4bo]

If you know who Jean S. Pierre is? you would know what it means to be respectful to you opponents, but beat the crap out off them.

Respectfull,

Integrity,

Sportsmanship.

Winner,

Consistency,

Inspiring,

Delivering,

Those are trademarks of an awesome leader.

Obama is a team player, he is the new political game in town.

[theastrusmega]

"Josh Marshall, wants Hillary to win."

...thats what I got from this video..thank God Greg Sargent kept it real, w/ real Math.

/watch?v=zuv86WqfIvU

[shockingtruths]

Bullshit.

Pennsylvania is the second oldest state in the US by age of voters. Old people like the illusion of stable government, even if it means the very Bush-Clinton American decline that caused their kids to move to NC, West and South... Hillary is a like a wish for them, to go back to the corrupt Enron "good" old days.

Meanwhile, Hillary brought NY -50,000 jobs, after promising 200,000.

Her lying, fears and smears will eventually change minds of these old timey voters in PA and OH!

[shockingtruths]

Hillary puts up $1,000 dollars, and gets $100,000 back on her futures trade with Don Tyson the Chicken king.

Clinton friend Bob Johnson puts up $15,000 dollars and turns it into $3 Billion on the sale of BET cable to Viacom.

And Terry MacAuliffe puts up $100 dollars and makes $2.5 million from it on the sale of the commercial property.

These people relate with working class people... well, they sure seem to know how to get things done anyway... (for themselves).

[govspysonallchats]

Look an obamabot paid to be on camera, now we all know one of the obama goons that come to the clinton ralleys and can toss him out with the trash if he rears his bias head :D

[nembhard600rr]

anyone votes for mccain or hillary i will send my cousin to your house so you may see where his leg was..Why aren't their children enlisted why did they have to vote for a war on a popular vote..Now my cousin is missing his legs and has lost his mind never to be the same..His wife left and his health care sucks so fuck hillary and fuck mcsame i really don't mean to curse but you idiots here are pissing me off and your very racist and your kids will face the brunt of your racism if u don't CHANGE

[govspysonallchats]

nembhard obama funded the war every time a vote came up, you dont know much :D

[CANTvoteHillary]

Hillary wants to bomb-bomb Iran too, apparently.

Hillary voted for the war in Iraq.

Hillary supported the war AFTER her vote.

Hillary voted for the Kyl Lieberman amendment.

Hillary is a hawk - and I don't believe her when she says she will withdraw troops from Iraq...

[govspysonallchats]

obviously the loser is the jerk that is disenfranchising florida voters to win the election. Wow i didnt ever heard that before OH WAIT 2000 Bush election. Oh wait isnt obama bush's cousin... and they use the same tactics to win elections? Oh no he isnt a republican plant is he. Duh. Freaking cult members cant see the forest from the trees ;)

[Zile77]

The only reason the dem race is still on is because they need to keep sucking away the money from morons who don't yet realize the election was decided over a month ago.

Dems lost again because the electorate can't risk America losing the WOT with an inexperienced, appeasingly weak liberal president. There is far too much invested, and much more to go before the mission is complete.

Long live president McCain!

[alv1023johsaw]

Kennedy, Kerry, Dean and Palosi, can you explain why your beloved kid Obama is so scared of debate in NC? What an excuse for not debate, "schedule conflict!" what schedule more important than showing that you are right one? American people deserve a president who stands strongly in debate what he claims and believes, rather than who scares so deeply debate. Obama escaped from debate in Winscosin, now he plans to escape in NC. What is he hiding and afraid? Obamanians,can you ask him?

[jimbojim68]

Josh, you guys always cut through the BS and find the right story.

[osiris33]

that bitch play nasty, that's not what I need

[Titan2Clash]

What I don't think Obamaphiles are taking into consideration is that Obama's demographic strengths' are with the "liberal wing" of the democratic party. The well to do college educated, blacks, and young voters. Traditionally that constituency isn't ever going to vote Republican. Where as Clinton's constituency is heavily more likely to be attracted to McCain should she not be the democratic nominee. Hers being the moderate-conservative democrat. Which IMO makes her the stronger candidate.

[freff]

She's got her demographic, and Obama has his. Their policies are very similar, so it's been difficult for them to break into the other's voting blocks. Clinton has vigorously defended her coalition to the point of endorsing McCain over a fellow Democrat. She's really pissed people off, and for this reason you can't count on the "liberal wing" or young voters to come back to her. Not to mention that they've pissed off black voters to the degree that they've lost them 9 to 1 to Obama.

[freff]

In a matchup against McCain however, the policy differences will be stark. He wants 100 years of war. He wants to bomb bomb bomb Iran. He admits he's weak on the economy. He has to defend Bush's war and his tax breaks and his economy, and if you've paid attention to him, it's clear that HE CAN'T. On policy, McCain is toast!

Give people a chance to listen to a real Democrat with the ability to explain policy in a way people get against McCain, and he will pull his share of swing voters.

[Titan2Clash]

The "liberal wing" may be pissed @ Hillary, but truth be told I think the majority will still vote for her over a republican. Worst case scenario for her is that the "liberal wing" stays home instead of voting for her. But Obama's worst case scenario is that "Regan democrats" will go to the Maverick republican, McCain. I doubt they will stay home because Obama is the democratic candidate. I honestly believe a bigger chunk of them will vote republican over Obama if he wins over Hillary.

[freff]

I disagree. Worst case scenario for Obama is he loses the older white workingclass voters to McCain and has to conduct a vigorous battle for Latinos out west and suburbanites across the country to make up votes in key areas.

Clinton's worst case is she loses black votes which Democrats rely on much more than the "white working class" vote as well as possibly losing the "liberal" vote and has to fight with Mr. Media-Friendly for voters that simply don't trust her. Suddenly, NY is in play...

[Titan2Clash]

Are you saying the African American vote will break republican if Hillary is the nominee? I don't know anyone that believes that. I agree that Democrats have relied heavily on black voters during the Democratic primary, but once the candidate is in the general election, it isn't the black voter they have struggled to get. It is middle white America, the largest group of voters, that the democrats have to fight for in order to get the presidency. That is just historically how it always goes.

[freff]

While blacks may not break Rebublican anytime soon, the justifacation from the Clinton camp to take the nomination from Obama has become even though he's beaten her in every measurable metric, he simply can't win and doesn't deserve the nomination. Couple that with some of the rhetoric that has eminated from the Clinton camp during this process that has played poorly to many black voters, and the potential for large scale disintrest from the African American community in this election exists.

[freff]

The good news is that both of them are outpolling McCain even while beating each other up. The interesting thing is that they are BOTH losing those "white working class" voters Clinton is pointing to. Anyone not voting for Obama due to race (or Wright or flagpins, etc) is already pretty much firmly in McCain's camp. However if Clinton has a problem with blacks as highlighted by Rep Clyburn's recent comments, then good luck with MI, Ohio, PA and many other large states she'd be relying on.

[freff]

Basically, what I'm saying is that everyone wants to say that Obama has electability issues, but when you dig into the numbers it's clear that at this point it's CLINTON who has some very real electability issues. And like their caucuses and small states don't matter approach earlier, saying black votes don't matter now (which is basically the argument, as it's assumed blacks will turn out for her no matter what) doesn't help.

[indi4bo]

I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY.

She's a trashy person. NOT A TEAM PLAYER. She does not belong in the Democratic Party. She is in bed with republicans.

Obama brushes it off. He is a team player.He doesn't knock her out with her own shit, because he respects a woman, Obama is a gentleman with integrity. U r a fool if u confuse gentleman-ness with weakness.

BUT after he is nominated...

ARE YOU SCARED??? HE WILL BARE KNUCKLE FIST THE CRAP OUT OF REPUBLICANS. just wait ..

are you scared???

[MertensCW]

Like Kerry? a man with a proven military service.

Like Kerry fought back... yea, sure he will.

Obama is soft and that's just what he is, there is no changing that.

Clinton has a more proven formula to win. Obama's mix is really risky and the fact Obama fits the Kerry mold is not a plus.

[MikeDavinroy]

This is the best analysis of the race I've seen ANYWHERE. Great job Josh.

[2025DPlaza]

I predict the majority of Obama's votes will be from black people, as they will not care what his political platform is; they see him as a way to gain the ascendancy over whites at long last!

[rydar1978]

I been looking at reported demographics on various sites. Hilliary seems to get the majority of votes from "white women" no matter what she does or says!!

[nembhard600rr]

like Obama said we are still a racist country and it has really taken it's toll on me I'm sick of fucking racists..go back to the country your ancestors came from and if you do not like blacks then apologize for slavery stop mentally oppressing them and buy them all a house and and acre in Africa and send back all the immigrants who came before the civil war because if racism continues here there will be a black revolution especially when they know racism still exists after hangings and rapings

[2025DPlaza]

Then, there will be the nose-in-the-air, white college grads, who think they are showing their superiority by voting 'black.' And, last but not last, there are the 'white guilt' voters who think they will expiate their guilt for slavery they had nothing to do with by voting for a black. What a farce! They will sell out their country for such stupid reasons, by voting for a racist, condescending man who hasn't the experience nor the ability to run a dog-fight, let alone a great nation!

[PreetSG]

I am an Asian independent who supports Obama. Why? Like most EDUCATED Americans (College diploma and above), I agree with Obama on the issues. I know he has been right, on Iraq, on Bhutto assassination (He proclaimed in August last year that Bhutto would be killed by Feb this year if she came back on Oct 16), on green economy (one that Hillary said was impossible till 3 months ago when McCain and Obama were left) on education and so on. We know what we are voting for and we vote for the best!

[rydar1978]

Its amazing the stupid arguments people come up wit to discredit Obama. His mama, sister he grew up with, and his grandmother who raised him is WHITE. Its amazing people far away who him only threw the media calls him racist, but NOT his sister, white relatives, or friends of the family. Don't you think one of those people come forward and make themselves famous and rich if the guy was a racist?

[2025DPlaza]

"Oh no, she is going negative...not our perfect little boy/MAGIC Negro."

I'm going to go chop my dick off...BRB.

WTF do you think is going to happen once we get the nominee, you miserable fools?!

[UGOTDAJACK]

nope..she does have an option. She's just at a point where she will do anything to win the election. If she cant win the election fare and square then she will attempt to step it just like bush did. Remember, she is rich so she doesnt give a fuck who wins if it is not her

[MillerManMusic]

Nice rundown of everything =)

[Bolgernow]

Josh, THANK YOU and everyone at Veracifer for all your great work!

If you send me a t-shirt, I'll wear it in shows...wordy word up!

[duck1414]

Thanks PA !!

[voyzovrezon]

Good analysis, except the part about Clinton and Obama "clobbering each other." It's Clinton who is doing the clobbering.

[freff]

What he means is that in becoming as negative as she has, she is consistently raising her own negatives, and in the process giving the entire party a black eye. It's a strategy that is helping no one but McCain, but Clinton is at the point where she has no better options.

[SwissCross]

IMHO, if Americans knew on Super Tuesday, what we know about Obama now, Hillary would have won Super Tuesday. And the Democratic party would have almost certainly gone on to win the upcomming election.

As it stands now the democratic party is bitterly divided and will need a miracle to beat the Straight Talk Express, no matter who the Super Delegates choose to run against him.

[oolong2]

IMO you've fooled yourself into thinking this race changes from week to week. Which IMO is the fault of the media constantly trying to make headlines.

This race has been pretty steady since IOWA. Obama win's a state, hillary wins a state, and vice versa.

They have been pretty evenly matched since the start however the trend has always been slightly in Obama's favor particularly in the national polls. I really don't see anything changed...

[PharaohNineD]

No No it shows that if he can't flick this flea off for good. How is he gonna beat Gran'pappy John?

It's not like McCain is out there saying dumb things that will not sit well with voters or anything. So lets talk about Clinton some more.

With the MSM, Bilary, and McCain after him *sigh*. Lets all vote for Nader and then pretend we ain't screwed nothing up by doing that ;-7

[dogstar7]

Most of these polls and surveys are taken from a pool of "likely voters", that is: voters who cast their ballots in two or more general elections.

The story this year, however, has been the number of new voters registering in the Democratic primaries...as many as 2 or 3 times as many as in past general election years.

Couple that with neo-Con backlash against McManiac and I can see an easy Democratic win in November (Obama, of course)

[BOOTLEGGUY2010]

I have two questions.

1) Does Obama look like a guy who has lost?

2) All that time campaigning in PA and he lost?!... Can we expect the same thing come November?

3) Why is there a third question?!

4) Is it me or do blue-collared voters not like Obama?

5) WHY ARE THERE MORE THAN TWO QUESTIONS?!

Could someone please answer my questions. (in the order they were given in)

[DamNationDiplomat]

1) Not really. Hillary has so much political capital in the bank that she's able to look like a serious candidate even though she's fast approaching Huckabee country mathematically speaking.

2) The PA loss was a foregone conclusion by practically any number cruncher or political scientist you ask; he has consistently looked better than Clinton in national polls VS McCain, but the longer the primary runs, the worse those numbers look for BOTH of them.

[DamNationDiplomat]

3) Because you're inquisitive

4) That's the 'demographic' issue with Obama, but blue collar white men are typically republican anyway, and the 'oldschool union steel-workers' will pretty much vote democrat without too much arm twisting because democrats tend to be better on worker justice issues and labour rights.

5) Limits are for those who seek limited knowledge.

[FeelFreeToArgue]

I think all these polls are seriously skewed at this point. People don't like thinking that their candidate might not be the nominee, so I think most Dems bury that thought and hope things turn out in their favor. These poll questions force that eventuality out of the closet and make them confront it, which I think will harm the Dems, who are still deciding, far more than the Reps, who know it's McCain they're getting. Good analysis as far as it goes, just don't try to take it too far.

[moreaudan]

The Clear Skies Initiative, Help America Vote (HAVA). HAVA does not require a paper record of voters' ballots. Two PRIVATE companies, ES&S and Diebold, count 80% of the vote. Senior executives for these 2 separate companies are BROTHERS. Bob and Todd Urosevich. How about a "Help America Count the Vote Act"?

[hippieCy08]

yeah...kinda like how McCain lacks behind that weak-willed Obama in every public poll where Americans prefer him over 2 crazy McBush!

Obama is stronger against McCain in the all important swing states....like Washington, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, and New Hampshire (109 EC's).

[fistnbone]

So, Hillary performs like a Kerry or Gore on a whole? Even more reason why I hope Obama gets the nomination... though I may personally vote Nader in November.

[eggnoggerino]

yeah, please vote for Nader! The country needs McCain to be president!

[fistnbone]

McCain is exactly what this country deserves if they take that weak-willed attitude of voting for the least worst...

[jajacko22003]

those working class folks think hillary clinton will bring back those factory jobs that they lost... she wont wake up!!

[oldbaldy129]

Nice shirt, Joshua. The Democratic Party must unite, no matter who the nominee is!!!

[Devin1498]

If Florida and Michigan aren't counted and Obama is the nominee the Democrats will lose them in the general.  Hows that for electoral college?

[hippieCy08]

excellent analysis. Its very true that Obama beats McCain in states Dem hasn't won in yrs, while Clinton has the same old industrial state typical for democrats.

Hillary's victory in Ohio and Pennsylvania does not mean Obama or herself would win or lose against a Republican.

[Devin1498]

McCain beats Obama in Massachusettes.  It appears that all Barack will do-at best-is move the party's electoral college.

[culverapex]

Honestly, even if the Dems don't get their act together before the convention, the real fight doesn't take place until right before election day. All of the dirt the Dems aren't pointing at McCain is probably being saved for when it matters. Do remember, that what happened last week is quickly forgotten by the voters. Maybe all of this heavy handed battling is on purpose?

[Madmoe77]

Then the real question is-if Hillary and Obama are strong together in the race, with either/or a possible VP or President; then who would be McCain's possible running mate? Not enough attention is put on that. Ultimately if McCain dies then who would replace him? This could be the question to solve the gap.

[Drstrangelove17]

I wish Obama and Clinton would settle their differences after all this is over and take the other on as a vice presidential candidate. That would be such a strong team!

[ikekll]

Election coverage is boring. I wanna know why Dick Cheney was in Saudi Arabia not long ago.

"Saudi Newspaper: Prepare for Nuclear Strike on Iran

March 29, 2008

According to Chris Floyd at the Empire Burlesque web site:

The Saudi government is now preparing plans to deal with "any sudden nuclear and radioactive hazards" that may arise from an attack on Iran's nuclear reactors. This was reported by a top Saudi newspaper, Okaz, and relayed by a leading German news service, DPA ...

[ikekll]

one day after Dick Cheney paid a visit to the kingdom...As we noted, no one knows what was said at that confab of allied authoritarians —but something sure lit a fire under the Saudis, and convinced them that urgent action is needed to brace for the lethal overspill from a strike on Iran.

Floyd points out that nothing in SA becomes the top news story w/o gov approval. That such a story should be released the day after Cheney's visit, sends a message to everyone about what's on Cheney's mind."

[ikekll]

"Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries India's largest private oil and gas company, has awarded U.S.-based upstream services provider Halliburton's Energy Services Group a US$35 million contract for the provision of deepwater sand control completion technology in the Dhirubhai-1 and Dhirubhai-3 fields offshore India."

[jenniferann2]

When my personal crisis began a few years ago, people would say it always gets worse before it gets better. Maybe that conventional wisdom is true. Oh, and looking back, wow were they right.

[KLNDR]

Good breakdown analysis. Thanks for the insight and stats, Mr. Marshall.

[MojoJuana]

forget "rocky"...more like "alien" where the bitch just won't die.

[dogstar7]

LOL! Now that's funny!

[captaincracklins]

Maybe it's just indicative of my cynicism, but I wonder if a McCain victory might actually be best in the long-term. Sure, Clinton would be a disaster, but McCain would be an unmitigated disaster. Four more years of crisis, crushing debt, and kleptocracy might force America into the kind of universal crisis is needed for real change. It saddens me to think these thoughts, but things might have to get far worse before they get can better.

[wntoply6]

captaincracklins, i couldn't agree with you more!

if mccain gets in, there is no change what so ever. arrogance from the white house continues.

however, if either hillary or obama get in & they fail, it will only give the republicans more power. forget the problems created by the republicans are almost unsolveable, the blame would be on the dems hands; they will be viewed as incompetent.

let mccain have the problems, fail to solve them, then be thrown out on his "hero" ass in 2012!

[EricJaffa]

If 8 years of George W. Bush didn't create the "crisis...needed for real change" then neither will 4 more years of a Republican in the White House.

Vote for the Democrat in November.

[newsweekrocks]

If the countries infrastructure collapses or weakens to a great extend, if people feel the misery with their bones, then believe me they will ask for a change. Right now Most Americans are high and mighty. Let's face it, yesterday's election proved people are not worried about anything, they want to go back to what they were before. That's not change. That's "I don't care" attitude. That's being lazy, thinking everything will just go back to good old days.

[Devin1498]

Ah George W. Bush, the uniting candidate, who only had a scant few years of experience when he ran, but was highly charismatic to Southern voters.

[freff]

1) Supreme Court justices.

2) Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.

No thank you. McCain is not in this to fix anything. He is in this to continue the agenda that Bush has pushed of corporate profiteering and perpetual war. Vote Democrat, regardless of who the nominee is.

[ruddypoo86]

I don't know what how i got along before veraficier, gives you everything you need to know concisely and with just the right amount of context and background info.

Yeah, Hillary does do well in the big swing states, you have to give her that. But with the way her rhetoric is going towards the right, in national election she wouldn't be an alternative to McCain, she'd simply be a derivative of him.

I hope Obama gets the nomination at the convention but for God's sake man enough with the gaffes.

[freff]

Honestly, I don't think he's had anymore gaffes than anyone else, and that for damn sure includes McCain. The problem is Obama has both Clinton and the entire Republican party ready and willing to jump on and make hay out of any potential Obama misstatement that they can get their hands on.

Clinton just promised us that we'll get involved in ANY conflict in the Middle East, using wording right from prominent neoconservative think-tanks, and the press gave her a pass. Think about that one.

[ruddypoo86]

I agree, he's under a lot more scrutiny than both McCain and Hillary, but that is all the more reason why he can't give them any ammunition.

I just shudder to think what will happen if Hillary gets the nomination, the national election will simply be a contest of who can be the biggest hawk between her and McCain, and American foreign policy will continue to be a major problem for both the U.S and the rest of the world. Honestly, after 8 years of Bush it's like no one has learned their lesson.

[gallomex13]

let see Hillary is acting like a republican to beat a fellow Democrat to go against another republican living us with THE SAME BULLSHIT.

I mean the republican would be extremely happy to go against Hillary and this older voters still so use to the same old bullshit politics that they eat it all up not questioning why would Hillary act like a republican and lie and lie and keep on lying to WIN.